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What was looking a tough day turned around with a nice 20/1 winner! :good well done GT
tbh TheNovice, I feel the novice got me out of trouble today… And only just got there too. I got out of the Nick. Phew!
Value Is Everything14:25 Sandown Oaksey Chase:
(4.3%) £36 @ 10.0 (betfair £40 available) Al Dancer (min 15/2)
(6.35%) £72 @ 3/1 (bet365) Hitman (min 3.95) 3rd
£20 @ 3.8 (betfair £48 available) The Real Whacker (min 3.75)
STAKES £128-£128.00
————————————————————-15:00 Sandown Celebration Chase:
(2.225%) £25 @ 16 (betfair £27 available) Edwardstone (min 15) 3rd
£50 @ 1.77 (betfair £78 available) El Fabiolo (min 1.75) 2nd
(1.025%) £12 @ 50 (betfair £12 available) Boothill (min 50) 4th
STAKES £87-£87.00
————————————————————-Bet365 Gold Cup Sandown:
(2.9%) £32 @ 20/1 (B365) Minella Cocooner (min 16/1)
(6.4%) £70 @ 5.3 (betfair £83 available) Kittys Light (min 5.0)
£13 @ 10/1 (B365) Amirite (min 17/2)
£15 @ 9/1 (B365) Le Milos (min 17/2)
(7.0) £7 @ 5/1 (WH) Kittys Light (min 7/2)
(2.6%) £26 @ 33/1 (B365) Sam Brown (min 25/1)
£4 @ 40 (betfair £5 available) Enrilo (min 40)
£12 @ 9.2 (£679 available) Nick Rockett (min 9)
LAY £26 @ 28 (£72 available) Sam Brown (max 30)
£7 @ 23 (£163 available) Kinondo Kwetu (min 20)
STAKES £186
LAY +£26
RETURN £672 + 26 = £698.00+£512.00
——————————————————–16:10 Sandown Select Hurdle:
(5.65%) £64 @ 7/1 (B365) Ballyadam (min 6/1)
(8.35%) £91 @ 4.5 (betfair £91 available) Langer Dan (min 4.3)
STAKES £155-£155.00
——————————————————–Day’s Profit +£142.00
Betting Bank
£11,496.69Thread Profit +£1,496.69
Value Is Everything2025 GRAND NATIONAL
£20 @ 25/1 (PP) Minella Cocooner (min 16/1)On my staking plan I could go with double this stake, but it is too far away for stakes like that.
Value Is Everything^ I don’t usually get involved this far out in the Grand National. But imo Minella Cocooner is worth rating quite a bit better than the result of the Bet365 today. Time is 15+ seconds slower than Racing Post Standard. Whereas many races today actually beat standard. Steadily run / slowed it up – favouring both prominent runners and those with comparitive speed. Annual Invictis made the running and finished second. Fourth home Certainly Red was originally mid div before going more prominent from the start of the back straight. So both of them had positional advantage. Nick Rockett was mid div but he has more speed than most / a doubtful stayer, so the slowish pace was (to a degree) to his advantage. On the other hand, Minella Cocooner is a proper stayer and may well have won easier had the pace been stronger. Therefore the handicapper may not give the horse as much of a weight rise I believe his actual ability deserves. Can’t imagine MC running in any race between now and April next year that is likely to show his true ability either. ie He’s going to be well handicapped. Also now proven on both Good ground and heavy.
Value Is Everything2000 GUINEAS Newmarket:
(2.95%) £15 @ 19.0 (betfair £15 available) Notable Speech (min 15.0)
Another:
(4.15%) £10 @ 13.5 (betfair £10 available) Noble Speech (min 10.0)Value Is Everythingtbh It might be a good thing I lost in the Oaksey Chase.
With The Real Whacker, Hitman and Easygame coming into the race as the best horses but all out of form, it probably should have been discarded as a race too difficult to work out. Just because it’s a Graded race does not mean I have to bet! Hopefully I’ll learn.I think looking back, didn’t believe it at the time but subconsciously think I was allowing my heart to rule the head with Kitty’s Light too. He was – without hindsight – probably value, just not as big value as I thought.
