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Lay , lay Lay … won’t stay !
He’ll be fine unless it is soft. Speed will be more important than stamina on the day.
He won over a mile on good to soft ground at two years of age and that’s a fair enough test for a horse if he’s at all a short runner.
There is a very serious lack of quality in the opposition. I have seen some who think Hans Holbein might outstay them all but, in my experience, the greater likelihood is that Golden Horn is going to be another Motivator, or Authorised, and come past these slower horses like a rat going up a drainpipe.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
AS you know Steve I am on them both but surely Golden Horn has the speed and class to put them in their place !! Hopefully Hans Holbein will run on past beaten horses for a place LOL Or maybe I am being greedy !!
This Golden Horn looks the real deal to me.
Anyone on this forum believe Golden Horn can run a strong mile and a half?? I know Elm Park will.
I don’t think he’ll stay 12f, he’s certainly not bred to, so he’ll be relying on a slow pace to give him a chance of lasting home.
Elm Park for me to now, he will have come on for his last run and he will stay.
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Off a slow pace, his turn of foot wins it. Off a fast pace he’ll save more energy than most with his relaxed style. It’s not as though all connections have suddenly decided on the back of the Dante, ‘Oh well, let’s chance it.’ The trainer has obviously been trying to persuade Mr Opp for quite some time that he has a Derby horse.
Also, according to Prufrock’s analysis of rail movements at York, (https://www.timeform.com/racing/articles/sectional-debrief-york%2c-dante-meeting-days-one-and-two-1552015) GH has, arguably, just 338 yards farther to travel. And given that his challenge came down the outside, it’s probably even shorter than that.
Gosden had a look about him after the Dante that suggested he’d prevail and it is clear he has always wanted to run him.
I can’t see the Derby being run at a slow pace to suit a favourite who some think has stamina doubts but I see no reason why Jack Hobbs or Elm Park will reverse the form at Epsom.
I don’t think there is any doubt GH will stay and his racing style will allow him to use his speed to just pick them off providing he is well placed coming down the hill. My only fear is the Dancing Brave scenario of giving him too much to do!! Go and get your money on Golden Horn will win the Derby and Elm Park and Hans Holbein will be placed.
Anyone got any prices for the tricast now!! LOLIt is possible of course that his class will carry him to the line, but he has a lot of stats to overcome. Very few horses have won the Derby who are out of a non staying mare, Golden Horn’s sire was a miler and his stayers have stout female lines. The bottom half is full of speed and he is from the family of Habibti, On the House, D’Uberville and Gentle Art. He goes back to Lady Josephine via Mumtaz Mahal and his sixth dam was full sister to sprinter Royal Charger. The final couple of furlongs may well find him out in a truly run race.
It would be good if he did win because Coolmore’s farming of the great race has become a trifle boring.Personnally Id love to see an Obrien horse win and I would not be surprised as we often see when you think hes got nothing he comes and floors everyone and at Epsom hel be keen to send a few …I thnk there are major doubts about Golden horn…and how on earth would John Gosden get the first two from his yard to come 1st and second in the dante and then win the derby..not saying it wont happen but in my opinion unlikely….think I read recently from a chap at the course where Golden horn ran state that his head was going sideways perhaps a sign that hes allout…hence the doubt about the final 2 furlongs….My thoughts are an Obrien outsider will pip them through pure endurance..Hans Holben looks like hed love the St Leger to me but if not him the master will be sending plenty of ammunition.
Personnally Id love to see an Obrien horse win and I would not be surprised as we often see when you think hes got nothing he comes and floors everyone and at Epsom hel be keen to send a few …I thnk there are major doubts about Golden horn…and how on earth would John Gosden get the first two from his yard to come 1st and second in the dante and then win the derby..not saying it wont happen but in my opinion unlikely….think I read recently from a chap at the course where Golden horn ran state that his head was going sideways perhaps a sign that hes allout…hence the doubt about the final 2 furlongs….My thoughts are an Obrien outsider will pip them through pure endurance..Hans Holben looks like hed love the St Leger to me but if not him the master will be sending plenty of ammunition.
Can’t think why a change of winning trainer would be anything but refreshing.
As far as I am concerned O’Brien has only one piece of ammunition and it’s being fired at the Irish 2000 Guineas. The horses he has left in the Derby are there only because so many of those who were favourite, or near favourite for the race at one time, were absolutely routed in the trials.
Golden Horn should line up at Epsom as the highest rated horse in the field, having won the best, some would say only worthwhile, trial for the race. He’s probably open to as much improvement as any, arguably more than anything, and he looked like he would stay in Dante. Barring mud and as long as the jockey doesn’t fall off or have his head up his bottom, Golden Horn will take the world of beating, and I hope he wins for the lads and lasses who took 50/1 the Derby/Dante double, or ante post for the Derby itself.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Not bred to stay – take in all the other imponderables at Epsom on Derby Day and there are better 7/4 chances.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"It’s the price that would keep me away for sure. Although saying that, I fancied Night Of Thunder to win the Lockinge but the big field put me off.
I’d like to think that Hughsie will get a good one for a derby success, but this game isn’t all fairytales.Stamina is almost always a critical element in the make up of a Derby winner, you just don’t get away with a lack in that respect. This fellow may yet turn out to have the necessary stamina but I think ID is right, 7/4 looks skinny enough.
It has the look of a sub-standard race, although that doesn’t necessarily preclude the winner turning out to be a star. I’d be really interested in Andre Fabre’s Grey Lion if he chose to send him given the apparent lack of depth.Stamina is almost always a critical element in the make up of a Derby winner, you just don’t get away with a lack in that respect. This fellow may yet turn out to have the necessary stamina but I think ID is right, 7/4 looks skinny enough.
It has the look of a sub-standard race, although that doesn’t necessarily preclude the winner turning out to be a star. I’d be really interested in Andre Fabre’s Grey Lion if he chose to send him given the apparent lack of depth.Someone posted that Grey Lion had a blood disorder. He was pulled out at Sandown because he had a high temperature.
Grey Horses, French Horses? I’m seeing a worrying pattern here
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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