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Having just seen Midday walking around the parade ring,i have to say she is the size of a bull,i have seen her looking a lot tighter than that in the past so in my opinion will improve a ton for this run,i have always liked her stable companion so have had a bet on her instead.
Timepiece
£100 win 5/1 Bet365 2.0pm York
£1250
I remember vividly
Workforce
being beaten in the Dante last year,it certainly left more questions than answers,’Zarkava’ was quick to mention how bad the stats were too regarding his Derby chances and the reason i mention that is because it wouldn’t surprise me if this years Derby winner actually comes second today.I am absolutely certain
Seville
wants 11/2m,i can see him powering up the Epsom straight and going clear at the 2 pole,obviously i want him to show he has a bit of speed too so victory today would just cement my opinion of him,i reckon he will go off 6/4fav today.Another horse who really doesn’t want to be coming back in trip is World Domination,he could find this trip on the short side as he looked better the further he went at Newbury.I believe Carlton House is the 11/4m horse and todays conditions could be ideal for him,however i like the fact that connections of Yaseer are not afraid to take him on again that tells you something about the confidence in him.I hope its run in a proper Group race gallop and
Seville
shows why i rate him on a par with Workforce.
Cant take anything away from the winner but Epsom is a different ball game.I’m more confident about
Seville
at this point than i was
Workforce
last year!
Exciting times.My original Hambleton selection Balcarce Nov is a non-runner so i have taken
St Moritz
at 8/1 instead,his run behind the potential Group 1 winner Side Glance was better than the bare form shows as he was giving the winner 3lb that day and there is no horse of that quality in this,he did beat my original selection at Doncaster the other week too,that was the deciding factor to go with Balcarce as he was 8lb better off for 3/4l today,i like this fellow a lot and if he needs to battle he will,he has to have a great chance of at least a place and also holds Dandys stable mate on last years form.
St Moritz
£50 e/w 8/1 BetFred, York 3.0pm
If
Margot did
what she was capable of then her form through Memory and Hooray is well above the odds on favourites,i shall take yet another risk on her anyway!
Margot Did
£200 win at SP.
£1650
KF: Good luck with your O’Brien horses BUT how you think Seville will turn the tables on Carlton House is beyond me.
Sir Michael will have this one finely tuned come the 4th June, i am sure neither were 100% ready yet but CH won this very very easily indeed and after pulling early he was not in the slightest knocked about or ridden vigorously. Ryan Moore waved the whip a couple of times and he flew, there is a whole lot more to come!
As i always say though, let’s just hope all these good horses make it there come the big day and in their best form.
Good Luck though mate
KF: Good luck with your O’Brien horse BUT how you think Seville will turn the tables on Carlton House is beyond me.
GDC,6 months ago i narrowed the Derby field down to 3 horses,(re,TAPK notes).Sea Moon, Carlton House and
Seville
,i put them up at 16/1,20/1 and 14/1 respectively,Sea moon was the pricewise selection and even though he hasn’t shown anything yet i’m sure he will,that narrowed it down to 2,i could say i took the 20/1 about Carlton House but i didn’t,i made a decision that was based on who did i think would get round Epsoms 11/2m the quickest and after much thought and study i decided on Seville. After todays result many will think i tossed a coin wanting heads and its come up tails,i’m not so sure,first thing neither were 100% fit today,both will come on a ton,the pace suited the speed horse and i always thought Carlton House was the speedier thats why i think his best trip will still be 11/4m,Seville on the other hand did a steady piece of work for 1m today,Christophe had quite a hold on him,when push came to shove the quicker horse won,Carlton House is a big brute of a horse,his action is rounder than Sevilles and there’s a bit of temperament,a hot sunny Derby day on fast ground and he has to be a Workforce to win,he well may be.Seville if given a ‘At first Sight’ sort of pacemaker will relish the step up in trip a faster surface and the whole experience,its between the 2 and may the best horse win,i have backed Seville from 16/1 down to 5/1 and even taken a bit of 7/1 after todays event,7/4 Carlton House is too short considering Epsom will be a whole different ball game imho.
KF: Nice explanation mate and best of luck with the bet. I totally agree that neither Christophe or Ryan were hard on their horses and both will come on bundles for the race.
Personally (ignoring the fact i’ve backed CH) i still believe CH will have the measure of Seville but cometh the day may just have to have an EW saver on Seville.
Fallon has confused the issue by contradicting himself with comments about Recital being No 1 and then Seville!
The horse at a price that may come back into the picture is Nathaniel, i think this one will go very well in the St Leger but may now be able to run into a place or better with the race being run ti suit, the long straight will without doubt assist him.
Bring on the 4th June
The horse at a price that may come back into the picture is Nathaniel, i think this one will go very well in the St Leger but may now be able to run into a place or better with the race being run ti suit, the long straight will without doubt assist him.
Bring on the 4th June
I agree with you GDC,
Nathaniel
really caught my eye at Chester,that performance had St Leger written all over it,i wouldn’t put anybody off backing him for the Derby either,he is an e/w price at 33/1 with Stan James.
I have a sneaky feeling that
Crackentorp
can run a big race today even though he has never actually won a race on turf but his 2nd in this race last year to Hanoverian Baron stands out particularly now that he is a massive 13lb better off for just over 2 lengths,i can see his stablemate
Deauville flyer
also making his mark with Kieren Fallon on,he too looks attractively marked and holds The Fonz on C/D running.
Deauville flyer
£100 e/w 12/1 Bet365 2,0pm York
Crackentorp
£50 e/w Bet365 16/1 Bet365 2.0pm York
£1750
If
Duncan
is in the right frame of mind,ie like the day he ran against Harbinger at Ascot then he really is different class to this field,his time that day was superb and we all know the clock never lies.I am certainly giving him the benefit of the doubt.
Duncan
£300 win 3/1 Tote, Yorkshire Cup
£2650
KF: Great shouts again today, a good couple of days mate. I shall take note of your Oaks and Derby Day selections if they are up before i travel
Duncan had the run of the race but they never got near him
There’s only one filly who could have ran in the 1000gns in this 3,0pm at York and thats
Theyskens Theory
,again i take her fitness on trust but York is a class meeting where class horses run and i believe she is different class to this field,i shall have an interest bet as i like her form with 2 very good Godolphin horses,Blue Bunting and White Moonstone.
Theyskens theory
£100 win 11/4 Corals 3,0pm York
£2925
I shall take note of your Oaks and Derby Day selections if they are up before i travel
Cheers GDC,my Derby horse is called
Seville
he had an excercise gallop around the Knavesmire yesterday to wake him up from his slumber,he will be wide awake on Derby day rest assured!
This 4.10 is a tough handicap at York and i am finding it tough to split
Horseradish
and
Hoof it
,the former doesn’t want it too firm and the latter might just prefer 5f,however both are potential Group/listed horses in the making.
Horseradish
£50 e/w 5/1 Corals 4.10pm York
Hoof it
£50 e/w 15/2 William Hills 4,10pm York
£3406
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