- This topic has 1,552 replies, 37 voices, and was last updated 8 years, 3 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Champion Sprint
33 points @ 10/1 (B365) Strath Burn* (min 15/2)I’ll have other bets in this race in the morning.
Value Is EverythingChampion Filly & Mares
35 points @ 13/2 (B365) Sea Calisi* (min 6/1)
17 points @ 26/1 (betfair) Speedy Boarding* (min 18/1)(£27 available)
savers:
17 points @ 5/1 (B365) Candarliya (min 5/1)
17 points @ 5/1 (PP) Covert Love (min 5/1)
14 points @ 13/2 (B365) Simple Verse (min 13/2)Value Is EverythingChampions Long Distance Cup
37 points @ 6/1 (VC) Agent Murphy* (min 11/2)
25 points @ 7/1 (PP) Flying Officer* (min 7/1)
saver:
8 points @ 8/1 (WH) Pallasator (min 8/1)Bit worried about form of both Meehan and to a certain extent Gosden yards, but there doesn’t seem to be much pace in the race which could favour speed and/or prominance.
Value Is EverythingChampion Sprint
33 points @ 10/1 (B365) Strath Burn* (min 15/2)31 points @ 11/2 (B365) Twighlight Son*
savers:
25 points @ 3/1 (B365) Muhaarar
10 points @ 9/1 (888) The Tin ManValue Is EverythingChampion Stakes
27 points @ 14/1 (L) The Corsican* (min 11/1)16 points each way @ 11/1 (B365) The Corsican
Overall The Champion doesn’t look as good this year as previous Ascot incarnations. Jack Hobbs deserves to be favourite and is the one to beat. I backed him ante-post for the Arc and am convinced there’s even more to come. However, am not sure whether it’ll be at this trip and with Gosden not in the marvellous form he was even a week ago I’ve got to take him on at current 6/4.
Forgetting Found‘s Arc run when getting no sort of run from rear and given an easy time, put up probably a career best behind Golden Horn in the Irish Champion. Goes on the ground and stable in form, possibly should be closer to Jack Hobbs and expect a late move. Very difficult to see her out of the frame and wouldn’t put anyone off taking the 9/2.
Vadamos is an improver, but needs to progress quite a bit further from the German form. Backed earlier in the week probably due to the Master trainer Fabre’s encouraging words. Expect Vadamos to drift.
One I believe is massively overpriced is The Corsican. Stable think he’s better on a sound surface, but that’s not born out be an impressive win in the Newbury “Arc” trial. Idling in front to beat Sky Hunter 1 1/2 lengths. Before that an unlucky horse, should’ve won the Glorious Stakes with ease but Crowley managed to get in to a pocket (it still hurts). Some will say he doesn’t have Group 1 form; but came from rear in Ascot’s Prince Of Wales, having no run through and should’ve been placed. I rate him as finishing around 2 lengths 3rd to Free Eagle with more improvement to come. Finished fastest of all and did really well considering the pace. This will be in Jack Hobbs best interests to follow his pacemaker and make it a good gallop which should suit The Corsican.
Other horse I might be interested in is Racing History. He’s come under the radar, but is bred to win this, brother to Farhh. Racing History himself won the Group 3 Winter Hill Stakes at Windsor by a length from Cannock Chase. Obviously needs another big step up, but that’s how his upward curve is going.
Been money for Fascinating Rock; back to something like his best when 6 lengths winner of Group 3 Enterprise Stakes from Panama Hat last time. Although many others in this race would’ve won just as easily. On form of splitting Al Kazeem and Postponed in Tattesalls Gold Cup has a good chance of at least a place. Market move is encouraging but hasn’t been as consistent as many from this yard in Group 1’s.
I’d be a little surprised if any of the rest are good enough to place. Ribbons was back to form in Blandford last time, but shouldn’t be good enough. Would probably have gone for the F&M had it been a 10f race. Lightning Spear was going the right way but disappointed last time. This trip needs to bring about more improvement. Owner companion Sumbal looks exposed just below top class. German horse Palace Prince doesn’t look good enough and neither does Air Pilot. Tullius is so inconsistent these days and just below top class even at best and Maverick Wave looks a pacemaker.Value Is EverythingChampions Long Distance Cup
37 points @ 6/1 (VC) Agent Murphy* (min 11/2)
25 points @ 7/1 (PP) Flying Officer* (min 7/1)
saver:
8 points @ 8/1 (WH) Pallasator (min 8/1)Bit worried about form of both Meehan and to a certain extent Gosden yards, but there doesn’t seem to be much pace in the race which could favour speed and/or prominance.
Nice start with Flying Officer.
Race worked out pretty much how I thought. Pace played in to the hands of Flying Officer and against Clever Cookie who (as usual) held up, came from too far back. Agent Murphy -as Steve Mellish said afterwards – would’ve won had he sown his form. Stable well out of form. Thanks to Frankie for a great ride, nicking up the inner before the turn and going for home as the rest were getting in each others way.
Love to see a good or soft ground Gold Cup for Clever Cookie.
Value Is EverythingChampion Sprint
33 points @ 10/1 (B365) Strath Burn* (min 15/2)31 points @ 11/2 (B365) Twighlight Son*
savers:
25 points @ 3/1 (B365) Muhaarar
10 points @ 9/1 (888) The Tin ManJust hope luck in running doesn’t come in to it. Course looks very narrow. Is it safe?
Value Is EverythingGreat watching a true Champion winning the Championship race. Muhaarar putting up one of the best sprinting performances in recent times. Best form horse Muhaarar clear of the second best form horse Twighlight Son who was clear of the rest. It looked a four horse race for the win and three of those were in the first four. Potential improver The Tin Man didn’t quite progress as much as hoped – fourth. The exposed as just short of top class – third – Danzeno split them.
