Ginger’s Winners 2024+

[Gingertipster]

I’ve been thinking for a while about getting back to betting. It may not be in earnest for a month or two, but I am currently going through the Grand National entries. Will probably be having an ante-post bet or two or four on that. Therefore I thought I’d start a new thread now.

There will be a difference to my old thread in the staking. So to explain that first:

I have devised a staking plan that is in some ways similar to the Kelly Critereon, but imo works better for punters that like more than one bet in a race. Anyone who’s already read this in the “TRANs” section of the forum might want to skip to the last few paragraphs.

GINGER’S CRITERION:
G = ((P – A) x 10) + P / 10

Where:
G = The percentage of betting bank to stake.
P = The Punter’s opinion of the Percentage chance of winning.
A = Available odds in percentage terms.

Or to put it another way:
The Punter’s opinion of the horse’s chance of winning in percentage terms…
Minus the Available Odds in percentage terms…
Times by 10…
Plus the Punter’s opinion of the percentage chance of winning…
Divided by 10.
Equals the Percentage of the betting bank to stake on this selection.

Timesing and dividing by 10 can be done very quickly by moving the decimal point or adding / subtracting a zero anyway. For anyone with just a little knowledge of mathematics can often work prices out in their head; which in my experience seldom works using Kelly.

Something thought by the punter to have a 50% (2.00) Evens chance of winning where 6/4 (2.5 or 1.5/1) 40% is the best price available…
50 – 40 = 10
10 x 10 = 100
100 + 50 = 150
150 ‘/, 10 = 15.00
15% of the betting bank to be staked @ 6/4 for this selection.

15% compared to what would in the same circumstances be 16.67% in the Kelly Criterion.

Here are some percentages and odds with a comparison to what it would be in the same circumstances when using the often talked about and well respected (amongst serious gamblers) Kelly Criterion.

Ginger’s Criterion (GC) has something thought by the punter as having a 68% (fair 40/85) chance of winning should have these percentages of the betting bank staked on them at the particular prices:
4/7 11.20%, 8/13 12.90%, 4/6 14.80, 8/11 16.90, 4/5 19.20
Compared to Kelly Criterion (KC):
4/7 12.00%, 8/13 16.00, 4/6 20.00, 8/11 24.00, 4/5 28.00

The percentage of the bank staked when something is massive value is a lot bigger than what it is with lesser value – particularly on the shorties. 19.20% @ 4/5 compared to 11.20% @ 4/7. However, it isn’t as much of a difference as Kelly’s. imo No bad thing. One of the criticisms I’ve heard about Kelly is one loser can set the punter back too much. Because although short prices have a big chance of winning and maybe excellent value, it still might lose and (with Kelly) 28% is a massive chunk out of the betting bank in one go! My 19.2% would be bad enough. At even shorter prices the amount risked is obviously even greater. I tend not to bet at shorter than 4/5 anyway, not that there’s no value to be had there, just a personal preference. Just that I myself am better at distinguishing between what is a fair 2/1 and what is a fair 6/4… than I am between a fair 1/2 and a 4/6.

At 60% (fair 4/6) GC has the percentage of betting bank stakes as:
5/6 11.50, 10/11 13.60, 20/21 14.80, Evens 16.00, 21/20 17.20
Compared to KC:
5/6 12.00, 10/11 16.00, 20/21 18.00, Evens 20.00, 21/20 21.90

At odds-on I’ve included a wider “margin for error” than odds-against. Best to be as sure as possible something is a value (good) bet when wagering big money. e.g. A horse thought to have a 60% (fair 4/6) will not be backed @ 8/11 and in the vast majority of cases not as a main bet @ 4/5 either; but is bet @ 5/6. 60% to 5/6’s 54.5% being a 5.5% margin for error.

At 50% (fair Evens) GC:
11/10 7.40, 6/5 9.50, 5/4 10.6, 11/8 12.90, 6/4 15.00, 13/8 16.90
Compared to KC:
11/10 4.55, 6/5 8.33. 5/4 10.00, 11/8 13.64, 6/4 16.67, 13/8 19.23

I do consider backing something I believe a 50% (fair Evens) chance as a main bet at just two prices better 11/10… However, I’d seldom make it a “main bet” because main bets are those with the most value in the race. So at that price / value it is More likely to be a saver, getting back what I’d lose if the other bet/s in the race did not win.

When the form is a little bit difficult to work out I may reduce stakes particularly on marginal value bets because it is less probable my assessments are correct. ie Up to 25% less than these stakes. So something believed to have a 50% chance that is available @ 11/10 the 7.40% could be reduced by 25% (1.65) to 5.55%. If it is very difficult to work out then the race is thrown out – no bet. Conversely, if I believe the form is particularly easy to work out I may add up to 20%. So something thought a fair 50% chance available @ 6/1 would if (and only if) I believed the race particularly easy to work out could have up to an extra 3,00% for a total of 18.00%. However, the vast majority of bets will not be increased or deceased from these figures.

