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Quote: from SwallowCottage on 12:21 pm on Mar. 22, 2007[br] I still think Scott will come good sometime though. <br>
<br>I also said that Adam Scott was a player that I would be betting on regularly this year.
Well, he has just won his first PGA of the year at the Houston Open at odds of 16/1 which means that I should be celebrating…….only trouble is that I didn’t back him:angry: I must learn to engage brain before placing bets on golf.
This week it’s the Masters at Augusta which is my favorite tournament of the year. I’ve never backed the winner and I don’t expect this will change this year. I think that Tiger will win but my money will be wasted on
H.Stenson who is the most improved player over the last year imo. He has the mental strength and ability to win. ÂÂÂ
G.Olgilvy who has the experience of winning a major and has been in good form recently.<br>Others I respect are Els,Garcia,Immelman,Mickelson and Singh. The Masters is being shown live on BBC.
Stenson & Ogilvy will have to be considered, though I will probably stop short of backing the former. I think there are loads of chances in this tournament, although unfortunately all but one of these chances rest on how Tiger Woods plays. If he has one of his best weeks, I can’t see him losing.
As we know, the Masters is all about negotiating the Augusta greens. So the sensible option is to check who leads the PGA Tour in putting average. The current leader, by 0.02 putts per hole, is Ernie Els. I have backed him for the Masters more times than I care to mention, but knowing that his putter’s hot means I’ll probably find myself doing it again. At 12s I’ll probably make him my main bet.
Another interesting find on inspection of the Houston Open leaderboard was Angel Cabrera. Finished strongly on Sunday with a 67, which was only beaten by 3 men in the whole field. And had it not been for a triple bogey on Thursday, he would have found himself comfortably in the top 10. He hasn’t got the best putting form this year, but has no less than 3 top 10 finishes at Augusta down the years, so he’s clearly got an idea of what the greens are doing. He’s also hitting the ball out of sight, which can help at the Masters, especially nowadays. I’ll be having a cheeky each-way tilt on him at 100/1.
Adam Scott won just yesterday, as SC already said. Winning, especially having a very strong Sunday, the week before is definitely something I look out for. He’s had a top 10 at Augusta before, but that was 5 years ago and he’s never done better than T-22nd since. He’s long and has a good short game, which is the bread and butter of cracking the Augusta National. He’s also a former Player’s champion, so he’s got what it takes to win big events, although he tried his utmost to throw that tournament away! But that was 3 years ago, and he’s done a lot of growing up since then. I don’t think I’ll take much if any of a bite at 33s, but one for the shortlist.
Woods is an obvious choice, but I just thought I’d point out that he is 162nd in driving accuracy on Tour. if they decide to lengthen the rough at the Masters this year, he could be in a spot of bother. However, his putting is 17th. You may not think that’s the best, but when you consider that he’s only 20th in driving distance, even with his monstrous length, you know how tough these individual Tour stats are to top (hence my Els fancy). If you’re a serious punter, you could do worse than to lump on Tiger, although I see little value at 5/4. But the old addage is correct, better a 5/4 winner than a 50/1 loser.
Ive backed Adam Scott at 33s e/w.<br>Just in relation to those comments about Donald. Augusta favours the short drivers with exceptional iron play. Donald said in an interview yesterday that the course suits him.<br>My other e/w punt will be on The Goose, cos i always back him!
The fact that Woods played very untidily and still finds himself just 4 back seems fairly ominous to me. He’s still 5/4 in Lads aswell.
Donald is a great player, and as much as Augusta is long and fast, anyone can win there. I have no doubt that Luke can maintain his challenge, but if it’s pressure time on Sunday and he’s hitting 6-iron to 14 whilst his rival is hitting 9, I know who’s got the best chance.
I’m not even going to suggest another selection now, seeing as my two are nowhere to be seen. Time for me to give up the golf betting!
Last day now. Can’t see Woods losing from here, unless his and Appleby’s respective driving goes all ‘Freaky Friday’ on us! Not since Faldo in 1990 has a player won the Masters from outwith the last pairing, so the stats say Woods or the Australian (who I got an each way sneak in at 25/1 yesterday before play) will don the jacket tonight. You can get Woods at 1.95 on Betfair still, in opposition to 4/6 with the bookies. The former is good value, and I’ve had a little bit of it.
