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Armchair Jockey – can you please answer/check your PMs. The prize winner from the competition you sponsored still hasn’t received his prize depsite repeated reminders to you from me. Can you sort it out please.
This 5f at Longchamp is about the shortest/easiest 5f in Europe,that will suit
Captain Dunne
perfectly as he struggles to get the full 5f incredibly,i know i must have lost my marbles to be deserting Inxile but i am convinced the Captain has a big one in him,here’s hoping anyway.
Captain Dunne
£50 e/w 14/1 Betfred,(new book) 2.45pm Longchamp.
£3161
You must be absolutely sick + tired of getting beat a short-head in 5f races. Incredible. You’re flying right now, simply flying, well done.
You must be absolutely sick + tired of getting beat a short-head in 5f races. Incredible. You’re flying right now, simply flying, well done.
Those 2 photo finishes that i would glady take Dead-heats for have done me out of almost 2 Grand Zarkava so i wont pretend it doesn’t bother me but i am trying to show by doing this thread how my approach is to betting Professionally.Cormack has kindly allowed me to contribute to the Forum again through this thread,i have assured him i wont be contributing to any other thread so as not to offend anyone.Cheers, Gord.
Delighted to hear you’re allowed to stay, your presence has been missed by myself and others. Get Gerald back now!
Cheers Zarkava,Gerald was in good form the last time we communicated a couple of weeks ago,i told him i missed his Grand National posts.
Summary of wagers for the past fortnight.-
PLACED WINNERS,- DEAUVILLE FLYER,12/1 £100 E/W. HORSERADISH,5/1,£50 E/W. STRIKE UP THE BAND, 16/1 £50 E/W. CAPTAIN DUNNE,14/1 £50 E/W.
TOTAL WAGERS,24,
WINNING WAGERS,11
LOSING WAGERS, 13
TOTAL INVESTED £5200
TOTAL RETURNS £8380TOTAL PROFIT £3180.
Rule number 1 when betting to a set of consistent rules is to bet to level stakes,i need to look into that closely as it has impacted on my profit considerably.
There’s a lot of talk about which of Aidans horses will line up for the Derby bearing in mind he still has 21 entered,i think we can narrow that down to about 4 with realistic chances,
Seville
,
Recital
,
Treasure Beach
,and possibly
Roderic o Connor
.He has to run Seville,this fellow has barely a length to find with the 7/4 Derby Fav,if thats the case he should run
Regent Street
as his pacemaker,this horse only has to take him to the 2 pole and Seville will do the rest,it helps that both horses are owned by Michael Tabor,as is Treasure Beach but i cant see him lining up as he looks already like their St Leger horse,Recital has a dodgy head carriage and looks like a step down to a mile would suit better than a step up,he has plenty speed about him,Chantilly would suit.Roderic o Connor has Dewhurst form of the highest order and he could be the Dark horse.Aidan has a high opinion of
Marksmanship
too but inexperience has to count against his chances of lining up,as for this
Pour Moi
,he may aswell stay in France as his action wont be suited to Epsom and i cant have him at all.I still feel like a kid in a sweet shop stealing all this 7/1 about Seville when realistically if the horse that beat him is 7/4 then Seville should only be 7/2,strange.
http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Ra … 69,00.html
The more i watch it,the more convinced i am that Seville will avenge his Dante defeat at Epsom,Christophe was very easy on him.
Stop backing your boy for the Derby and start backing him for the Leger.
The stats for that will test even you sacred one,a Doncaster Futurity/racing post trophy runner-up winning the leger! At least he has the stat for being a Racing Post Trophy contender winning the Derby to support him.
KF: If you get the opportunity would you cast your weel trained eye over the Epsom Derby DASH please. I know you like Captain Dunne who is the current ante post favourite but i believe i have found one at 20s that represents excellent value given a half decent draw!
Group Therapy has recently joined David Barron who loves his sprinters and this lad has excellent form in the book including the beating of Captain Dunne several times last season.
LTO (first run for Barron) at Newmarket he was drawn badly but still beaten less than 3lengths in a very good race, far better than the Dash ever is.
His only run at Epsom was in this race 2 years ago where despite being very badly drawn (4 of 18) he was not at all disgraced in finishing 5th, jockey did the right thing by trying to get a position early but obviously used up a lot of energy.
Recent runs have seen this lad never beaten more than 3l and generally a lot less and all in Class 1s, for me he is far too long at 20s (B365), the conundrum of course is whether he goes there (we do know that Mr Barron enjoys runners at the Derby meeting) and then there is luck in getting a middle to high draw. This one is best when he can jump and sit and then use his pace from the furlong marker.
