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Ginger, Dutch Art beat Cockney Rebel a short head in the St James’ Palace.
KF, your logic is partly right but it would be stated (in logic terms) as 100% i.e. he stays or 0% he does not stay. A switch cannot be 25% on or off as you quite rightly assert.
Although far from certain to get a mile, Casper Netcher does stand "a" chance (I’d say around 25%) of doing so. Less if going puts emphasis on stamina.
Casper might take more after the dam than sire. So there is a fair (
I estimate 25%
) chance of Casper Netcher
staying a mile
.
Right thats twice you’ve come out with that stupid comment! How do you come to that ridiculous figure of governing a horses chance of staying as a percentage? You Muppet! He either stays or he doesn’t you dick so it has to be a 50% chance its one or the other!
Do you really not understand percentages Gord?
It’s not as simple as saying "either he stays or he doesn’t"…"so it has to be a 50% chance one or the other". Because a horse has rarely got an equal chance of staying than not staying. Obviously not all horse’s chances of "staying" are 50/50. Parish Hall has only run at up to 7f, the same as Casper Netcher, but his breeding and temperament suggest he’ll stay 1m4f, let alone a mile. Therefore, Parish Hall’s chance of staying a mile I’d estimate as around 99%.
In Casper Netcher’s case, I believe he has 3 times as much chance of NOT staying as he does of staying. Therefore he has (imo) around a 25% chance of staying the trip.
Or to put it another way:
If4
horses with exactly the same temperament, breeding and form (including trainer, jockey etc) as Casper Netcher ran over a Newmearket’s mile on good-soft ground… I’d expect
1 of the 4
to stay the trip.
1 in 4 = 25%
.
Value Is EverythingGinger, Dutch Art beat Cockney Rebel a short head in the St James’ Palace.
Sorry, I meant the Guineas.
Value Is EverythingGinger, Dutch Art beat Cockney Rebel a short head in the St James’ Palace.
KF, your logic is partly right but it would be stated (in logic terms) as 100% i.e. he stays or 0% he does not stay. A switch cannot be 25% on or off as you quite rightly assert.
Some punters like to come up with a definite opinion, one way or the other EF, 100% or 0%. But in truth nobody knows for definite BEFORE the race, if a horse who’s never tackled the distance will stay. Therefore it can not be 100% or 0%.
Value Is EverythingI am always working in percentages. What is the chances of a horse staying? What’s the chance of it acting on the ground, getting the pace it needs, jumping well etc. Although I don’t actually allocate percentages to every aspect of form, the over all chance a horse has of winning a race is directly effected by each aspect of form.
If I assessed Casper Netcher’s over all chance of winning the 2000 Guineas by thinking he "will NOT stay" – Then he’d have to have a 0% chance of winning. That can not be right. The chances of him (or any other horse) staying (however large or small) must be factored in to the price I am willing to take.
There’s a horse running tomorrow called Hunter’s Light. When it ran on very soft ground at Goodwood last year I thought it
probably
wouldn’t act on the ground. However, when I looked at the Tote screen it showed 25/1. Upart from the ground question, other aspects of form gave him a good chance. Therefore, even though I thought Hunter’s Light
probably
wouldn’t act on the ground, he was a good bet at 25/1. Unfortunately someone else identified him as a value bet too, because in the 5 minutes from bet to the off it had changed to something like 10/1.
Value Is EverythingThe Whitbread has long been a favourite of mine going back to the days of those famous Pink colours of Fred winters
Plundering
,I remember an old fav of mine
Kildimo
giving weight to the legendary
Desert Orchid
in the 1987 renewal and giving him a fright jumping the last.’Kildimo’ was one of those characters who had his quirks,he was a long backed horse who never seemed to be able to arch it over a fence,he was a frustrating character too but he did win over the National fences after ‘Harvey Smith’ had re-educated him,he reminds me an awful lot of
Tidal Bay
and I can see Sandowns unique test bringing the best out of this fellow.Top weight concerns me none as if ever there was a ‘Top Weights’ course its Sandown,he’ll never get run off his feet round there as its not a Gallopers Course,the quick succession of fences might just keep this fellow interested,as for the opposition,not one of them is anywhere near the class of this old rogue,I can see a big performance coming!
Tidal Bay
£150 e/w 10/1 Bet365 Whitbread Gold Cup.
Amazing what dropping a stone in the weights can do for a horse, especially one of his ability.
Was my own selection on the main thread and when he won I thought "I wonder if??" Crossed my fingers but something told me before I opened your post you would have
Well done mate!!!Well done on Tidal Bay gord.
Any thoughts on SANTCUAIRE as you know i back him at 50/1 to win champion chase.Very impressive today he was.Am excited about him next year.He put that SPRINTER SACRE in his place
And what you think of IMPERIAL MONARCH am not sure myself he come on a ton for that run as well.Not sure what to think.
Forget to ask you gord there is a nice horse making his debut tomorrow at Navan.FATHER OF SCIENCE i been going on about him on twitter for the last month.I think he could be a decent horse.
Any thoughts in his pedigree.Well done with Tidal Bay today Gord, would’ve won with another 10 lbs on his back. Exceptionally well handicapped, but just couldn’t bring myself to back such a dodgepot. An Arkle winner winning the "Whitbread"? What next?
