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March 11, 2024 at 00:16 #1684459
“Ryanair Chase
(2.9%) £29 @ 16/1 (B365 NRNB) Protektorat (min 14/1)”
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(3.2%) £32 @ 8/1 (WH) Capodanno (min 15/2)Taken some 10.5 on the machine. If you want to wait then 10.0 might be available, £4 is available @ 9.6 but am not going to give a £32 advice bet like that. Liquidity is bad and can’t wait forever so have put it up @ 8/1.
Value Is EverythingMarch 11, 2024 at 12:11 #1684514My Champion Hurdle 100% Book:
State Man 73% 4/11
Irish Point 10.25% 17/2
Iberico Lord 7.75% 12/1
Nemean Lion 4.25% 22/1
Zarak The Brave 2% 50/1
Not So Sleepy 1.5% 66/1
Luccia 0.75% 132/1
Colonel Mustard 0.5% 200/1Value Is EverythingMarch 11, 2024 at 13:31 #1684533Champion Hurdle Betting Without State Man:
£25 @ 10/1 (Betfair £25 available) Nemean Lion (min 7/1)Value Is EverythingMarch 11, 2024 at 13:57 #1684537“Champion Hurdle
(2.2%) £22 @ 30 (betfair £235 available) Iberico Lord (min 25/1)”
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(2.075%) £21 @ 38 (betfair £33 available) Nemean Lion (min 28/1)………..
Champion Hurdle Betting Without State Man:
(2.5%) £25 @ 10/1 (Betfair £25 available) Nemean Lion (min 7/1)”
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“Saver” (if IL wins without State Man I break even on the two markets)
£25 @ 3/1 (Laddies) Iberico Lord (min 3/1)Value Is EverythingMarch 11, 2024 at 15:59 #1684561“Supreme Novices:
(6.8%) £34 @ 5.4 (betfair £155 available) Mystical Power (min 4/1)
(3.75%) £19 @ 10.0 (betfair £59 available) Slade Steel (min 8/1)
(5.85%) £24 @ 100/30 (B365 NRNB) Mystical Power (min 100/30)
(4.55%) £26 @ 7/1 (Coral NRNB) Slade Steel (min 13/2)”
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(1.58%) £9 @ 43/1 (betfair £16 available) Favour And Fortune (min 40/1)
saver:
£9 @ 12.5/1 (betfair £113 available) Mistergif (min 11/1)Value Is EverythingMarch 11, 2024 at 20:07 #1684630I now think it might be too soft for Kilbeg King so although has drifted a little am getting out of the saver:
“National Hunt Chase
(2.25%) £22 @ 25/1 (Sky NRNB) Apple Away (min 22/1)
(9.6) £96 @ 2/1 (Coral) Corbetts Cross (min 7/4)
saver:
£10 @ 12/1 (B365) Kilberg King (min 11/1)”
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LAY £9 @ 14 (betfair £85 available) Kilbeg King (max 15)Value Is EverythingMarch 11, 2024 at 22:17 #1684645With the softer ground placing more emphasis on stamina, Corbetts Cross doesn’t have quite the chance I first thought. Although he still is value, unlike Apple Away who’s shortened up considerably! I also may have underestimated Embassy Gardens. I thought he’d shown signs of temperament but has done nothing wrong since going over fences.
This is my new 100% book for Soft ground:
34.5% 15/8 Corbetts Cross
34.5% 15/8 Embassy Gardens
10% 9/1 Salvador Ziggy
9.5% 10/1 Apple Away
4.5% 22/1 Kilbeg King
3.5% 28/1 Harry’s Friend
3.5% 28/1 Mr Vango“National Hunt Chase
(2.25%) £22 @ 25/1 (Sky NRNB) Apple Away (min 22/1)
(9.6) £96 @ 2/1 (Coral) Corbetts Cross (min 7/4)
saver:
£10 @ 12/1 (B365) Kilberg King (min 11/1)”
LAY £9 @ 14 (betfair £85 available) Kilbeg King (max 15)”
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part saver:
£25 @ 3.3 (betfair £37 available) Embassy Gardens (min 85/40)If I did the bet now, Corbetts Cross would’ve been: 85 @ 3.4 with 85/40 as the min price.