I’d be interested in your comments if you get time, danger at 25s could be Masta Plasta who ran a superb race last season from 2!!
KF: If you get the opportunity would you cast your weel trained eye over the Epsom Derby DASH please.
Group Therapy has recently joined David Barron who loves his sprinters and this lad has excellent form in the book including the beating of Captain Dunne several times last season.
His only run at Epsom was in this race 2 years ago where despite being very badly drawn (4 of 18) he was not at all disgraced in finishing 5th, jockey did the right thing by trying to get a position early but obviously used up a lot of energy.http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Ra … 01,00.html
You get 10/10 for spotting the key formline to this years race there GDC,trouble isStrike up the Band
is so well handicapped he could miss the cut,he beat Group Therapy just under a length giving him 3lb there. This year he gets 21lb from your horse making him 24lb better off for beating him!Even the likes of Indian Trail who won the race is 16lb worse off,Captain Dunne who was 2nd is a massive 26lb worse off,even Masta Plasta is 12lb worse off with Strike on last years running so if Strike gets in he will make them all go.
Oldjosaid
is another almost as well handicapped as Strike but again on last years performance i have to say
Strike up the band
is my idea of a big priced winner,i took the 40’s on Saturday on Betfair,
Watch his price contract now!
Good luck with Group Therapy,i backed him myself in last years Kings Stand,he has the form in the book.Armchair Jockey – can you please answer/check your PMs. The prize winner from the competition you sponsored still hasn’t received his prize depsite repeated reminders to you from me. Can you sort it out please.
I think the word is Despite David by the way! Funnily enough i nearly had a Private Wager with AJ,kind of glad i didn’t now!
I have had quite a few private wagers with some on here,reet hard
,
Thehorsesmouth
and
Grasshopper
,all have been honourable to deal with,i remember a couple of years ago having one with Grasshopper,
Celestial Halo
(me) v
Hurricane fly
(him) in the Champion hurdle, nrnb thank goodness!
Having spent most of today studying,i haven’t seen a race,i decided to put my money where my mouth is and have backed my 2 ‘Losers’
Strike up the band
and
Captain Dunne
for the Dash at Epsom,incredibly there is nearly a 2 stone turnaround in the weights,favouring Strike and still the Captain is favourite!My concern that Strike may miss the cut is helped by the fact that Dandy has 6 declared and if Strike needs about 10 to drop out to guarantee a run,i’m sure Dandy will know what to do.Kevin ryan also has 6 declared and he will probably run 3 at the most,then there’s Richard Fahey with 4 and Tim Easterby with 3 so i am pretty confident Strike will get in,all he needs now is Good ground and a decent draw.I am staying loyal to the Captain even if he is Top weight because he has never been better,he is absolutely buzzing and if he brings his A Game to Epsom,he will just about make it home on a course that suits.
Strike up the band
£100 e/w 25/1 Hills,Epsom Dash.
Captain Dunne
£100 e/w 10/1 Victor Chandler, Epsom Dash.
£2780
KF: Many thanks indeed for your response. Sadly for one who has gambled for many years i still am not 100% understandable of ratings! I go on form and on specialist tracks course form. I have found from attending the Derby/Oaks for over 26 years that certain trainers have their horses primed for this 2 day meet.
I shall take an EW punt on Strike Up The Band (we all backed Fire up the Band) a few years back for this race and many other top sprints, the owner is a cracking gent and when in this country resides in Knightsbridge where we used to live and often gave us all the nod.
Good luck with the draw for your 2 mate
GDC,i pride myself on knowing how Dandy operates,its very rarely i get it wrong with his horses targets but one case in particular was with Fire up the band in the very race you mention.i was adamant Peace Offering was the one for that day,he was getting a ton of weight from Fire and i thought that would counteract against his poor draw,it didn’t! 1st and 2nd in the wrong order.I nailed him in his next race at Glorious Goodwood though when he won the Group 3 they run there,Fire up the bands finest hour that!Wasn’t he owned by Peter Barker originally?
Cannot remember his name but he owns half of the property in Knightsbridge, his colours were the black, white and red small checks.
I remember the race well and also the Goodwood one, we did very well from his information. He used to go into Billys next to Hyde Park and stump up a couple of thousand EW and then say it was loose change LOL He was nice though, always gave the staff and ‘homeless tramp’ a few notes!
I try to second guess Dandy too, got Evens and Odds right last year the week before Pricewise tipped him up (Goodwood or Ascot i think) and that paid for the skiing holiday
It is imperative to get at least a middle draw at Epsom though and if you can be fast enough away to sit up then you have it made.
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