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2:30 Doncaster
38 points @ 6/1 (L) Storm Rising* (min 11/2)
62 points @ 9/4 (B365) Elronaq* (min 2/1)Value Is Everything2:30 Doncaster
38 points @ 6/1 (L) Storm Rising* (min 11/2)
62 points @ 9/4 (B365) Elronaq* (min 2/1)Are you not concerned about the drop back in trip for Storm Rising? I thought he was doing his best work in the final furlong having looked momentarily outpaced. That was over 7 furlongs on in all likelihood a much softer surface.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Gingertipster wrote:</div>
2:30 Doncaster
38 points @ 6/1 (L) Storm Rising* (min 11/2)
62 points @ 9/4 (B365) Elronaq* (min 2/1)Are you not concerned about the drop back in trip for Storm Rising? I thought he was doing his best work in the final furlong having looked momentarily outpaced. That was over 7 furlongs on in all likelihood a much softer surface.
Storm Rising now a non-runner, but to answer your question Stilvi:
6f might be too short, slight concern. But I was at Newbury and Storm Rising really impressed me as potentially one of Hannon’s best two year olds. Thought the “outpaced” was more to do with being green first time out. Showed speed once understanding what was required. At the price, thought it worth taking a chance.Value Is Everything3:00 Doncaster
50 points @ 3.4/1 (betfair) Cotai Glory* (min 100/30)(£614 available)30 points @ 7/1 (PP) Monsieur Joe* (min 13/2)
saver:
16 points @ 5/1 (B365) Desert Law (min 5/1)Value Is EverythingWith Storm Rising a non-runner and 5% comm on winner – profit on the day of +53.5 points.
Value Is Everything3:05 Doncaster
41 points @ 9/2 (PP) Koora* (min 4/1)11 points @ 50/1 (sportsbook) Mill Springs* (min 40/1)
Value Is Everything<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Gingertipster wrote:</div>
3:05 Doncaster
41 points @ 9/2 (PP) Koora* (min 4/1)11 points @ 50/1 (sportsbook) Mill Springs* (min 40/1)
27 points @ 11/1 (VC) Asyad* (min 9/1)
Value Is Everything<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Gingertipster wrote:</div>
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Gingertipster wrote:</div>
3:05 Doncaster
41 points @ 9/2 (PP) Koora* (min 4/1)11 points @ 50/1 (sportsbook) Mill Springs* (min 40/1)
27 points @ 11/1 (VC) Asyad* (min 9/1)
16 points @ 5/1 (PP) Gretchen (min 9/2)
Value Is Everything<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Gingertipster wrote:</div>
3:05 Doncaster
41 points @ 9/2 (PP) Koora* (min 4/1)11 points @ 50/1 (sportsbook) Mill Springs* (min 40/1)
Interested on your working here. I backed Koora last time and thought she had been produced with a winning run only to finish rather tamely. Must admit (although the dam won over 12f) I thought a strongly run race over shorter might be the way forward? Struggling to see any positives for Mill Springs unless the extra distance produces a massive improvement and plenty of the others suddenly regress.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Gingertipster wrote:</div>
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Gingertipster wrote:</div>
3:05 Doncaster
41 points @ 9/2 (PP) Koora* (min 4/1)11 points @ 50/1 (sportsbook) Mill Springs* (min 40/1)
Interested on your working here. I backed Koora last time and thought she had been produced with a winning run only to finish rather tamely. Must admit (although the dam won over 12f) I thought a strongly run race over shorter might be the way forward? Struggling to see any positives for Mill Springs unless the extra distance produces a massive improvement and plenty of the others suddenly regress.
Although by Pivotal, Koora is a half sister to St Leger winner Milan; albeit that one’s by more of a stamina influence Saddlers Wells. Remember the dam Kithanga quite well, backed her to win St Simon. You’re right she did win up to 12f, but her two best performances were arguably over this trip. One when 1/2 length runner-up in this very race, the other third in Vintage Crop’s 1994 Irish St Leger. With Pivotal as sire you can never be sure, but I believe Koora may well improve further for step up in trip… But more than that, this is only her fourth start; only been racing since late June. Cumani has also won 4 of 8 runners, one of the four not to win a 20/1 half length second. Although true winner Martlet found more than Koora, she stayed on better than the other 14 runners in an above average listed race (Sir Henry Cecil Galtres) going further clear of the pack. There is a slight doubt might be at her very best with more give, but with other things in her favour – at the price – will give her the benefit.
