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King George VI Chase
61 points @ 5/1 (PP) Cue Card* (min 4/1)Serious question GT, how do you get to 61 points ? why not just 60
My stakes are based on two things Straw Bear. The chance I believe the horse has of winning, and the amount of value I believe there is in the bet. My idea of the horse’s chance compared to the odds available.
My idea of Cue Card’s chance is 23%.
To be fair odds a 5/1 chance needs to have a better than 16.7%.This is the calculation:
Difference between my 23% and odds 16.7% = 6.3 (23 – 16.7)
6.3 x 6 = 37.8 (giving the amount of “value”)
37.8 + (my idea of the horse’s chance) 23 = 60.8
Rounded up to 61I am used to doing the calculation in this way for all prices. Followers can themselves round it down to 60 if they want to, after all – if betting to £1 per point then it is only a difference in profit of £5. But if the odds were bigger and stakes of a follower were £5 per point it could make a difference.
Value Is EverythingI’d like to back Don Cossack too, but will leave it for now. Suspect his participation relies on both he and Don Poli remaining sound. Without Don Poli making it to the Lexus DC could go there.
I’d imagine these are the plans for the Gigginstown horses: Don Cossack goes for the King George and Road To Riches goes for the Lexus. I’d be very surprised if they don’t go this way. Don Poli will go to the Lexus with plenty to work on and take in the Hennessy on route to Cheltenham. Even if Don Poli happens to miss the Lexus, they have Road To Riches with a massive chance there.
Not sure where Sir Des Champs fits in but I doubt they had planned beyond Clonmel last week, great to see him back and retaining plenty of ability.
Race Of The Day
3:30 Exeter
49 points @ 7/2 (VC) St Dominick* (min 100/30)
saver:
49 points @ 7/2 (sportingbet) Trraco* (min 100/30)Value Is EverythingI’d like to back Don Cossack too, but will leave it for now. Suspect his participation relies on both he and Don Poli remaining sound. Without Don Poli making it to the Lexus DC could go there.
I’d imagine these are the plans for the Gigginstown horses: Don Cossack goes for the King George and Road To Riches goes for the Lexus. I’d be very surprised if they don’t go this way. Don Poli will go to the Lexus with plenty to work on and take in the Hennessy on route to Cheltenham. Even if Don Poli happens to miss the Lexus, they have Road To Riches with a massive chance there.
Not sure where Sir Des Champs fits in but I doubt they had planned beyond Clonmel last week, great to see him back and retaining plenty of ability.
You make an excellent point THM, and with Don Cossack 9/1 on the exchanges for Lexus and no bigger than bookmakers for King George… looks worth a bet. Cheers.
Value Is EverythingKing George VI Chase
61 points @ 5/1 (PP) Cue Card* (min 4/1)39 points @ 4/1 (L) Don Cossack* (min 7/2)
Value Is EverythingRace Of The Day
2:20 Ludlow
27 points each way @ 6/1 (B365) Noche De Reyes* (min 11/2)Value Is EverythingRace Of The Day
2:20 Ludlow
27 points each way @ 6/1 (B365) Noche De Reyes* (min 11/2)5 points @ 16/1 (SJ) Jayo Time (min 12/1)
Value Is EverythingI’ll be having bets in the 3:00 Lingfield in the morning.
Unfortunately, no bookie is allowing me to put much on tonight.Value Is Everything3:00 Lingfield:
64 points @ 100/30 (SJ) Fourofakind* (min 11/4)
36 points @ 13/2 (B365) Chase The Spud* (min 6/1)Value Is EverythingAfter coming agonisingly close yesterday, no bet today – getting ready for Newbury.
Value Is Everything3:15 Newbury
30 points @ 14/1 (PP) Kapstadt* (min 11/1)
47 points @ 5/1 (PP) Sternrubin* (min 9/2)Value Is Everything3:15 Newbury
30 points @ 14/1 (PP) Kapstadt* (min 11/1)
47 points @ 5/1 (PP) Sternrubin* (min 9/2)saver:
13 points @ 13/2 (B365) John Constble (min 13/2)Value Is Everything1:00 Newbury
26 points @ 8/1 (Sky) Russe Blanc* (min 15/2)55 points @ 5/2 (B365) Wuff* (min 9/4)
15 points @ 11/2 (B365) Baby Shine (min 11/2)Value Is Everything
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