I’m going to revive this thread for the US Open, starting tomorrow. I’ve not had much of a punt because I fancy the field at large to win this versus the big names, with many of the big boys not exactly firing just now. Els is on horrible form, Vijay’s is shaky, Tiger is not a US Open player due to his erratic driving, he wins these on his class alone if he does. Phil’s surely thrown this tournament away enough times to put most punters off, Furyk’s been quite quiet and Adam Scott had a a poor finish last week.
My two bets have been for two guys to make top 10. Retief Goosen is an authority on the cloud cuckooland courses that the USGA use to represent them and out of form or not, he has the temperament, accuracy and putting to have a decent run at a tournament which will almost certainly be won with pars over birdies. At 4.5 on BF just to make the top 10 I found him to be good value.
My banker however for the top 10 is Padraig Harrington. A maestro with the putter at his best, he will have a good standing on greens that by most accounts will be quite close to crazy golf. He also won his ‘home’ Open last time out, so is clearly in form. His US Open record is also pretty stand-out: 4 top 10’s in 9 appearances. He was another who fell by the way last year to allow Ogilvy the title; he only needed to par 17 and 18 on Sunday last year and it would be him that we were hailing as the defending champ this week. All in all, a pretty good candidtae to be in the mix, and at 3.75 to make the top 10, a real steal in my eyes.
Good luck Friggo with your selections. Harrington’s not had a bad start and could get better from now on.<br>I forgot to put my selections on here partly because I am staying a lot at my brother’s cottage this summer which has no internet:(
As the first round has been played then this may sound like aftertiming but the 5 guys I’ve backed for the US Open are
Adam Scott – currently at number 4 in the official world golf rankings and showed again at the Memorial what an excellent player he can be when making 62 in the second round. If he can cut out some of the wayward shots he tends to make then I’m hopeful he can win his first major. Backed him early on at odds of 42/1.
Stewart Cink – A player who is very consistent and arrives here in good form with three top 5 finishes in his previous five tournaments. He could be making lots of pars etc on this difficult course whilst others are falling behind and out of contention.
Sean O’Hair – has been in good form recently and showed how good he can be in the Players when contending the lead in the final round with Mickelson. A long hitter who is also accurate and has the game to win if coping with the pressure imo. ÂÂÂ
Justin Rose – has suffered from back problems this year but showed in the Masters ( T5th ) and recently at Wentworth ( 2nd ) that he is in good form and should be full of confidence. Renowned for having difficulties in closing out winning positions ( never won on the pga tour yet ) but he has the game to win a major imo and hopefully his experience in the Masters will help him with his mental strength.
Lucas Glover – another player who has the distance for this course and often gets into contention in tournaments without winning. He could provide a shock victory here if playing to his best.
So far Scott is the only player who looks out of contention but you never know with him. I’ve never backed the winner of a major and doubt if I will this time.
Well, well, well. Angel Cabrera, who I tipped for the Masters at 100/1, has won the US Open. I am gutted, even tough I did make some dough on him in running. I’m happy for the European Tour, as we’ve made a habit of winning this event in recent years to stick it right up the yanks and their ‘par golf’ Open.
Roll on Carnoustie, where I can hopefully make some real money! Perhaps it will even get ‘the champion it desreves’, eh Davis?
It was very interesting reading through this thread and the ‘upcoming’ names that were branded about as ‘golfers to watch in the future.
Immellman, Scott and Stenson were the names mentioned most, however the fact that they are all in the top 20 in the world and are generally at the forefront of the betting for most tournaments they play, hardly make them up and coming golfers to watch. In my opinion. Adam Scott is the 2nd biggest bottler on the tour, the amount of tournaments he should have won but threw it away in the last round remains countless. For the record, the biggest bottler on the tour is undoubtedly Justin Rose. You can almost put your mortgage on this guy being one of the early round leaders, but again he just doesn’t know how to finish a tournament off.
Anyway, I am going to throw a golfer at you to watch on the European Tour. In an average tournament he is generally around the 50/1 mark, but in the big European events when the big names turn out he is usually massive odds. His name is Maartin Kaymer and he is a young German golfer being hailed as the new ‘Bernhard Langer’. Personally I would just back him blind every week until he becomes so well known the odds don’t reflect his true chances. He is a star of the future for certain.