If corbetts does shorten up a bit I might lay a little of the 96 back.Value Is EverythingMarch 11, 2024 at 22:55 #1684658This is my current 100% book for the Supreme:
Mystical Power 22% 7/2
Slade Steel 21% (almost halfway between 4/1 and 7/2)
Tullyhill 19% (almost halfway between 9/2 and 4/1)
Jericko Du Reponent 10% 9/1
Mistergiff 10% 9/1
Firefox 9% 10/1
Favour And Fortune 3.25% 28/1
Asian Master 3% 33/1
Tellherthename 2% 50/1
Gold Dancer 0.75% 132/1
Supersundae 0.3% 300/1
King Hill 0.2% 500/1With Slade Steel I make now 21% and is available @ 6.4 which is 15.6%
So 21 – 15.6 = 5.4
54 + 21 = 75 = 7.5% or £75 and I’ve only had £45 on it so far.
Therefore another £30…“Supreme Novices:
(6.8%) £34 @ 5.4 (betfair £155 available) Mystical Power (min 4/1)
(3.75%) £19 @ 10.0 (betfair £59 available) Slade Steel (min 8/1)
(5.85%) £24 @ 100/30 (B365 NRNB) Mystical Power (min 100/30)
(4.55%) £26 @ 7/1 (Coral NRNB) Slade Steel (min 13/2)”
(1.58%) £9 @ 43/1 (betfair £16 available) Favour And Fortune (min 40/1)
saver:
£9 @ 12.5/1 (betfair £113 available) Mistergif (min 11/1)”
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So an extra:
(7.5%) £30 @ 6.4 (betfair £1935 available) Slade Steel (min 5/1)I’ll hope to reduce my bet on Mystical Power a bit if and when it shortens a little from the 4/1 it now is.
Value Is EverythingMarch 11, 2024 at 23:50 #1684664“Supreme Novices:
(6.8%) £34 @ 5.4 (betfair £155 available) Mystical Power (min 4/1)
(3.75%) £19 @ 10.0 (betfair £59 available) Slade Steel (min 8/1)
(5.85%) £24 @ 100/30 (B365 NRNB) Mystical Power (min 100/30)
(4.55%) £26 @ 7/1 (Coral NRNB) Slade Steel (min 13/2)”
(1.58%) £9 @ 43/1 (betfair £16 available) Favour And Fortune (min 40/1)
saver:
£9 @ 12.5/1 (betfair £113 available) Mistergif (min 11/1)
(7.5%) £30 @ 6.4 (betfair £1935 available) Slade Steel (min 5/1)”
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With more rain forecast I have too much invested in MP so…
LAY £20 @ 5.2 (betfair £110 available) Mythical PowerValue Is EverythingMarch 12, 2024 at 00:07 #1684669“Supreme Novices:
(6.8%) £34 @ 5.4 (betfair £155 available) Mystical Power (min 4/1)
(3.75%) £19 @ 10.0 (betfair £59 available) Slade Steel (min 8/1)
(5.85%) £24 @ 100/30 (B365 NRNB) Mystical Power (min 100/30)
(4.55%) £26 @ 7/1 (Coral NRNB) Slade Steel (min 13/2)”
(1.58%) £9 @ 44 (betfair £16 available) Favour And Fortune (min 40/1)
£9 @ 12.5/1 (betfair £113 available) Mistergif (min 11/1) saver
(7.5%) £30 @ 6.4 (betfair £1935 available) Slade Steel (min 5/1)
LAY £20 @ 5.2 (betfair £110 available) Mythical Power (max 5.3)
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another
(2.0%) £11 @ 42 (betfair £23 available) Favour And Fortune (min 33/1)Value Is EverythingMarch 12, 2024 at 01:04 #1684675SUPREME NOVICES HURDLE
(It Keeps changing, as there’s more rain on the way)
My 100% book now is:
SLADE STEEL 22% 7/2
Tullyhill 22% 7/2
Mystical Power 18% 9/2
MISTERGIFF 10% 9/1
Jericko Du Reponent 9% 10/1
Firefox 9% 10/1
FAVOUR AND FORTUNE 3.75% 25/1
Asian Master 3% 33/1
Tellherthename 2% 50/1
Gold Dancer 0.75% 132/1
Supersundae 0.3% 300/1
King Hill 0.2% 500/1“Supreme Novices:
(6.8%) £34 @ 5.4 (betfair £155 available) Mystical Power (min 4/1)
(3.75%) £19 @ 10.0 (betfair £59 available) Slade Steel (min 8/1)
(5.85%) £24 @ 100/30 (B365 NRNB) Mystical Power (min 100/30)
(4.55%) £26 @ 7/1 (Coral NRNB) Slade Steel (min 13/2)”
(1.58%) £9 @ 44 (betfair £16 available) Favour And Fortune (min 40/1)
£9 @ 12.5/1 (betfair £113 available) Mistergif (min 11/1) saver
(7.5%) £30 @ 6.4 (betfair £1935 available) Slade Steel (min 5/1)
LAY £20 @ 5.2 (betfair £110 available) Mythical Power (max 5.3)
(2.0%) £11 @ 42 (betfair £23 available) Favour And Fortune (min 33/1)”
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LAY another £5 @ 5.2 (betfair £53 available) Mystical Power (max 5.3)
And to make the saver a main bet…
(3.6%) £27 @ 13.5 (betfair £238 available) Mistergiff (min 11/1)Value Is EverythingMarch 12, 2024 at 01:56 #1684680I’ve looked through the form again and there are very few who are sure to stay the trip on the going.