At 38% (fair 13/8 near as damn it) GC:
15/8 7.00, 2/1 8.50, 85/40 9.80, 9/4 11.00, 5/2 13.20, 11/4 15.10
Compared to KC:
15/8 4.93, 2/1 7.00, 85/40 8.82, 9/4 10.44, 5/2 13.20, 11/4 15.45

Shorties mostly have less of the percentage bank staked than Kelly. Again, imo Kelly risks too much when there is a massive amount of value. Ginger’s Criterion generally has stakes increasing at a slower rate too. This gap between Ginger and Kelly is largest the shorter the odds are. The gap getting smaller until a 38% chance available @ 5/2 actually has exactly the same (13.2%) staked under both Ginger’s and Kelly’s formulas.

At 33% (almost a fair 2/1) GC:
9/4 5.50, 5/2 7.70, 11/4 9.60, 3/1 11.30, 100/30 13.20, 7/2 14.10
Compared to KC:
9/4 3.22, 5/2 6.20, 11/4 8.64, 3/1 10.67, 100/30 12.90, 7/2 13.86

33% is the first time the sixth price has a bigger stake with Ginger’s Criterion than Kelly. ie 14.10% Ginger’s as opposed to 13.86 for Kelly’s.

At 25% (fair 3/1) GC:
7/2 5.30, 4/1 7.50, 9/2 9.30, 5/1 10.80, 11/2 12.10, 6/1 13.20
Compared to KC:
7/2 3.57, 4/1 6.25, 9/2 8.33, 5/1 10.00, 11/2 11.36, 6/1 12.50

At 16.5% (almost a fair 5/1) GC:
6/1 3.85, 13/2 4.85, 7/1, 5.65 15/2 6.45, 8/1 7.05, 17/2 7.65
Compared to KC:
6/1 2.58, 13/2 3.65, 7/1 4.57, 15/2 5.37, 8/1 6.06, 17/2 6.68

At 10% (fair 9/1) GC:
11/1 2.70, 12/1 3.30, 13/1 3.90, 14/1 4.30, 15/1 4.80, 16/1 5.10, 18/1 5.70, 20/1 6.20
Compared to KC:
11/1 1.82, 12/1 2.50. 13/1 3.08, 14/1 3.57, 15/1 4.00, 16/1 4.38, 18/1 5.00, 20/1 5.50

At 10% all these stakes are within 1% of Kelly… even by including eight prices.

At 6% (near nigh a fair 16/1) GC:
20/1 1.80, 22/1 2.30, 25/1 2.80, 28/1 3.20, 33/1 3.70. 40/1 4.20, 50/1 4.60, 66/1 5.10
Compared to KC:
20/1 1.30, 22/1 1.73, 25/1 2.24, 28/1 2.64, 33/1 3.15, 40/1 3.65, 50/1 4.12, 66/1 4.58

When stakes are small Ginger’s Criterion percentages of the bank are all a touch higher than Kelly. At 6% all these stakes are within 0.75% of Kelly. One of the criticisms I’ve heard about Kelly is the punter doesn’t win enough on a bigger priced horse. This goes a little way to change that – even though it will still (rightly) be less than many level stakes punters are used to.

At 2% (fair 50/1) GC:
80/1 1.00, 100/1 1.20, 132/1 1.45, 150/1 1.53, 200/1 1.70, 250/1 1.80, 300/1 1.90, 500/1 2.00
Compared to KC:
80/1 0.77, 100/1 1.02, 132/1 1.26, 150/1 1.35, 200/1 1.51, 250/1 1.61, 300/1 1.67, 500/1 1.80

At 2% the difference here is less than 0.25%, but at this kind of price a small difference goes a long way.

At 0.5% (fair 200/1) GC:
300/1 0.25, 400/1 0.30 500/1 0.35, 999/1 0.45
Compared to KC:
300/1 0.17, 400/1 0.25, 500/1 0.30, 999/1 0.40

…And at the biggest prices there is barely any difference.

If a punter is more comfortable with smaller bets then – as with Kelly – it may be wise to use a fraction of Ginger’s Criterion. Half, Quarter, Eighth or even “Tenth Ginger’s”.

If you are going to back some horses I put up, please change the stakes accordingly both with the size of your bank and how cautious you want to be.

Value Is Everything

[Venture to Cognac]

Good luck with the thread GT

[Nathan Hughes]

Good luck with the thread Ginger..

Blackbeard to conquer the World

[Gingertipster]

Thanks Nathan and VTC.
tbh I may well need the luck.

Since I was betting seriously it seems a lot of the things that gave me an edge have been widely publicised and may no longer be profitable.

e.g.
I went through the form working out who was likely to get the run of the race, likely to be favoured by the pace. Who’s likely to lead and the pace they are likely to go, who’d race prominently, track pace, race mid-div, held up or be dropped out. It took some time, but because it took time the vast majority of punters (and bookmakers) didn’t bother and therefore I had an edge. Ten or twenty years ago all I needed to do was find a front runner in a small field with all the rest liking to be held up and it would be value. Now “pace maps” are available to the masses (including bookmakers) which can tell them in seconds… And as a result the front runner is half the price compared to what it would’ve been when I was raking it in… Also partly due to publicity around bloody “arbers”. Backing something at a bigger price before the race to lay it at shorter in running – once it gets a good position – for a guaranteed profit.

