April 25, 2007 at 06:47 #3445
The purpose of this thread is to provide an area where members can ask for and provide Going Assessments based on a) Local Knowledge prior to racing and b) Time Based Assessments during a meeting.
So, to get things started: Any views on whether Perth will be riding Good/Soft today?
Time Based Assessment after first two races:<br>The time of the 1st race 5m23.6 suggests – SOFT <br>The time of the 2nd race 6m26.6 suggests – SOFT
NB: Racing Post Website – Good/Soft<br> Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Sportinglife Website – Soft
The Racing Post advised the Offical Going as Good/Soft prior to racing which in part prompted me to start this thread. However, in its results section the Offical Going is stated as Soft, this may have been changed during racing at its time based assessment is Heavy.<br>
(Edited by Pompete at 10:03 pm on April 26, 2007)April 28, 2007 at 19:10 #84436Ultimate NightmareMember
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I’d like to know how they calculate the "Time" going as in the thread on the Racing page. There were 2 course records on "Good" "Time" going? One of the horses was then said to not have produced anything special. It can’t be both how do they calculate it?April 29, 2007 at 00:50 #84437
UN…I don’t know who ‘they’ are so unable to answer your question.
However, on a wider point I was hoping that this thread may provide a place where any quieres regarding a going forecast may be aired and a decent guessestimate given by those local to a course or those that use time as an indicator. For example at the meeting above I had a strong fancy for Patricksnineteenth and considered having a decent bet, the sort I have maybe twice a year or so. However, I would only have done so if I knew or was confident that the going was Soft and not as advised Good/Soft. The problem is that I live 200 miles from Perth so have no idea of the local conditions and I would have welcomed some local input.
On the issue of a Time Based Going…I do believe there is a place for it in a punters armoury. However, it along with standards and medians or whatever else with regard to time, should be used with caution and only in addition to other perhaps other more reliable factors.
Imo…if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a ducks…it’s probably a duck…regardless of what any Time Expert may say. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ÂApril 29, 2007 at 09:53 #84439dave jayMember
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It’s very difficult to assess the going of a course after one race, if you could you would be onto a winner IMO.
I live about 2 miles from Ayr race course and I have tried to guess what the going will be there, depending on what the weather has been like. It’s very difficult because the course drains quite well and doesn’t hold the water .. unlike my back garden. Consequently, the going is affected more by extended periods of rain (where the water table has risen) rather than recent down pours which will simply wet the ground.
Rather then trying to get local knowledge Pete, you might have more success trying to handicap the first race and then reverse engineer what the time should have been .. change the time calculation around and make the GA your unknown quantity?April 30, 2007 at 10:15 #84442
Hi Dave…good point regarding recent down pours. I live about 2 miles from Bath racecourse and the same applies here it’s not always possible to guess what the going will be – But trust me if the Clerk of Courses claims it will be Good to Firm tomorrow I will run around the Premier Enclosure showing my b*****ks. It will be like the M4.
I agree with the one race assessment and always try and go for at least two. Anyway hopefully much of this will become redundant now we have the going stick :biggrin:April 30, 2007 at 10:44 #84445robnorthParticipant
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Unfortunately I didn’t notice your original post. There was a lot of rain in Scotland over the preceding two days, so it was no surprise to see the ground come up Soft.
I had a quick chat with a member of the Perth groundstaff on Friday. He tells me that the ground retains moisture well. In addition the section down the far side of the course was a bit softer than the home straight. They had held off watering in the few days before the meeting with rain forecast. <br>I understand the ground was described as ‘loose’ by the jockeys on Wednesday. The horses were struggling to get home, but on Thursday and Friday the sun had dried the ground significantly and horses were not nearly as tired at the finish, though there was still a noticeable cut.
RobMay 2, 2007 at 05:30 #84447
Hi Robnorth…interesting observations and for comparision I’ve listed the Offical and RP Timed Based Assessments:
Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Official Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Time<br>Weds Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Soft Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Hvy<br>Thurs Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Soft Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Soft<br>Friday Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Gd/Sf Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Soft<br>
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