Thought of you when Sanctuaire won too. He’d have given Sprinter Sacre a run for his money in the Arkle in that sort of form. Unlucky not to get a run for yours (money). Some performance! Not seen many jump faster. Should be even better on a firmer surface. Can’t help feeling that one day he’ll down tools at the start. Possibly needs to lead too. Might cry enough if taken on in front. Not that many will ever be quick enough to do so.
Value Is EverythingWhat’s next is if you think for 1 minute he’ll even take Sprinter Sacre on then you’re nuts.
For one he wouldn’t have a hope in hell of beating him but that apart why do you think Coral’s went 50/1 for the QMCC and PN told Daryl to go off like a bat out of hell then quicken up?
Sanctuaire outstayed the lot of them and that was the plan……but even PN wouldn’t have expected Dominic Elsworth still to be waiting and tucking his horse in at the water jump when it was plain Sanctuaire wasn’t for stopping.
They gave a class horse who might even stay 3 miles in time as soft a lead as you will ever see.
He has already shown he gets 2m3f with ease and I’d bet a penny to a pound he goes for the Ryanair and steers well clear of Sprinter Sacre…Coralss could see that and no one but no one is rushing to back him for the QMCC
He may have a crack Sprinter Scare him early doors to test the water but make no mistake he will suffer the same fate all the rest have.
Wouldn’t surprise me if PN even had a crack at the King George with him if Kauto retires beforehand.
I asked my local Ladbrokes for £100 e/w at their 25/1 and they were quick to say No,not surprised with recent results but i’ll take it as a compliment.
Sanctuaire
£50 e/w 25/1 Ladbrokes, Arkle,Cheltenham.
I being the King of Loyalty made a fatal mistake in the 2m ‘Celebration’ chase yesterday by sticking just to
Somersby
,he ran creditably bearing in mind Dominic along with everyone else gave Daryl too much rope! I have been harping on about
Sanctuaire
since his sprint around Taunton treating every fence with contempt,yesterday he hurdled his fences and never lost ground at any of them.If he repeats that in the Champion chase of next year he’ll give this
Sprinter Sacre
a fright.Physically ‘Sprinter’ is the
Fist
of horses,a powerful brute with plenty of front,he’s a worthy favourite! ‘Sanctuaire’ is the smaller but equally effective sort, much more of a
TAPK
type and we all know how many times these 2 legends of the forum crossed swords!
I’m still kicking myself for not having something on him yesterday,even at 6/4 in running he was never going to get caught!
I being the King of Loyalty honestly thought
Tidal Bay
was a bloody certainty yesterday,it soon became apparent to me and those who know the horse he jumped with a rounded back something he never did in the past,I knew he would love the slow pace and awful conditions because he is a class horse and always has been,I took the 12’s on the machine midweek and sat and bet him in running at 6’s and 7/2,when he touched 6/4 I thought he will do exactly what he did and saunter home hard held.
Betting in running is the single greatest invention to horse racing
!Its a great feeling when you know your horses after following them for years and yesterdays result is undoubtedly right up there with my finest achievements! This year alone has seen some great Ante-Post successes with the likes of
Calgary Bay
,14/1 Sky Bet chase,
Synchronised
, 16/1 Gold Cup and
Sir Des Champs
,12/1 Jewson. My biggest sickener of a result was having £100 e/w on
Sunnyhill boy
for the National,absolute sickener to be chinned by the Ginger one on the line,he did me a massive turn in the Kim Muir though so I’ll forgive him!
Many thanks to all who have contributed to this thread for the past year and to all those who haven’t but couldn’t help themselves reading it!
Thanks to all the Bookmakers for continuing to support me,I hope you all got the publicity you deserved.Corals
for still pricing me any horse for any race I ask and
Bet 365
for laying me still!
Victor Chandler
could well have won some of their money back had they not closed my account with them after having only 1 bet with them,we know what that was eh?
This thread was always going to end after the year was up and it now is,I have one last Ante-Post bet to run so will do a final summary next Saturday.Having seen the thread break the 50,000 views I can honestly say that it was a rollercoaster ride worth riding.Like the other 4 threads I have created in the past it has finished in profit!More luck than judgement? Nah Knowledge and Patience said the Fisherman….I’veGone Fishing
!
Awesome reads all the way through, i for one have thoroughly loved reading your comments and following many of your selections.
Damn shame to see you depart and hopefully you will pop back now and then with the odd comment and selection.
Good luck and best wishes
Very kind of you to say GDC,you’re a fine student of form yourself!
Kingfisher
has served as a lesson for humility but anyone who has read me over the years knows me as ‘TAPK’
I have returned in that guise again and will continue to contribute to this superb forum under my original name! Now then who’s this years Chester Cup winner? Read on under my new thread called ‘A Kings Ransom’Been a great read Gord/TAPK/Kingfisher. Good to see it end profitably. Is it £2500 profit with Tidal Bay added? Turning back the Tide like King…
Any idea how much money was staked on this thread?Ironic, your last bet (win) being Camalot. A fitting place for one King to die and another’s reincarnation.
Good luck for the future TAPK
Ginge/Mark
Value Is Everything
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