- This topic has 150 replies, 13 voices, and was last updated 7 years, 5 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
It is of course upto you GM if you want to turn this thread in to just another tipping sheet but I for one regret your abandoning of the intriguing 10/1+ filter
Any chance you could continue this in tandem?
The longer the odds you back at the greater the fluctuation in on-going profit and loss will be due to lengthy losing runs being interspersed with sparse long-odds winners: a very spiky graph would result if you mapped your progress in such a way
My own view is that the terrific profit you showed that instigated this thread was due to no more than the inherent randomness of winners choosing in this instance to cluster, thereby leading to the false, though wholly understandable premise, that you’ve developed a method that defies statistical and probabilistic principles
However, this patently does not mean that you’ve failed to devise a method that can ‘best the book’ at 10/1+. You might well have but if so it is likely to converge ‘in the long run’ to a profit of say 10% at ‘value’ and break-even or small loss at SP, both of which would deserve a pat on the back; and anything better a cause for hearty celebration
Thanks Ginger And Drone.
Drone, I feel that converting this thread not only still shows which horses I’ve backed at 10/1+ but also those a little shorter that drift to 10/1+ best odds. There was some debate in the first place as to whether I should put up all my selections.
I take your point about randomness. Just as my record through Boxing Day may have proved unrepresentative so could be my fortunes since (in both cases at 10/1+ and overall). However, the only proof viewers have is my poor strike rate (though a small profit) since I started the thread and there had been some disbelief about the figures I originally put up which provoked me into starting it.
It hadn’t been my intention to start a thread of this type when I put up the original figures (I had no idea what they would show when I started calculating them and I hadn’t bothered to breakdown last season’s profit). I was surprised at the stir they caused.
I found it uncomfortable to separate from my overall by only putting up the 10/1+ and I wondered whether it was affecting my choice of horses psychologically or subconsciously (or was it the curse of TRF lol, the time of the season, randomness indeed?)
My method is just to study and interpret the form to seek my idea of the winner, largely regardless of price. I feel a lot happier putting up everything and treating it as a bit of fun. After a bad run the wolf is retreating down the garden path lol. If I needed to make a living from investing I would have to increase my £10 stake unit to about £70 then I’d start having trouble getting on.
Folk will have to trust my overall figures for last season and this as, of course, they are not demonstrated on here. However, showing my adventures over the rest of this season to match last season’s profit may prove something and I intend to do a thread each season to come.
+1490.13 (-305.20) (Tgt: +2221.15)
Mar 10
San
2.00 W Kastani Beach 11/2 (Vic)
2.30 W Azzerti 2/5 (365)
3.05 W Rathlin Rose 2/1 (365)
3.40 W Kayf Adventure 11/8 (Pow)
4.15 W Blandfords Gunner 11/2 (Vic)
4.50 W Mr Clarkson 1/1 (365)
Ayr
2.10 W Culmination 4/6 (Sky)
2.45 W Notnow Seamus 11/4 (Vic)
5.00 W Caraline 9/4 (Hil)Mar 10
San
2.00 W Kastani Beach 11/2 (Vic) -10
2.30 W Azzerti 2/5 (365) +4
3.05 W Rathlin Rose 2/1 (365) +20
3.40 W Kayf Adventure 11/8 (Pow) -10
4.15 W Blandfords Gunner 11/2 (Vic) -10
4.50 W Mr Clarkson 1/1 (365) -10
Ayr
2.10 W Culmination 4/6 (Sky) +6.67
2.45 W Notnow Seamus 11/4 (Vic) -10
5.00 W Caraline 9/4 (Hil) -10
-29.33 +1460.80 (-334.53) (Tgt: +2221.15)Mar 11 San
1.20 W Gregarious 6/1 (Lad)
1.50 W Man From Mars 14/1 (Boy)
1.50 W Lithic 9/1 (Boy)
2.25 W Fourth Act 15/2 (365)
3.00 W Gassin Golf 8/1 (365)