Mike
Good to read your comments Mike. I think that the golfers for the future ( Immelman, Scott, Stenson ) written about on here were for betting purposes and to be fair anybody who had followed them since they were mentioned would be laughing all the way to the bank……. at the moment anyway. Not sure about the immediate future – Immelman caught a bad virus which has effected his game, Stenson seems to have gone off the boil and Scott has played awful in his last two tournaments.
I strongly disagree that Scott is a bottler but there is an unbelievable amount of rubbish written about bottling. Somebody even described VJ Singh as a bottler a few months ago!!
Scott has won at least 10 tournaments on the us,euro and asian tours ( including the Players which is known as the 5th major ) and you don’t do that at the age of 26 if you are a bottler. His record of winning from the front is quite impressive and he has won a lot more times than he has lost when being at the top of the leaderboard at the start of the final day.
Justin Rose does have a big reputation of not been able to close out winning positions so I can’t argue with your assessment of him. I think that once he does get a win on the pga then he’ll get over this problem.Jeremy Chapman tipped Martin Kaymer as a golfer to follow this year ( he also mentioned Kim who has played well on the US tour so far this year without winning ) and good luck with your bets on him.
Let us know who you think will win the Open – I never get the winners at the majors.
Hi SC
Yes I may have gone over the top with describing Adam Scott as a bottler, but I would say that most of the tournaments he has won from the front have been in far less company than the ones he has lost from the front. I know Butch Harmon thinks he is a wonderful player and you have to respect his opinion, but for me he is just not a betting proporsition until he can regularly contend at the highest level.
One thing you will notice when it comes to betting on big tournaments is that they are generally priced up in relations to their world ranking, regardless of how well they are currently playing. For example Woods will be favourite, Mickelson 2nd fav, Furyk 3rd fav, Singh and Scott high in the betting, along with Goosen. Goosen is a perfect example, he is always around the 20/1, 25/1 mark for the major events, yet his form over the last 18 months would warrant him to be at least 50/1 in my opinion, if not bigger.
Regards The Open, well I think if you go on current form it’s impossible not to back Niklas Fasth each way – in fact I already have backed him at very big odds. He is currently leading the European Open at the K Club but there is a weather delay, but his 4th in the US Open, then his win in Germany and his form this week despite having a heavy cold puts him up there as probably the in form golfer out of everyone.
Tiger Woods is a wonderful golfer but I am always against him at the odds, he is just always too short in the betting. After his 1st round of 3 over in this weeks A & T he was not even in the top 100, yet he was priced at 7/1 before the 2nd round, absolutely ridiculous, whether he goes on to win the tournament or not. I am a massive Colin Montgomerie fan and I am delighted to see his form over the last 2 weeks and I will definitely be having an each way bet on him also, but for him its between the ears with regards his winning chance.
I don’t think a European has won a Major since Paul Lawrie so you would have to worry about that and go for some non Europeans, and at the moment I am struggling to put up any selections but I will closer to the time. I am fed up of backing the likes of Luke Donald in Major’s so no doubt he will come good when I am not on.
But as for now, my main selection would be Niklas Fasth each way, but I will select more nearer the time. Right now I am going to watch the remainder of the European Open and hope that either Fasth can hang on to his lead or Monty can win as those are my 2 bets this week (I mentioned it on the main racing forum).
All the best,
Mike
With respect to these recent comments about all sorts of golfers being bottle-merchants, I think you have to put things into context. In football, you have only a split second to think of your next move. In tennis it’s 10 seconds tops. In golf it’s the best part of 5 minutes, and if you hit the front early it can be 24 hours of contemplation. That must be bloody difficult, even for the most mentally sound competitor. In saying that, I think Adam Scott is a serious nervous wreck when it comes to the crunch.
I’m looking very much forward to the Open and at this early stage, I’m looking at Stuart Appleby for a top 5, or top 10 at least. Good show in the Masters, made an Open playoff in 2002 and is having a good week at Congressional.