This is my new 100% book for very Soft ground:
WAS…..EDIT….THIS MORNING
2/1 Embassy Gardens 2/1
5/2 Corbetts Cross 3/1
6/1 Apple Away 11/2
9/1 Salvador Ziggy 9/1
16/1 Mr Vango 12/1
22/1 Kilbeg King 22/1
33/1 Harry’s Friend 50/1The softer ground has changed the race enormously.
“National Hunt Chase
(2.25%) £22 @ 25/1 (Sky NRNB) Apple Away (min 22/1)
(9.6) £96 @ 2/1 (Coral) Corbetts Cross (min 7/4)
saver:
£10 @ 12/1 (B365) Kilberg King (min 11/1)”
LAY £9 @ 14 (betfair £85 available) Kilbeg King (max 15)”
part saver:
£25 @ 3.3 (betfair £37 available) Embassy Gardens (min 85/40 NOW 9/4)
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Another:
(4.0) £18 @ 8.8 (betfair £79 available) Apple Away (min 7/1)
LAY £50 @ 3.5 (betfair £587 available) Corbetts Cross (max 3.5)Value Is EverythingMarch 12, 2024 at 08:09 #1684714^
saver:
£5 @ 14/1 (B365) Mr Vango (min 14/1)Value Is EverythingMarch 12, 2024 at 08:52 #1684735“National Hunt Chase
(2.25%) £22 @ 25/1 (Sky NRNB) Apple Away (min 22/1)
(9.6) £96 @ 2/1 (Coral) Corbetts Cross (min 7/4)
saver:
£10 @ 12/1 (B365) Kilberg King (min 11/1)”
LAY £9 @ 14 (betfair £85 available) Kilbeg King (max 15)”
part saver:
£25 @ 3.3 (betfair £37 available) Embassy Gardens (min 85/40 NOW 9/4)
(4.0) £18 @ 8.8 (betfair £79 available) Apple Away (min 7/1)
LAY £50 @ 3.5 (betfair £587 available) Corbetts Cross (max 3.5)
saver:
£5 @ 14/1 (B365) Mr Vango (min 14/1)”
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LAY another £15 @ 3.6 (betfair £127 available) Corbetts Cross (max 3.75)Value Is EverythingMarch 12, 2024 at 10:17 #1684757“Supreme Novices:
(6.8%) £34 @ 5.4 (betfair £155 available) Mystical Power (min 4/1)
(3.75%) £19 @ 10.0 (betfair £59 available) Slade Steel (min 8/1)
(5.85%) £24 @ 100/30 (B365 NRNB) Mystical Power (min 100/30)
(4.55%) £26 @ 7/1 (Coral NRNB) Slade Steel (min 13/2)”
(1.58%) £9 @ 44 (betfair £16 available) Favour And Fortune (min 40/1)
£9 @ 12.5/1 (betfair £113 available) Mistergif (min 11/1) saver
(7.5%) £30 @ 6.4 (betfair £1935 available) Slade Steel (min 5/1)
LAY £20 @ 5.2 (betfair £110 available) Mythical Power (max 5.3)
(2.0%) £11 @ 42 (betfair £23 available) Favour And Fortune (min 33/1)”
LAY another £5 @ 5.2 (betfair £53 available) Mystical Power (max 5.3)
(3.6%) £27 @ 13.5 (betfair £238 available) Mistergiff (min 11/1)
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LAY another £20 @ 5.1 (betfair £5634 available) Mystical Power (max 5.6)Value Is EverythingMarch 12, 2024 at 11:18 #1684789“Champion Hurdle
(2.2%) £22 @ 30 (betfair £235 available) Iberico Lord (min 25/1)
(2.075%) £21 @ 38 (betfair £33 available) Nemean Lion (min 28/1)………..
