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Sorry it’s a bit late:
Race Of The Day
2:30 Kempton
62 points @ 5/2 (B365) Brother Ted* (min 9/4)saver:
18 points @ 7/2 (Sky) Kaysersburg (min 7/2)Value Is EverythingRace Of The Day
2:20 Exeter
60 points @ 3/1 (SJ) Sire De Grugy* (min 11/4)Value Is EverythingRace Of The Day
2:20 Exeter
60 points @ 3/1 (SJ) Sire De Grugy* (min 11/4)savers:
21 points @ 7/2 (B365) Gods Own (min 7/2)
12 points @ 7/1 (B365) Dunraven Storm (min 7/1)Value Is EverythingIs anyone here on the “betfect” site ive been using it to just copy other peoples betslips, takes the work out of it, just thought it would be useful if anyone wanted to copy myn as well
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Race Of The Day
2:20 Exeter
60 points @ 3/1 (SJ) Sire De Grugy* (min 11/4)savers:
21 points @ 7/2 (B365) Gods Own (min 7/2)
12 points @ 7/1 (B365) Dunraven Storm (min 7/1)Vibes don’t look great. If not yet on – suggest not betting unless there’s a positive market move for SDG.
Value Is EverythingDisappointed with Sire De Grugy today, but some people are saying he should be retired, that’s well over the top imo.
SDG usually jumps well, but even at his best SDG had a habit of reaching for one or two, especially open ditches (take a look at the 2014 Celebration or Sodexo). After his brilliant 2013/14 campaign a hip injury and lameness kept him off course until reappearing in the Game Spirit in February. Jumping lacked quality even before falling three out at the ditch – taking off too early – just as he did at the ditch today. Game Spirit was followed by a much better performance just 11 days later. Some have chosen to rubbish this performance – off a mark (172) 5 lbs higher than today’s 167…
At Chepstow Grey Gold was 7 lengths second off a mark of 152 (recieving 20 lbs). It’s true he was well beaten in just two races since, but his best form has been on very soft ground. Made a bad mistake and pulled up on second occasion anyway and not seen since April. It is, however – now – fair to estimate Grey Gold did not run to his 152 mark. SDG is no 179 racehorse. But what of the third placed horse…
…Further 2 lengths away saw Mister Grez; a stone out of the handicap. Won three of his four races since (victories coming over hurdles in lesser events but is now rated 132 over hurdles and 132 fences. Given a beating of 9 lengths by SDG in reciept of 26 lbs (33 lbs including 7 lbs claim). So Sire De Grugy gave a 35 lbs (26 lbs + 9 lengths = 35) to a horse rated 132. So 132 + 35 = SDG running to 167. Add a pound or two for ease of victory and you’d get at worst a rating only a few pounds off Sire De Grugy’s very best.
Of course it is not ideal to judge a performance by one horse alone and gives a question mark over the form; but the time (considering heavy ground) also suggests it was a top class performance. Over 21 seconds faster than other 2m races on the card. Even if not wanting to put a rating figure on the Chepstow run, surely fair to say seemed back to somewhere near his best?
After carrying plenty of weight on heavy ground – it was not that surprising race came too soon at Cheltenham 18 days later.
Only got as far as the sixth at Aintree, so ability can’t be judged at all on that run – other than his jumping is not as accurate these days.
Before the Haldon Gold Cup Jonathon Neesom said on RUK SDG looked as though he’d come on for the run. May be bad mistake at the open ditch today affected him either physically or confidence-wise too. But finishing position does not do him justice anyway. Rightly not knocked about once chance had gone and heavily eased run-in. Could well come on for reappearance -as he did last year. Unless there’s something wrong physically there’s no reason to retire Sire De Grugy. Don’t write him off.
Value Is EverythingRace Of The Day
3:20 Chepstow:
67 points @ 2.05/1 (betfair) Sykes* (min 15/8)(£113 available)
15 points @ 9/2 (C) Theeaglehaslanded (min 4/1)Value Is EverythingRace Of The Day
3:20 Chepstow:
67 points @ 2.05/1 (betfair) Sykes* (min 15/8)(£113 available)
15 points @ 9/2 (C) Theeaglehaslanded (min 4/1)12 points @ 15.5/1 (betfair) Tea Time Fred* (min 13/1)(£13 available)
further bet on the saver:
3 points @ 4/1 (B365) The Eaglehaslanded (min 4/1)Value Is EverythingPrincess Tara is the Bowen ‘top horse to follow’ in my horses to follow book,so I’ve backed that in the 3.20. It did mention class 4 races though, and there doesn’t seem to be any money being put on [that’s going on Tea Time Fred by the look of it!].postscript; well, if that’s the best horse in the stable I think they’ve got a problem…however might need watching when she’s back to 4 races against the girls!]
Princess Tara is the Bowen ‘top horse to follow’ in my horses to follow book,so I’ve backed that in the 3.20. It did mention class 4 races though, and there doesn’t seem to be any money being put on [that’s going on Tea Time Fred by the look of it!].postscript; well, if that’s the best horse in the stable I think they’ve got a problem…however might need watching when she’s back to 4 races against the girls!]
Princess Tara ran well in a race that will probably work out well Moehat. Sykes in particular could well follow up, came from further back than other principles in a slowly run race and may not go up much. I’d have thought Peter Bowen had better prospects than Princess Tara; but she jumped much better today and – as you say – has the option of mares races. Can see the mare paying her way.
When considering Princess Tara today, Peter Bowen is a trainer I like when in form – usually in late Spring, Summer and early Autumn. However, noticed over the years Bowen often starts a barren run at around this time of year. In 2014 no winners in 6 weeks from mid October through all November. In 2013 3 winners from 39 runners (7.7% SR which is down on Bowen’s average). And as far as I could see, in 2012 went from Nov 5th right through to March 28th with only one winner! This season Bowen had a winner on the 11th October with Danimix, but since then and before today his 5 runners (including Danimix and 3 of 5 at single figure odds) have produced no winner or placed horses. Admittedly a small sample but did set alarm bells ringing considering what’s happened other years. Even if am reading too much in to the statistics, unlike trainers of the first two today (Hobbs and Nicholls) Peter Bowen can not be described as being “in good form”.
Don’t give up on Princess Tara when trainer facts are in her favour Moehat.
Value Is EverythingThanks Ginge; I’m having great fun with my £10 Corals account albeit being £2 down at the moment! just printed off the ‘trainers in form’ section from TSL and de Bromhead is still bailing me out.
Race Of The Day
2:05 Musselburgh:
80 points @ 2/1 (betfair) Cobajayisland* (min 7/4)(£7 available @ 2.05/1, £88 available @ 2/1)Value Is EverythingRace Of The Day
2:05 Musselburgh:
80 points @ 2/1 (betfair) Cobajayisland* (min 7/4)(£7 available @ 2.05/1, £88 available @ 2/1)saver:
14 points @ 6/1 (L) Red Admirable (min 6/1)Value Is EverythingRace Of The Day
3:30 Musselburgh:
40 points @ 6/1 (PP) Mwaleshi* (min 11/2)40 points @ 6/1 (Sky) Kodicil* (min 11/2)
Value Is Everything
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