Hidden Gold has obvious claims, really good placed efforts at Goodwood and York. Just feel she needs to improve to win an average Park Hill and has had plenty of racing. Others could improve past her.
Mill Springs is progressive – admittedly so far at a lower level – but with such fillies they can sometimes make big strides. Trainer John Gosden (more than any other trainer) seems to know what he’s got and rarely overtries them. Mill Springs is also bred to make a better filly, by Shirrocco out of Mezzogiorno (by Unfuwain). Sire and dam’s sire heavy stamina influences. Dam rated significantly higher than Mill Springs as was half sister (by less of a stamina influence Indian Ridge) Monturani; 4th to Soviet Song and Attraction in Falmouth and Group 2 Blandford 10f winner. All good reasons to believe more is to come, particularly at this increased trip. Stable in really good form. Like Arabian Queen, is usually a prominent runner and probably be another tail wind tomorrow favouring prominent runners. Still probably won’t be good enough; something needs to improve to be up to the average Park Hill standard. Have her as a fair 28/1 chance so imo 50/1 is worth taking.
Also like Asyad @ 11/1. Another usually (over shorter) ridden fairly near the front, with stable in form and could improve at first attempt at staying trip. By New Approach and dam Elle Danzig easy winner of Group 1 Premio Roma. Half sister won over this type of trip and Asyad ran at Newmarket as though this distance is going to suit. Hamperered there and could have finished closer to winner Gretchen with a clear run. Saved on latter, another lightly raced Gosden filly with similar attributes to Koora, toss up between the two which was going to be the saver.
Fingers crossed Stilvi.
Value Is Everything2:30 Doncaster
56 points @ 5.8/1 (betfair) Mistrusting* (min 5/1)(£170 available)
Probably get at least 6/1 if waiting until the morningValue Is Everything2:30 Doncaster
56 points @ 5.8/1 (betfair) Mistrusting* (min 5/1)(£170 available)20 points @ 14/1 (PP) Dusky Queen* (min 12/1)
saver:
20 points @ 4/1 (betfair) Fadhayyil (min 7/2)Value Is Everything<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stilvi wrote:</div>
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Gingertipster wrote:</div>
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Gingertipster wrote:</div>
3:05 Doncaster
41 points @ 9/2 (PP) Koora* (min 4/1)11 points @ 50/1 (sportsbook) Mill Springs* (min 40/1)
Interested on your working here. I backed Koora last time and thought she had been produced with a winning run only to finish rather tamely. Must admit (although the dam won over 12f) I thought a strongly run race over shorter might be the way forward? Struggling to see any positives for Mill Springs unless the extra distance produces a massive improvement and plenty of the others suddenly regress.
Although by Pivotal, Koora is a half sister to St Leger winner Milan; albeit that one’s by more of a stamina influence Saddlers Wells. Remember the dam Kithanga quite well, backed her to win St Simon. You’re right she did win up to 12f, but her two best performances were arguably over this trip. One when 1/2 length runner-up in this very race, the other third in Vintage Crop’s 1994 Irish St Leger. With Pivotal as sire you can never be sure, but I believe Koora may well improve further for step up in trip… But more than that, this is only her fourth start; only been racing since late June. Cumani has also won 4 of 8 runners, one of the four not to win a 20/1 half length second. Although true winner Martlet found more than Koora, she stayed on better than the other 14 runners in an above average listed race (Sir Henry Cecil Galtres) going further clear of the pack. There is a slight doubt might be at her very best with more give, but with other things in her favour – at the price – will give her the benefit.
Hidden Gold has obvious claims, really good placed efforts at Goodwood and York. Just feel she needs to improve to win an average Park Hill and has had plenty of racing. Others could improve past her.
