- This topic has 369 replies, 40 voices, and was last updated 8 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Don’t wanna jinx him but he has as good a chance as any staying chaser of staying sound. He’s a nice moderate size with a light athletic frame. His jumping isn’t as good as Fastorslow, but neither is it a big flashy pelvis straining effort. He doesn’t pull and burn himself up, and he doesn’t have to front run hard and grind them to death like Native River (and grind himself down a bit more each time). He’s so classy and stays so well that no horse has been able to put him to the pin of his collar (ok he has been beaten twice by FOS but he wasn’t really redzoned either time like, for example, Bravemansgame was in the Gold Cup last year). Mullins normally handwrings a lot about how hard it is to keep staying chasers sound but has breezily said how well this horse recovers from racing and sounds like he wants to go to Punchestown (I thought he’d freak out after last year’s defeat – when Al Boum Photo got beaten it was a firm no the following year and he only went again the year after that when he was 9, beaten in the GC and on the way down). He’s French bred and I think Gavin Lynch produced some stat about how they actually last longer than ours (possibly by dint of being light and wiry rather than heavy topped tanks). He has a calm temperament at home/ travelling/ racing and isn’t a neurotic wreck who has a nervous breakdown if his race is postponed for a week or his silks are the wrong shade of yellow. Anything can happen…but he has a good chance of getting there in one piece for the treble.
The thing that might beat GDC at Cheltenham is the ground.
I know they water to provide at least “good-soft”, but times indicate they get it wrong sometimes and it’s actually proper Good going. GDC imo shows a slightly rounded action which may not be at its best on Good… And it also places far more emphasis on speed. If Fact To File improves (and he’s got the physical scope to improve) I’d fancy him to outspeed Galopin…Value Is EverythingNot sure fastorslow will fully stay the gold cup distance. Can see fact or file and gerri colombe being his biggest challengers. That was a big step up from the runner up. Should be a belter next march. Hopefully they all get there.
That said…
Mullins had no good horses for the Ryanair this season and may not want to get GDC beat in his third Gold Cup. If next year there’s no top horse for the intermediate Grade 1… Will he announce that Fact To File isn’t settling in his work well enough to stay 3m2f and will go instead for the Ryanair?
Value Is EverythingI would not rate GDC’s Gold Cup any better than last year’s performance tbh. But then again, maybe I rated his first performance better than most people on here. The second horse, Gerri C’ is better than last year’s second Bravemansgame, but GDC beat Bravemansgame further last year than he beat Gerri. I love Corach Rambler – one of my favourites – but he was beaten 9 1/2 lengths whereas a top form Bravemansgame was beaten just 7… And if anything a top form Braveman’ is a bit more than 2 1/2 lengths better than a top form Corach… Although the latter is still improving .
Value Is Everything“Mullins had no good horses for the Ryanair this season and may not want to get GDC beat in his third Gold Cup. If next year there’s no top horse for the intermediate Grade 1… Will he announce that Fact To File isn’t settling in his work well enough to stay 3m2f and will go instead for the Ryanair? ”
I think , “Go where you think you can win and win as many as you can” doesn’t apply quite as much for the Gold Cup. Especially since FTF will be 8 next year so realistically only has two chances to hand JP the big prize. Mullins doesn’t really care about the Ryanair, Allaho only went there cos they thought he wouldn’t stay, and stay sound, over further, and Min and Un de Sceaux because they couldn’t win a QMCC.The only ground that would likely be an issue to GDC is good quick ground and that is something Cheltenham will bend over backwards to ensure the race will not be run on – in any case, he won the Martin Pipe on good to soft and other races on yielding so I wouldn’t think that would be an issue.
No guarantee that FTF or any other pretenders will make the leap to GDC’s level and on pedigree there is a doubt whether FTF will want to go any further than 3m (one half brother won over 2m6f but other relations and his damn operated exclusively at 2m2f) and he doesn’t look a slow horse by any means, plus beating the likes of Monty’s Star and Zanahiyr is several worlds away from what will be needed in order to mix it with GDC.
As other have pointed out, he doesn’t have time on his side either (hence missing a hurdling campaign altogether) and I really could see running well up to 3m in races like the Savills and Irish Gold Cup but ultimately failing to really stay the Gold Cup trip and then dropping back to 3m and/or the Ryanair like Allaho.
Corbetts Cross to me looks more of a National type horse (similar to Gaillard Du Mesnil who won last year’s National Hunt Chase) and those typically (like Corach and Noble Yeats) struggle to be able to go the sustained Gold Cup pace and get outpaced at crucial parts of those races only to stay on too late in the day.
Its just a shame that Fastorslow checked out when he did, because connections never got the answer about the trip and so it will be likely that they will try again next year but my gut reaction is that (particularly on that ground) rather like LHP he would have faded between the last two and probably scapped it out for 4th with LHP.
All of that is subjective of course but in closing I do believe GDC is the best by quite a way and as good as he was today, I really don’t think the winning distance does justice to his superiority.
I cannot see Mullins running Fact To File in the Ryanair next year. JP is not getting any younger and I am sure he wants another Gold Cup winner.
The only way Fact To File runs in the Ryanair is if he gets beaten in a Gold Cup and connections realise he cannot win it, as with Protektorat this season.
No one in racing dreams of having a Ryanair winner.
You are correct regarding JP not getting younger and there is sad news going around concerning his health thst will apparently get worse as he gets older.
I’d be pretty sure that Fact To File and Galopin Des Champs will run in the Gold Cup next year if sound. Galopin is a worthy champion and, at this stage, I’d fancy him to land the hattrick.
If all fit Mullins has 3 big bullets in the Champion Chase so more likely one of them will run in the Ryanair
I’ve taken 10’s on it being Gaelic Warrior to win it as a cover bet
because I’d already had 25’s him winning the Champion Chase before he ran in the ArkleBlackbeard to conquer the World
Nathan I got 14s at Hills , he’s in a lucky 15 with CH champion hurdle , El Fab Champ chase and Ballyburn Browns adv chase
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.