With respect to these recent comments about all sorts of golfers being bottle-merchants, I think you have to put things into context. In football, you have only a split second to think of your next move. In tennis it’s 10 seconds tops. In golf it’s the best part of 5 minutes, and if you hit the front early it can be 24 hours of contemplation. That must be bloody difficult, even for the most mentally sound competitor. In saying that, I think Adam Scott is a serious nervous wreck when it comes to the crunch.
I’m looking very much forward to the Open and at this early stage, I’m looking at Stuart Appleby for a top 5, or top 10 at least. Good show in the Masters, made an Open playoff in 2002 and is having a good week at Congressional.
Appleby is a ‘streaky’ player, a guy who must be followed when he is in form as he will quickly rack up 2 or 3 tournament wins in a short space of time. Appleby looked to becoming back to somewhere near his best but his final round last night has to be very worrying.
I have to admit that this years Open has me baffled. Apart from being very confident of a good showing from Niklas Fasth, I don’t really have any other strong fancies. A few years ago I couldn’t see Monty not contending at St Andrews and I backed him accordingly, so I was delighted to see him finish 2nd to Tiger. I mention that because I am getting the same feeling again about Monty. He will be back in his home country and his tee to green over the last 2 weeks has been majestic, himself admitting "I know exactly where the ball is going". But two years ago I backed him each way at 100/1, this year I guess he will be much shorter after his recent form so he may not be value.
I’ve already backed Fasth at bigger odds than he is currently trading at and I will probably back Monty regardless of the price becuase I would hate not to be on him if he ever won that 1st major. So my selections at this moment would be 2 each way bets on Fasth and Monty. I have a strong feeling that Els will go well, and so too could Geoff Ogilvy who plays difficult courses very well. Well, thats 4 selections so I better stop now lol.
Mike
Appleby is a ‘streaky’ player, a guy who must be followed when he is in form as he will quickly rack up 2 or 3 tournament wins in a short space of time. Appleby looked to becoming back to somewhere near his best but his final round last night has to be very worrying.
Couldn’t agree more with that. If he’s coming over for the Scottish Open this week I’ll be keeping a close watch to see how he reacts to that final round last night.
I’ll be having a closer look after Loch Lomond this week. I’ll be looking for someone who is fairly long, straight and has some sort of previous in the Open as Carnoustie is a genuine Open course, regardless of conditions.
The question is Mike – did Appleby choke yesterday when losing the lead or was he simply not good enough on the day. My own view is that it was the latter. He’d played 3 good rounds and was not able to maintain his form for a 4th day. I’m not a big fan of Appleby but I can’t argue with his record of 8 pga wins. I just think his tee to green game is not that good and I’m surprised he’s done as well as he has. He’s not a player I will be backing in the future ( which must give Appleby backers a lot of encouragement ! )
Well done on winning on Monty last week – will you be backing him for the scottish open? I was thinking of backing Donald ( I bet on him last year ) as I think the course really suits his style of play but he’s not been playing great recently by his standards and his present odds of 16’s does not look value to me – I was expecting at least 20’s. Maybe I’ll see if his price drifrs out when in play.
I’ll post my Open selections on here next week for all to laugh at
I agree SC, Appleby didn’t choke he just played poorly. The conditions weren’t that great with some strong winds (though not as fierce as in the US Seniors lol), though you would have thought Appleby could play well with wind. I just think the same as you, he played well for 3 rounds but couldn’t maintain it on the last day, that’s why, like Figgo says, he should be watched, because when Appleby does string it together he is a real force. But Like I say, he is a streaky player and will only play at his peak for around 6 weeks – but it wont be suprising to see him win a few times in that period.
Yes Monty did me a good turn yesterday. I actually had slightly more riding on Fasth but my heart wanted Monty to win so that has to be a first for me – my hear ruling before my wallet lol. No doubt I will be backing him this week at Loch Lomond and no doubt I will be backing Fasth again if he plays. I havent seen the field yet or the prices, but if Monty and Fasth do play and they are anywhere near the 20/1 mark I would be foolish not to back them each way again.
I will have a look at the field tomorrow and post my selections on Wednesday, but I know Goosen likes it around there, and because of his racent form he might be worth a bet if the odds are any value. It will be interesting to see if any Americans play in the event as I am sure most of them will be over here now trying to get used to the British weather and trying to get a low down on Carnoustie.
Speak soon,
Mike
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