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Ginger’s Winners 2024+

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Viewing 17 posts - 579 through 595 (of 597 total)
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  • #1697523
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    “Queen Anne:
    (4.25%) £50 @ 15/2 (B365) Quddwah (min 7/1)
    (6.4%) £88 @ 4/1 (Bet Victor) Inspiral (min 7/2)
    LAY £7 @ 4.1 (betfair £7 available) Inspiral (max 4.3)
    LAY another £13 @ 4 (betfair £25 available) Inspiral (max 4.3)
    ————————————————————–
    Reduced stake:
    £20 @ 16/1 (Sky) Big Rock (min 14/1)

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    #1697525
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    Just seen your post ham, thanks. The thread is going well at the moment.
    A couple of losing days would change things though. So in a way it is still early days.

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    #1697529
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    Ascot Gold Cup:
    Reduced Stake:
    £20 @ 40/1 (B365) Trueshan (min 25/1)

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    #1697574
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    Commonwealth Cup:
    (7%) £84 @ 5/1 (B365) Inisherin (min 5.2)

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    #1697577
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    St James’s Palace Stakes:
    (8.4%) £100 @ 6/4 (B365) Notable Speech (min 6/4)

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    #1697578
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    “King Charles III Stakes:
    (3.2%) £38 @ 8/1 (B365) Asfoora (min 15/2)
    (3.2%) £38 @ 14/1 (B365) Kerdos (min 12/1)”
    ——————————————-
    (2.9%) £34 @ 16/1 (Sportsbook) Believing (min 14/1)

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    #1697579
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    Prince Of Wales:
    £88 @ 11/4 (Sky) White Birch (min 3.6)

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    #1697586
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    Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee:
    (3.0%) £36 @ 10/1 (B365) Mitbaahy (min 9/1)

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    #1697591
    stilvi
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    I did think of doing one of your savers on White Birch, but in the end thought the bet was too ground related. The current price is only good if he does get his ground. If he doesn’t then I would be surprised if you can’t get at least 11/4 on the day. That said I do think it’s a two-horse race, anything else and the bookmakers will be laughing, not for the first time this season.

    #1697594
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    Depends who runs, Stilvi.
    On a sound surface Inspiral’s Breeders Cup form is right up there with our pair. But is likely to go for the Queen Anne especially if the ground favours stamina.
    Luxembourg was only 1/2 length behind AR in the Irish Champion. But will he turn up? Probably not.
    Alflaila disappointed in that race in Ireland and hasn’t been seen since due to injury… Did he get an injury in the race and a little below form there? The Wolferton is apparently an alternative for him, but if running in the POW wouldn’t have that much to find if fit.
    The French might send two or three over and they could yet improve.
    But yes – on what is likely to run – it would seem as though our pair have a few lengths in hand of the pack.

    tbh I am less keen on “savers” as ante-post bets. As by increasing the number of horses backed is increasing the chance of one getting a leg or something… And whereas more than one “main bet” is often worth taking the chance of an injury… A saver bet not running can ruin the value of the main bet. So I’d usually not bother with savers until the day of race market.

    Top prices are now 7/4 AR and 11/4 WB. that’s almost 4/7 one of the pair win.

    Yes, you can say that if it is on the firm side WB will be greater than 11/4. But if on the soft side then the opposite is true, and AR may well drift. I don’t expect the 11/4 to last much longer. In my opinion White Birch should start favourite on Good or softer.

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    #1697600
    stilvi
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    Doesn’t seem to be any obvious drift on Auguste Rodin. I think it would have to be on the soft side for White Birch to start favourite. It was last time out, but he only has that one piece of form which makes him a likely/possible winner of this. If it was 1m4f I would be much more confident of Auguste Rodin. Tactics could be interesting. Will Coolmore make it a very strong pace with Auguste Rodin sitting just off, or will this time Moore try and sit in behind White Birch?

    #1697602
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    Coronation Stakes:
    (6.4%) £76 @ 4/1 (Coral Fallen Angel (min 4.8)

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    #1697622
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    “Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee:
    (3.0%) £36 @ 10/1 (B365) Mitbaahy (min 9/1)”
    ——————————————–
    (3.0%) £36 @ 10/1 (PP) Shartash (min 9/1)

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    #1697628
    stilvi
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    What are your thoughts on Shartash?

