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That’s very true boz, this years festival seems really open, and who the hell am I kidding I’ll no doubt be throwing more than just pocket change on this one haha.
Andrew you make a great point for CC, thinking about it 20/1 really is ridiculous odds for a horse who has performed so well in so many races, only thing as good as LR is, I don’t see him as the best horse in the race (having said that, I don’t know who the best horse in the race is), and if you’re to go big on CC you’d have to think LR is the one to beat, which although on record he may be, I don’t think in reality he is.
However, no matter which way you look at it, it’s all about value and 20/1 is great value.
Is it really impossible that Imperial call could win this?
I was very taken with saturdays run and given twisters subsequent comments, it was probably even more impressive than first appeared
Sure he’s not the youngest but its an open enough field and im not completely convinced that the leading contenders are brimful of class.
And same age as Tidal bay, who’s half the price (and im not easily ruling him out either)
Bounce could be an issue but three time the price of Flemenstar who will surely not stay in what will be a pace driven race surely?
And anyone trotting out stats about god knows what can get back in their box now. Im looking at what a very decent horse as done after a very long period off and am impressed
Agree 100% Clive, this horse is all class and age isn’t an issue. If he’s fit enough he will surely be involved.
Huge Imp fan.
But not for this race. Twisters may have left a little to build on but would no way run him if he wasn’t ready saturday. Receiving weight, if he was to win the gold cup he HAD to beat Cape Tribulation and convincingly. The Argento was a poor race with Gold Cup no hopers more than anything and the Imp almost did it. Against the less exposed progressers??? No chance.
If he does though, i’ll probably get massively pissed and cry.
I disagree, his Argento run was a tremendous effort on terrible ground. For a horse who’s had injury problems his jumping was impeccableIf he hadn’t had tanked round the first mile and a half he’d probably have won. CT is a much improved animal and I expect him to run well in the GC, but I firmly believe IC to be in the shake up come March.
IC wasn’t 100 per cent fit from what I’ve heard so there’s plenty more to come — and better ground would suit
IC has a great chance imo, he’s got the course, distance and festival form well and truely in the book, think the 7 week break will be perfect to have him 100% for the big day.
On form hard to see IC or CT involved can think of at least three better horses and IC has run to 154 ish on his Argento run so needs to improve 10lbs+ to figure, unlikely given his age, CT would be a more obvious contender as he probably ran to 160+ and that would be a minimum to win a GC.
IC has as much chance of winning a second GC as I have unless BW, LR, SDC, FL, CC, TGB and SC don’t turn up on the day. 7 horses plus CT. He’d have to outrun 5 better placed horses even to get an EW return.
If he gets into a nice rhythm he might be in there fighting coming down the hill but that is not for sure plus the better horses will just go past him. Nice to see him do a victory lap but that will be it.
Imperial Commander cannot win the Gold Cup – it is simple as that.
On form hard to see IC or CT involved can think of at least three better horses and IC has run to 154 ish on his Argento run so needs to improve 10lbs+ to figure, unlikely given his age, CT would be a more obvious contender as he probably ran to 160+ and that would be a minimum to win a GC.
IC has as much chance of winning a second GC as I have unless BW, LR, SDC, FL, CC, TGB and SC don’t turn up on the day. 7 horses plus CT. He’d have to outrun 5 better placed horses even to get an EW return.
If he gets into a nice rhythm he might be in there fighting coming down the hill but that is not for sure plus the better horses will just go past him. Nice to see him do a victory lap but that will be it.
Imperial Commander cannot win the Gold Cup – it is simple as that.
You’re going to eat those words come March
Bar the mistake at the last, great round for Sir Des Champs. Still him and Bobs Worth for me, will be fighting out next years finish.
Nice foresight – April 24th 2012. Still think the same.
Leaning towards Silviniano Conti. Previously thought to be a flat track horse, Ruby Walsh thinks he’s the real deal and that’s good enough for me. Looking for a big run on Saturday to enhance his credentials.
Hi all,
This is my first post on here so be gentle!
This years gold cup is the first in 5 years that is giving me a headache!
I’ve read the formbook to death and studied all the races leading up and am still no closer to picking my winner..
Silviniaco Conti looks full of class, however, lack of festival and course form is a big concern. However, I like him a lot and I suspect after he hoses up on Saturday his price will be halved.
Bobs Worth won the Hennessey really well and has the relavant festival and course form and will stay all day, my one doubt with him is…what has he actually beat??
Moving on to Long run, who I have backed for the past 2 years, has he lost a bit of pace at the end of his race, I suspect he has and no disrespect to Sam, I’d much prefer Barry on board.
Sir Des Champs looked a gold cup winner after his festival success last year and ticks all the boxes, however, his jumping was poor in the Lexus and has it all to prove.
I don’t think Flemenstar will get the trip and will go for the Ryanair.
The form of Bobs Worth and the two Irish horses tie in with Tidal Bay whom I hope goes for the World Hurdle. Can we say Tidal Bay has ber rejuvenated under Paul Nicholls? I’m not convinced…..
Head says Bobs Worth but I can’t get away from how classy Silviniaco Conti has looked in his 2 races this season. I need to make my mind up before Saturday as I’m greedy and want the best price!
I’m also going to have a small e/w touch on Bog Warrior before the Irish Hennessey at 66’s in the hope he runs a huge race there and he goes to the Gold Cup.
Hi Harchi,
I boiled it down to form through Tidal Bay. Bobs Worth, Tidal Bay, Flemenstar, First Lieutenant and Sir Des Champs all tie in closely. However, Nicholls first string seems to be Silviniaco Conti and he has already beaten Long Run. If Conti is a better horse than Tidal Bay, which i’m assuming as Ruby Walsh seems keen on him, then it was a no brainer for me.
Good luck whichever horse you go for!
I’m with you SYT, Silviniaco Conti boasts top notch form and at 7/1 is a knocking bet. I have him, IC and TB as my trio for the race. SC’s defeat of LR at Haydock and LR’s subsequent incredible win in the KG reads well to me and if he can jump well has a great chance.
Walsh wants to ride Silvinicao Conti cause of his amazing jumping but Bobs Worth already has had his head in front of him before and that was going right handed which played into SC’s hands more than Bob Worth and cant see a turn in form there.
Can see First Lieutenant running a massive race who keeps on improving with each run this season and probably the horse that can get closest to Bobs Worth but its Bobs Worth for me.
Hi all,
The form of Bobs Worth and the two Irish horses tie in with Tidal Bay whom I hope goes for the World Hurdle. Can we say Tidal Bay has ber rejuvenated under Paul Nicholls? I’m not convinced…..
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If Tidal Bay runs in the World Hurdle it would be a disgrace! How anyone could say this is the right race for him is beyond me! The only thing you have to think of is if Big Bucks was still in the world hurdle then this race wouldnt even be on the radar for TB, in fact he wasnt even in the betting until BB was ruled out. Tells you all you need to know! Ruby is being selfish, and i would much rather have Daryl Jacob on his back anyway. I suspect it is purely to save Ruby making the wrong decision on gold cup day!
TB doesnt deserved to be messed around like that, this is realisticly his last season so deserves to go out on a high with a last crack at the big one!
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