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13:50 Uttoxeter:
(3.2%) £36 @ 8/1 (B365) Santos Blue (min 15/2) 1st
(2.9%) £32 @ 9/1 (B365) Castle Rushen (min 17/2)
(6.0%) £67 @ 9/2 (Unibet) One Eye On Vegas (min 9/2) 3rd
STAKES £135
RETURNS £324+£189.00
________________________________________________________14:45 Kempton:
(9.3%) £100 @ 11/8 (B365) Outlaw Peter (min 5/4) 1st
£10 @ 6/4 (Unibet) Outlaw Peter (min 5/4) 1st
£10 @ 14 (betfair £24 available) Found on (min 12/1)
STAKES £120
RETURNS £262.50RETURNS Outlaw Peter £237.50 + £25.00 = £262.50
Not sure whether to include Best Odds Guaranteed. Winner drifted out to 13/8 probably because second fav’s traine Skelton is in such good form this day / week. With BOG would be a return of £287.50. I don’t believe Unibet did BOG on this. I don’t include betfair commission (it’s different for some than others) so think I’ll leave BOG out too and as it is @ 11/8.+142.50
____________________________________________________Midlands Grand National 15:00 Uttoxeter:
(5.5%) £61 @ 6/1 (Laddies) My Silver Lining (min 11/2) 3rd
(6.0%) £66 @ 9/2 (B365) Iron Bridge (min 9/2)
(2.3%) £14 @ 23 (betfair £14 available) Faceur Du Large (min 20/1)
£25 @ 7.6 (betfair £94 available) Autonomous Gold (min 7.4)
£15 @ 6.4 (betfair £70 available) Iron Bridge (min 9/2)
STAKES £181-£181.00
________________________________________________________Days Profit +150.50
Betting Bank
£11,300.14Thread Profit +£1,300.14
Value Is EverythingRemarkable, isn’t it Chestnut.
100% strike rate in Class 3’s.
Maybe I should change what Chezza might call my “elitist” prejudice. LOL
Although he’d also tell me not to change my way of thinking on a sample of just one.
Value Is Everything13:30 Bangor (tomorrow)
(8.6%) £84 each way @ 5/1 (B365) West To The Bridge (min 4/1)
(if backing only to win then £112)Value Is Everything15:00 Doncaster
(6.4%) £83 @ 7/2 (WH) Orazio (min 100/30)
———————————-
savers:
£36 @ 3/1 (PP) Baradar (min 3/1)Value Is Everything15:00 Doncaster
(6.4%) £83 @ 7/2 (WH) Orazio (min 100/30)
savers:
£36 @ 3/1 (PP) Baradar (min 3/1)
———————————
£28 @ 4/1 (C) Montassib (min 4/1)Value Is Everything13:20 Doncaster
(5.8%) £75 @ 4/1 (PP) Astral Beau (min 4/1)
——————————————-
(2.65%) £34 @ 9/1 (WH) Greys Monument (min 17/2)Value Is Everything14:40 Newbury:
(7.0%) £91 @ 15/8 (WH) Heltenham (min 15/8) possible 15p deduction
——————————————-
Saver:
£18 @ 6.4 (betfair £10 available) Gunsight Ridge (min 5/1)13:20 Doncaster
(5.8%) £75 @ 4/1 (PP) Astral Beau (min 4/1)
(2.65%) £34 @ 9/1 (WH) Greys Monument (min 17/2)
————————————————
half a saver:
£19 @ 4.2 (betfair £20 available) Knight (min 3/1)Value Is Everything“13:30 Bangor (tomorrow)
(8.6%) £84 each way @ 5/1 (B365) West To The Bridge (min 4/1)
(if backing only to win then £112)”.
———————————-I won’t change my original bet because it would be very very messy…
I’ll just say that after shortening significantly West To The Bridge has now returned to 5/1 and more on the machine!
However, the unease in the market is a little disconcerting, so is imo less likely to produce his best. Less likely to place. So…
If you are yet to back it (or have backed it to win) maybe have £86 @ 5/1 to win and also Pickanumber £62 @ 100/30.
If you have backed WTTB each way then maybe you could LAY him for a Place and then back Pickanumber.
Or alternatively keep the bet as it is.
Hope that makes sense.
Value Is Everything“14:40 Newbury:
(7.0%) £91 @ 15/8 (WH) Heltenham (min 15/8) possible 15p deduction
Saver:
£18 @ 6.4 (betfair £10 available) Gunsight Ridge (min 5/1)”
———————————————————–With Eaton Collina out, if having a bet now, my minimum price for Heltenham would now be 6/4.
If not having the above bets I’d right now be backing both Gunsight Ridge @ 7.4 and Solo @ 8.8. I’ll explain in the next post.Value Is EverythingMy original 100% book was (if I remember it correctly):
38% 13/8 Heltenham (HU)
19% 9/2 Gunsight Ridge (M/HU)
15% 11/2 Eaton Collina (TP/FR) ——
10% 19/1 Solo (FR/RP)
6.3% 15/1 Sir Psycho (RP/M?)
6.3% 15/1 Galahad Quest (TP)
5.3% 18/1 Gastavian (FR/HU)As a guide, when there is a non runner comes out then its percentage is split with something with originally half the chance of another runner getting half as much of the 15%. 19 being half of 38.
Which works out roughly to
Heltenham +6.75%
Gunsight Ridge +3.4%
Eaton Collina ——- Non-Runner 15% to be shared…
Solo +1.75%
Sir Psycho +1.2%
Galahad Quest +1.2%
Gastavian +1%I know it works out to 15.3% but it just needs a rough guide until…
The non-runner’s style of running had originally been taken into account. So can make a difference to the race if a non-runner. Eaton Collina could be a front runner but didn’t need to, in this field was imo most likely to track or push the pace… but that meant erging others to go faster. Without him the Front / prominent runners are more likely to get the race they prefer. Therefore the prominent runners have a bigger percentage added and hold up horses less.
Figures in brackets show how each horse has shown its best form in its last 5 starts.
FR = Front runner
RP = Races Prominently
TP = Track Pace
M = Mid div
HU = Held upSo Solo, Sir Psycho and Gastavian get a little more than the above figures… and Heltenham and to a lesser extent Gunsight Ridge.
However, Gustavian would imo have little chance if the race turns into a sprint, so is in his best interests to make it a good pace. Therefore I haven’t brought the figures down for the hold up horses that much:
Heltenham (HU) 43% between 5/4 and 11/8
Gunsight Ridge (M/HU) 21% between 7/2 and 4/1
Eaton Collina (TP/FR) ——
Solo (FR/RP) 13% 13/2
Sir Psycho (RP/M?) 8% 11/1
Galahad Quest (TP) 7.5% 12/1
Gastavian (FR/HU) 7.5% 12/1Value Is EverythingRan as the market drift suggested. Was never really put into the race. Winner won well……again as the market suggested. Someone somewhere knew!
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