    I’m struggling to see why it’s so popular in the market. Hasn’t won over 6f for two years, and never beaten a field of more than 6 runners.

    #1697631
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    White Birch is favourite now on betfair @ 3.35, with those queuing @ 3.55.
    While Auguste Rodin is now 3.45, with queuing 4.0.

    The Tatts Gold Cup was officially Good-Yielding and the time actually beat Racing Post standard by a second (0.99). He was the only horse to break standard at the meeting. So you might not believe White Birch is so effective on Good, but if not then the performance he put up must be even better.

    It is possible White Birch won’t be as good on “Good” than he is on Good-Yielding. But the same could be said the other way with Auguste Rodin. His best three performances were on what I would call the firm side of good. Derby, Breeders Cup Turf and Irish Champion. The latter was officially “Good”, but he beat Racing Post Standard by 2.72… However, in contrast to White Birch, only 1 of the 8 races on the card did not beat RP Standard… Which suggests the ground was proper good-firm – ie not Good.

    In the last 13 months he’s run 8 times, run to form in 3, been a bit below his best in 2 (last time out and in the Irish Derby) and been awful in the other 3. The “other 3” being the 3 with give in the ground.

    …But if it was not the ground, there is also a possibility of Auguste Rodin not being as effective at Ascot after bombing out in the King George.

    True, WB does only have the one piece of form that’s real top top class… But the time tells us it was definitely real top top class. Either a horse is or it is not real top top class and he is. AR’s 3 real top top class performances are all of the same level and his 3 awful performances means he doesn’t even increase his chance by consistency. So – in this case – 3 against 1 imo means nothing.

    There is always a possibility of Coolmore tactics giving them an advantage. But the problem they have with this race is Auguste Rodin probably needs a strongly run race (like they made sure of getting in the Irish Champion). Indeed, there is also a question mark about whether AR will be as effective at the trip now he’s older. So I can’t really see them doing anything else but make it a good pace. That said, I do believe they’ll go back to the tracking pace of the Irish Champion rather than the normal 12f tactics of holding him up.

    Anyway, that’s how I see it anyway, Stilvi. :rose:

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    #1697638
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    Shartash (and Mitbaahy)’s form isn’t as strong as a few, Stilvi. But none of the runners yet has form good enough to win an average (median) renewal… But imo what those two do have is the possibility or even the probability of improving their form into a median average winner… And their ability to handle ground on the soft side of Good another plus.

    With Shartash: When going down in trip I always look at how a horse travels through his races at the longer distance. Watching his Listed 7f victory last time out, he had no trouble going the pace in a truly run race. ie Could’ve gone faster (eg if it were 6f) if necessary. He then quickens past Pogo around 2 1/2 furlongs out, fairly easily going in front before either weakening or not staying on as well as Pogo. Only just hanging on.

    So – for me – it was the type of performance that actually suggests he could well be better back at 6f.

    Last year his best performance was probably the Newbury or Naas 6f races, 4th beaten just 1/2 length at the former, and despite being 5th was only beaten 1 1/4 in the latter… Both Group 3’s. And without a Group 2 penalty may well have won the Lacken. Which was also the most runners he’s faced. So on the basis of running one of his very best races in the biggest field he’s encountered – should be ok with a bigger field. Two year old Group 2’s often don’t need as good form to win as older Group 3’s. And the Hackwood and Naas Lacken form is imo at least as good if not better than his Railway Stakes victory. So he may not have “won over 6f for two years”, but has run at least as well in the interim… And that was for a different trainer too. Form seemed exposed for Johnny Murtagh by the end of the season. But Archie Watson has improved him, and every reason to think he’ll improve again. Yes, it was over 7f, but should be at least as effective at 6f. I might have been a little concerned with the drop back in trip had the race been at a fast track like York and / or on a faster surface. But Ascot is a fairly stiff 6f and on the weather forecast I doubt there’ll be “firm” in the official going.

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    #1697654
    stilvi
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    I’m not sure Watson has improved Shartash. He won a Group 2, and was placed in Group 1’s as a 2yo. That’s a far cry from scrambling home from a Group 3 horse over an extra furlong. I think he needs to step up considerably, and I don’t think he should be ahead of Mitbaahy in the market. Mitbaahy won a Group 2 impressively. I would say that’s not far off the best form on offer. The big field to him is probably an advantage as he needs a pace to run at.

Viewing 17 posts - 579 through 595 (of 597 total)
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