Ahhh, the good old days…

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

Let’s start with the biggest race:

Grand National
£39 @ 25/1 (B365) Kitty’s Light (min 16/1)

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

To explain the staking plan:
My idea of Kitty’s Light’s chance is 7%
Is available @ 25/1 which is equivalent to 3.8%
7 – 3,8 = 3.2
3.2 X 10 = 32
32 + 7 = 39
39 ‘/, 10 = 3.9
Which means Kitty’s Light gets 3.9% of the betting bank staked @ 25/1.

I’m working with a total bank of £10,000 which to the full Ginger’s Criterion equates to £390 staked, but am putting these bets up using One Tenth Ginger’s Criterion. So effectively working with a bank of £1000.

If you do follow my bets, please change stakes according to your own betting bank, how cautious you are and the odds available to you.

I won’t be taking my ante-post bets off my betting bank until they’ve run and with day of race bets will be recalculating the betting bank after each day’s racing – not after every bet.

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

“Grand National
£39 @ 25/1 (B365) Kitty’s Light (min 16/1)”
——————————————-
£26 @ 33/1 (B365) Minella Indo (min 25/1)

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

“Grand National
£39 @ 25/1 (B365) Kitty’s Light (min 16/1)
£26 @ 33/1 (B365) Minella Indo (min 25/1)”
——————————————
£26 @ 33/1 (WH) Threeunderthrufive (min 25/1)

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

“Grand National
£39 @ 25/1 (B365) Kitty’s Light (min 16/1)
£26 @ 33/1 (B365) Minella Indo (min 25/1)
£26 @ 33/1 (WH) Threeunderthrufive (min 25/1)”
———————————————-
£32 @ 14/1 (B365) Corach Rambler (min 12/1)

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

“Grand National
(3.9%) £39 @ 25/1 (B365) Kitty’s Light (min 16/1)
(2.6%) £26 @ 33/1 (B365) Minella Indo (min 25/1)
(2.6%) £26 @ 33/1 (WH) Threeunderthrufive (min 25/1)
(3.2%) £32 @ 14/1 (B365) Corach Rambler (min 12/1)”
———————————————-
(2.7%) £27 @ 18/1 (Betfair) 2.7% Noble Yeats (min 15/1, £60 currently available)

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

Ryanair Chase
(2.9%) £29 @ 16/1 (B365 NRNB) Protektorat (min 14/1)

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

This is going to be more difficult than I first thought, giving stakes as a percentage of a betting bank.

Reductions and increases in pounds staked depends on the person’s betting bank.
My betting bank is £10,000 but I was starting by using a 10th of my original staking plan.

eg With a £10,000 bank, if the first day of race bet is one I believe has a 25% (fair 3/1) chance which is available @ 4/1 (equivalent to 20%) it gets:

25 – 20 = 5
5 X 10 = 50
50 + 25 = 75
75 ‘/, 10 = 7.5
7.5% being the percentage of my bank to stake.
7.5% of £10,000 is £750, but I am using “One Tenth” of my Staking Plan, so instead of staking £750 I’d be staking £75.
That £75 stake of my first day of race bet is the same stake as me doing a full Staking Plan with a betting bank of £1,000… which is fine until that horse wins of loses.

Say it loses:
For a One Tenth Staking Plan:
£10,000 minus £75 + £9,925
So if the next bet was also imo 25% chance available @ 4/1…
7.5% of £9,925 would mean a stake this time of £74.44

Whereas if someone had a bank of £1,000 with a full staking plan in the same circumstances…
£1,000 minus £75 = £925
7.5% of £995 would mean a stake this time of £69.38

…Or if the first bet wins:
For a One Tenth Staking Plan:
£10,000 plus £300 = £10,300
7.5% of £10,300 gives a stake of £77.25

Whereas if someone had a bank of £1,000 to a Full Staking Plan…
£1,000 plus £300 = £1,300
7.5% of £1,300 gives a stake of £97.50

So the stake increases and decreases at a greater rate when using a Full Staking Plan.
I was hoping to use stakes which could be directly related to another TRFer’s betting bank (either a smaller or bigger bank) but that seems impossible using £ stakes.

So am going to put the percentage of bank my “Ginger’s Criterion” recommends to stake (in brackets) at the start of each bet. I’ll see if that works any better.

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

Champion Chase
(4.3%) £43 @ 9 (betfair £57 available) Edwardstone (min 7/1)

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

Stayers Hurdle
(8.8%) £88 @ 9/4 (B365 NRNB) Teaupoo (min 2/1)

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

Gold Cup – betting without Galopin Des Champs
(4.3%) £43 @ 8/1 (WH NRNB) Bravemansgame (min 7/1)
(3.3%) £33 @ 12/1 (WH NRNB) Corach Rambler (min 11/1)

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

Champion Hurdle
(2.2%) £22 @ 30 (betfair £235 available) Iberico Lord (min 25/1)

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

Half a bet as yet…

Gold Cup
(10.05%) £50 @ 2.56 (betfair £70 available) Galopin Des Champs (min 11/8)

Value Is Everything

[Author]

Posts