Champion Hurdle Betting Without State Man:
(2.5%) £25 @ 10/1 (Betfair £25 available) Nemean Lion (min 7/1)”
saver:
£25 @ 3/1 (Laddies) Iberico Lord (min 3/1)”
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saver:
£37 @ 2.64 (betfair £78 available) Irish Point (min 2.5)
another:
£5 @ 4.3 (betfair £90 available) Iberico Lord (min 3/1)Value Is EverythingMarch 12, 2024 at 13:50 #1684839DAY 1 CHELTENHAM
Supreme Novices:
(6.8%) £34 @ 5.4 (betfair £155 available) Mystical Power (min 4/1)
(3.75%) £19 @ 10.0 (betfair £59 available) Slade Steel (min 8/1) 1st
(5.85%) £24 @ 100/30 (B365 NRNB) Mystical Power (min 100/30)
(4.55%) £26 @ 7/1 (Coral NRNB) Slade Steel (min 13/2)
(1.58%) £9 @ 44 (betfair £16 available) Favour And Fortune (min 40/1)
£9 @ 13.5 (betfair £113 available) Mistergif (min 11/1) saver
(7.5%) £30 @ 6.4 (betfair £1935 available) Slade Steel (min 5/1)
LAY £20 @ 5.2 (betfair £110 available) Mythical Power (max 5.3)
(2.0%) £11 @ 42 (betfair £23 available) Favour And Fortune (min 33/1)
LAY another £5 @ 5.2 (betfair £53 available) Mystical Power (max 5.3)
And to make the saver a main bet…
(3.6%) £27 @ 13.5 (betfair £238 available) Mistergiff (min 11/1)
LAY another £20 @ 5.1 (betfair £5634 available) Mystical Power (max 5.6)STAKE 189
RETURN £6351st Slade Steel Returns 190, 208, 192 and +45 lays = R635 – 189 = +£446
+£446.00
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Champion Hurdle
(2.2%) £22 @ 30 (betfair £235 available) Iberico Lord (min 25/1)
(2.075%) £21 @ 38 (betfair £33 available) Nemean Lion (min 28/1)
STAKE £43.00
-£43.00
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Champion Hurdle Betting Without State Man:
(2.5%) £25 @ 11 (Betfair £25 available) Nemean Lion (min 7/1)
savers:
£25 @ 3/1 (Laddies) Iberico Lord (min 3/1)
£37 @ 2.64 (betfair £78 available) Irish Point (min 2.5) 1st
£5 @ 4.3 (betfair £90 available) Iberico Lord (min 3/1)
BACK £92
RETURNS £97.681st Irish Point R97.68 – 92 = +£5.68
+5.68
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National Hunt Chase
(2.25%) £22 @ 25/1 (Sky NRNB) Apple Away (min 22/1) -£22
(9.6) £96 @ 2/1 (Coral) Corbetts Cross (min 7/4) 1st +£192
saver:
£10 @ 12/1 (B365) Kilberg King (min 11/1) -£10
LAY £9 @ 14 (betfair £85 available) Kilbeg King (max 15) +£9
part saver:
£25 @ 3.3 (betfair £37 available) Embassy Gardens (min 85/40 NOW 9/4) -£25
(4.0) £18 @ 8.8 (betfair £79 available) Apple Away (min 7/1) -£18
LAY £50 @ 3.5 (betfair £587 available) Corbetts Cross (max 3.5) -£125
saver:
£5 @ 14/1 (B365) Mr Vango (min 14/1) -£5
LAY another £15 @ 3.6 (betfair £127 available) Corbetts Cross (max 3.75) -£39STAKE £176 (£340 incl. Lays)
RETURNS £297Corbetts Cross R288 + Lay R9 = £297
L125 + L39 = 164 + 176 = £340-£43.00
Day’s profit / loss
+£446.00 Supreme
-£43.00 Champion Hurdle
+£5.68 Champion Hurdle Betting Without State Man
-£43.00 National Hunt Chase
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+£365.68Betting Bank
£10,365.68Profit
£365.68Value Is Everything -
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