3.00 W Max Do Brazil 11/1 (365)
4.10 W Vicenzo Mio 100/30 (365)
4.45 W Twenty Eight Guns 4/1 (Cor)Mar 11 San
1.20 W Gregarious 6/1 (Lad) +60
1.50 W Man From Mars 14/1 (Boy) -10
1.50 W Lithic 9/1 (Boy) -10
2.25 W Fourth Act 15/2 (365) -10
3.00 W Gassin Golf 8/1 (365) -10
3.00 W Max Do Brazil 11/1 (365) -10
4.10 W Vicenzo Mio 100/30 (365) -10
4.45 W Twenty Eight Guns 4/1 (Cor) -10
-10.00 +1450.80 (-344.53) (Tgt: +2221.15)Mar 12
War
2.50 W Song Saa 11/4 (Vic)
3.55 W Abbeygrey 7/1 (Vic)
Mar
4.10 W Forthefunofit 2/1 (365)Mar 12
War
2.50 W Song Saa 11/4 (Vic) -10
3.55 W Abbeygrey 7/1 (Vic) -10
Mar
4.10 W Forthefunofit 2/1 (365) 5/2 +25
+5.00 +1455.80 (-339.53) (Tgt: +2221.15)Going in low on confidence in the midst of my worse sustained run since I started investing last season (only +100 since Boxing Day) so expecting a bloodbath :)
Mar 14 Chl
1.30 W River Wylde 8/1 (refund if 2nd) (Pow)
2.10 W Altior 2/7 (refund if 2nd) (Pow)
2.50 W Singlefarmpayment 9/1 (365)
2.50 E/W Un Temps Pour Tout 14/1 (1/4, 1-4) (Vic)
3.30 W Yanworth 3/1 (Sky)
4.10 W Apple’s Jade 5/1 (refund if 2nd) (Pow)
4.50 W Beware The Bear 8/1 (Boy)
5.30 W Foxtail Hill 6/1 (Pow)
5.30 E/W Captain Redbeard 22/1 (1/4, 1-4) (Pow)Going in low on confidence in the midst of my worse sustained run since I started investing last season (only +100 since Boxing Day) so expecting a bloodbath
Mar 14 Chl
1.30 W River Wylde 8/1 (refund if 2nd) (Pow) -10
2.10 W Altior 2/7 (refund if 2nd) (Pow) +2.86
2.50 W Singlefarmpayment 9/1 (365) -10
2.50 E/W Un Temps Pour Tout 14/1 (1/4, 1-4) (Vic) +175
3.30 W Yanworth 3/1 (Sky) -10
4.10 W Apple’s Jade 5/1 (refund if 2nd) (Pow) +50
4.50 W Beware The Bear 8/1 (Boy) -10
5.30 W Foxtail Hill 6/1 (Pow) -10
5.30 E/W Captain Redbeard 22/1 (1/4, 1-4) (Pow) -20
+157.86 +1613.66 (-181.67) (Tgt: +2221.15)nice one mate keep it up
had a mare today, supreme a race I will leave alone in future as don’t think I ever had the winner there
and yanworth just slowest horse I think i’ve ever seen
death duty my only remaining realistic hope of avoiding another terrible festival, and we’re not even half way
maybe it’s time for me to knock this gambling lark on the head
Thanks Judge, I needed today and would almost be happy to break even over the next three days. It doesn’t get any easier but I think you should keep going, Death Duty is well fancied. Hope you have a change of luck.
Mar 15 Chl (the other 2 races are Mickey Mouse lol)
1.30 W Neon Wolf 15/8 (refund if 2nd) (Pow)
2.10 W Might Bite 7/2 (refund if 2nd) (Pow)
2.50 E/W Kalondra 18/1 (1/5, 1-6) (refund if 2nd) (Pow)
2.50 E/W Modus 16/1 (1/5, 1-6) (refund if 2nd) (Pow)
3.30 W Douvan 1/4 (refund if F/U/B) (Cor)
4.50 E/W Dakota Moirette 20/1 (1/4, 1-4) (365)Mar 15 Chl (the other 2 races are Mickey Mouse lol)
1.30 W Neon Wolf 15/8 (refund if 2nd) (Pow) 0
2.10 W Might Bite 7/2 (refund if 2nd) (Pow) +35
2.50 E/W Kalondra 18/1 (1/5, 1-6) (refund if 2nd) (Pow) -20
2.50 E/W Modus 16/1 (1/5, 1-6) (refund if 2nd) (Pow) +22
3.30 W Douvan 1/4 (refund if F/U/B) (Cor) -10
4.50 E/W Dakota Moirette 20/1 (1/4, 1-4) (365) -20
+7.00 +1620.66 (-174.67) (Tgt: +2221.15)Mar 16 Chl
1.30 W Top Notch 100/30 (refund if not win) (Sky)
2.10 W Jury Duty 8/1 (365)
2.10 E/W Electric Concorde 22/1 (1/4, 1-5) (365)
2.50 W Uxizandre 4/1 (refund if F/U/B) (Cor)
3.30 W Unowhatimeanharry 11/8 (refund if F/U/B) (Cor)
4.10 W Thomas Crapper 9/1 (refund if 2nd) (Pow)
4.50 W Let’s Dance 13/8 (Sky)
5.30 E/W Another Hero 14/1 (1/4, 1-5) (365)Mar 16 Chl
1.30 W Top Notch 100/30 (refund if not win) (Sky) 0
2.10 W Jury Duty 8/1 (365) -10
2.10 E/W Electric Concorde 22/1 (1/4, 1-5) (365) -20
2.50 W Uxizandre 4/1 (refund if F/U/B) (Cor) -10
3.30 W Unowhatimeanharry 11/8 (refund if F/U/B) (Cor) -10
4.10 W Thomas Crapper 9/1 (refund if 2nd) (Pow) -10
4.50 W Let’s Dance 13/8 (Sky) +16.25
5.30 E/W Another Hero 14/1 (1/4, 1-5) (365) -20
-63.75 +1556.91 (-238.42) (Tgt: +2221.15)
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.