Value Is Everything“2000 GUINEAS Newmarket:
(2.95%) £15 @ 19.0 (betfair £15 available) Notable Speech (min 15.0)
(4.15%) £10 @ 13.5 (betfair £10 available) Noble Speech (min 10.0)”
——————————————————————–
(4.65%) £14 @ 14.5 (betfair £14 available) Noble Speech (min 10.0)Value Is EverythingLOCKINGE Newbury 18th May:
(3.3%) £38 @ 12/1 (B365) Poker Face (min 11/1)Value Is Everything“Just because it’s a Graded race does not mean I have to bet! Hopefully I’ll learn.”
A lesson iv been trying to tell myself for a while
It’s just very hard not to have a bet in a race with Mr allergic to winning hitman in it
Very true FF.
tbh I probably would have opposed Hitman had he worn cheek pieces again. The first time blinkers lured me in.It’s not only that I had a bet in the race though, it’s who!
Am annoyed with myself – when knowing there were so many question marks about all the field – why did I end up backing the front two in the market (one a saver) AND three of the first four in the market?
Value Is EverythingSuppose I should be happy with the 20/1 winner on Saturday.
But – as can be seen on page 17 of the thread – in my 100% book I considered Minella Cocooner on the day to have a 12.5% fair 7/1 chance and he was available @ at least 11/1 (8.3%) on betfair in the morning. So according to my staking plan I should have had £62 in all on it instead of just £32…12.5 – 8.3 = 4.2
10 X 4.2 = 42
42 + 12.5 = 54.5
0.00545% of my betting bank.
At the time my betting bank was £11,355
So £11,355 X 0.00545 = 61.9
61.9 rounded up = 62 = £62So with already having £32 @ 20/1 I should have had another £30 on him @ 11/1.
I’d gone in again on my other antepost bet Kittys, but not Cocooner!
On Saturday I was possibly too concerned about the going changing and covering the good ground horses instead of focussing on what value there was.
Value Is Everything1000 GUINEAS Newmarket:
(2.9%) £33 @ 20/1 (WH) Cinderella’s Dream (min 15/1)Value Is Everything“1000 GUINEAS Newmarket:
(2.9%) £33 @ 20/1 (WH) Cinderella’s Dream (min 15/1)”
—————————————————–
(2.6%) £30 @ 33/1 (B365) Regal Jubilee (min 25/1)Value Is Everything14:15 Ascot Sagaro:
(8.5%) £98 @ 11/4 (B365) Sweet William (min 5/2)Value Is EverythingLove Trueshan to win the Sagaro, but he’s possibly on the downgrade, tends to take a strong hold on his first start after a break and has a 7 lb pen’. Might be easier for him to win a soft ground Group 1 than a Group 3.
Quickthorn will be dangerous if given a soft lead but wouldn’t want the ground to be too soft – some rain forecast – (thunder around Berkshire if not yet forecast for Ascot) . Quickthorn and Coltrane are only a year younger than Trueshan. Coltrane has run well this time of year – second in the Chester Cup and won this last year. Goes on good-soft but possibly wouldn’t want it too soft either. Last time he ran on “soft” was when 9th (@ 5/1) in the 2020 Ces’, which suggests connections have avoided the surface since. Caius Chorister won a group 3 in France on “Very Soft” but she goes up to 2 miles for the first time here and was a bit free at 1m6f. So whether shell stay if it’s soft remains to be seen. Also need to remember that although is weighted the same as all bar Trueshan, that is because this mare has a 3 lb penalty. Not sure she’s up to the task.
Sweet William is only 5 years old and progressive last year (up to the Champion Long Distance Cup anyway). 1 1/4 lengths second to Trueshan in the Doncaster Cup (good-soft) at level weights. Reproduction of that form would see him beat Trueshan with the latter’s penalty. Before that, runner-up in the Ebor on a faster surface. But also winner of the big 1m6f handicap at Goodwood on heavy the day the last few races had to be abandoned. So no ground worries here. Age on his side and stable in brilliant form at the moment. What’s not to like? Pace might be a problem if Quickthorn gets loose in front, but am willing to take a chance on that.
I’ll probably wait to hear how possible rain affects the ground before / if putting a saver up.
Value Is Everything
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