Value Is EverythingChampion Filly & Mares
35 points @ 13/2 (B365) Sea Calisi* (min 6/1)
17 points @ 26/1 (betfair) Speedy Boarding* (min 18/1)(£27 available)
savers:
17 points @ 5/1 (B365) Candarliya (min 5/1)
17 points @ 5/1 (PP) Covert Love (min 5/1)
14 points @ 13/2 (B365) Simple Verse (min 13/2)My bets here depended very much on the expected pace. If I thought Arabian Queen could get an easy lead (not pulling too much) and slowing it down I’d back her. I saw Journey win at Salisbury and she seems to like an uncontested view of the front. Those two may ruin each other’s chance. Not ideal for Covert Love either, but she appears to be more controlable. That said, would’ve made her a main bet but for the likely contested pace. Stable still in cracking form too.
I would’ve been against Simple Verse back at this reduced trip if I didn’t think it would be a strong stamina sapping contest. Candarliya is the other saver, ran really well against Treve. So too did Sea Calisi and at the prices latter deserves to be a main bet. She was also a bit unlucky against
Value Is EverythingEmma Spencer was not the only one the F&M start came as a surprise, didn’t have chance to finish my write up. But as expected there was a fast pace with Arabian Queen going off hell for leather. Never in any doubt Simple Verse would out-stay Journey up the straight.
Wonderful for connections to win a Group 1 without needing to go to an appeal.
Value Is EverythingThree winners from three for me so far today, one main bet and two savers. Gone for outsiders in the other two, so anything else is a bonus.
Value Is EverythingKodi Bear too free and was disappointed Mosse didn’t go straight for the rail – knowing he usually hangs. That said, at some point (probably around three out) they went too fast; so prominent runners were disadvantaged. Integral ran about as well as could be expected after racing mid-div. Rank outsiders in the last two two out finished second and third. It wasn’t “Championship form” exactly, but Solow better than distances / form appears – for racing nearer the lead (fast pace) than most. Belardo and Gabriel grossly flattered.
Value Is EverythingJack Hobbs pricked his ears when getting to the front and didn’t really stay on as well as expected. May be they went too quick early? May be he’s better over further? Simon Rowlands sectional analysis will be interesting. May be it’s the end of a long season (won first race last Christmas too so been on the go longer than most). The Corsican doesn’t seem suited by being ridden near the pace. Travelled better than anything, but like last time (where didn’t matter) soon as he saw the front found dissapointingly little. Found got the truly run race she needs and got the gaps this time. Ran well enough but whether she was bang on is debatable; Air Pilot and Tullius seem to keep the form down. Fascinating Rock’s form looked inconsistent beforehand, but in hindsight – listening to the trainer afterwards – is possible he’s a Spring and Autumn horse and probably improved a little on the Tatteralls Gold Cup form.
Value Is Everythingi remember when FR got beat at windsor,they said he is a big stuffy horse and probably needed the run(that was after him winning next time up)
i remember when FR got beat at windsor,they said he is a big stuffy horse and probably needed the run(that was after him winning next time up)
Yes, I can believe that NW, FR’s form looks better with some give underfoot. No race for over three months between late May and late August – very probable needed Windsor.
Value Is EverythingMy take of the Gleneagles saga is:
Considering he was kept in the Derby until the latest possible moment despite the trainer’s insistance he’s a miler… Why then was he taken out of the Sussex so early? Too early, as it was truly (judged by times) no worse than Good. For Goodwood I don’t entirely buy the Going line. Had a set back? Having looked again seems just as likely they knew the title of “Champion Miler” will be determined by a meeting with Solow. Gleneagles was supposedly “the best miler we (Aidan) have ever had”; their “best ever miler” had to be “Champion Miler”; didn’t he? “The Boys” wanted that meeting with the French horse to be on going advantageous to Gleneagles. Not only would firm going be better for Gleneagles, but also possibly against Solow (form of the Queen Anne looks a bit better now than it did then). At the end of July it seemed 50-50 who was going to be “Champion Miler”. By yesterday, Team Coolmore knew Gleneagles would not be Champion Miler if they did not beat Solow; so had less to lose than at Goodwood where the title was up in the air.
I can not blame connections for missing the International and Irish Champion, not only was the going not in Gleneagles favour, but also places a greater emphasis on stamina for the very doubtful stayer. However, at any distance it is possible they wanted to avoid not only “good-soft”, but also “good” ground too…
…Gleneagles best form is on a firm surface. Yes he won the Irish Guineas on softer, but only beating Ivawood 1 1/4 lengths in workmanlike fashion. Beat Ivawood impressively at Newmarket by 3 lengths, value for more. The horse’s strength is an excellent turn of foot which is at its best when speed is at a premium – on a firm surface. “Listen, he shows so much speed” is (for once) true. Also has a daisy-cutting top-of-the-ground action – again, at its best on a firm surface. This all makes Gleneagles unlikely to be at his very best on “good” ground, let alone good-soft… Not surprising then, connections want to run the horse on a firm surface.
At his best, Gleneagles is a very good Guineas winner, imo not an outstanding one. There’s been a lot of hype from the Coolmore team and no shows are unfortunate, putting people’s backs up. Some people believe his performance yesterday proves Gleneagles previous form to be inferior. It is exactly this way of thinking that encourages trainers not to run unless they get ideal conditions. Make no mistake, Gleneagles is a bloody good horse, just one with a going flaw and probably of inferior ability to Solow. However, I can think of only one Galileo horse faster, and his name was Frankel. This fact explains the earlier Coolmore hype (wanting to talk him up for breeding purposes) and over-protectiveness.
Value Is Everything
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.