Mill Springs is progressive – admittedly so far at a lower level – but with such fillies they can sometimes make big strides. Trainer John Gosden (more than any other trainer) seems to know what he’s got and rarely overtries them. Mill Springs is also bred to make a better filly, by Shirrocco out of Mezzogiorno (by Unfuwain). Sire and dam’s sire heavy stamina influences. Dam rated significantly higher than Mill Springs as was half sister (by less of a stamina influence Indian Ridge) Monturani; 4th to Soviet Song and Attraction in Falmouth and Group 2 Blandford 10f winner. All good reasons to believe more is to come, particularly at this increased trip. Stable in really good form. Like Arabian Queen, is usually a prominent runner and probably be another tail wind tomorrow favouring prominent runners. Still probably won’t be good enough; something needs to improve to be up to the average Park Hill standard. Have her as a fair 28/1 chance so imo 50/1 is worth taking.
Also like Asyad @ 11/1. Another usually (over shorter) ridden fairly near the front, with stable in form and could improve at first attempt at staying trip. By New Approach and dam Elle Danzig easy winner of Group 1 Premio Roma. Half sister won over this type of trip and Asyad ran at Newmarket as though this distance is going to suit. Hamperered there and could have finished closer to winner Gretchen with a clear run. Saved on latter, another lightly raced Gosden filly with similar attributes to Koora, toss up between the two which was going to be the saver.
Fingers crossed Stilvi.
I have backed Gretchen a couple of times and having raced alone she might be a bit better than the bare result last time but in a very difficult race have decided to give Toe The Line another chance. Had I not backed her last time would probably have swerved the race. Little disappointing that she didn’t quite see it out in the Ebor but even a reproduction of that effort – she might have beaten a St Leger winner – should give her a decent chance. This was about the time she improved last season and hopefully she can repeat that trend. The drying ground should help as should a decent pace.
I have backed Gretchen a couple of times and having raced alone she might be a bit better than the bare result last time but in a very difficult race have decided to give Toe The Line another chance. Had I not backed her last time would probably have swerved the race. Little disappointing that she didn’t quite see it out in the Ebor but even a reproduction of that effort – she might have beaten a St Leger winner – should give her a decent chance. This was about the time she improved last season and hopefully she can repeat that trend. The drying ground should help as should a decent pace.
Coin came down wrongly again. As said, toss of a coin between Koora and Gretchen.
Saver bet Gretchen won.
Hope you at least saved on the Gosden filly Stilvi?
Think you might be right about Koora, possibly didn’t stay/weak finisher, although being held up in that race didn’t seem ideal.
Silvestre nearly nicked it again by kicking for home early in the straight on Melodius. What a jockey!
Mill Springs ran well enough considering the price.
Asyad improved as expected, just beaten by a better filly.
Your Toe The Line ran well for you, probably found principles more progressive.Value Is Everything<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stilvi wrote:</div>
I have backed Gretchen a couple of times and having raced alone she might be a bit better than the bare result last time but in a very difficult race have decided to give Toe The Line another chance. Had I not backed her last time would probably have swerved the race. Little disappointing that she didn’t quite see it out in the Ebor but even a reproduction of that effort – she might have beaten a St Leger winner – should give her a decent chance. This was about the time she improved last season and hopefully she can repeat that trend. The drying ground should help as should a decent pace.Coin came down wrongly again. As said, toss of a coin between Koora and Gretchen.
Saver bet Gretchen won.
Hope you at least saved on the Gosden filly Stilvi?
Think you might be right about Koora, possibly didn’t stay/weak finisher, although being held up in that race didn’t seem ideal.
Silvestre nearly nicked it again by kicking for home early in the straight on Melodius. What a jockey!
Mill Springs ran well enough considering the price.
Asyad improved as expected, just beaten by a better filly.
Your Toe The Line ran well for you, probably found principles more progressive.No saver I am afraid (just thought the race was too tricky to have more than one dart) but a small winning day so not too unhappy. I think Toe The Line travelled as well as anything but probably wants a stronger gallop as she doesn’t appear to find too much off the bridle.
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