Ginger's Winners

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This topic contains 1,270 replies, has 24 voices, and was last updated by Gingertipster Gingertipster 6 days, 19 hours ago.

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  • #1446371

    MTOTO88
    Participant
    • Total Posts 283

    IS THIS ABOUT RIGHT?

    DECIMALS ODDS X (100% – BETTING% OF THE MARKET FAV) = W/O FAV ODDS

    EG 6/4 FAV AND CALCULATING W/O FAV ODDS FOR A 7/1 SHOT

    6/4 40%
    7/1 = 8.00 = 12.5%

    8.00 X (100% – 40%) = 8 X 0.60 4.80

    #1446374
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 25862

    King Ed:
    113 points @ 11/10 (Sky) Japan (min 20/21)
    saver:
    19 points @ 6/1 (betfair) Pondus (min 11/2)
    Another:
    29 points @ 6/1 (betfair) Pondus (min 11/2)
    21 points @ 18/1 (betfair) Humanitarian (min 16/1)

    LAY 10 points @ 4.5/1 (betfair) Pondus (min 5/1)

    value is everything
    #1446382
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 25862

    My way of doing the without the fav calculation is:
    If something YOU (not bookmakers) believe has a 40% chance (fair 6/4 shot) comes out…
    The rest of the field TOGETHER (100 – 40 =) 60% needs to be timesed 1.6666 to become 100%.

    So for one YOU (not bookmakers) believe had a fair 12.5% 7/1 chance in the betting with market:
    1.6666 X 12.5 = 20.83%… between 7/2 and 4/1 for the betting without market.

    However, be careful of doing that same calculation for non-runners. A front or even prominent runner coming out could alter each horse very differently. If a horse now has a big chance of dictating it’s chance will be much better than that calculation.

    value is everything
    #1446397

    MTOTO88
    Participant
    • Total Posts 283

    OK THANKS :good:

    SO IF I TRY YOU TURN THAT INTO A BASIC FORMULA, WHERE

    A = FAV’S BETTING PERCENTAGE. IN OUR EXAMPLE 6/4 = 40%
    B = HORSES FAIR CHANCE BETTING PERCENTAGE. IN OUR EXAMPLE 7/1 = 12.50%

    FORMULA BECOMES

    ___1___ X B
    (100-A)

    ___1___ X .125 0.2083 = 4.80
    0.60

    WHICH IS WHAT I SOMEHOW GOT EARLIER

    #1446400

    MTOTO88
    Participant
    • Total Posts 283

    A SLIGHTLY EASIER METHOD

    A = FAV’S BETTING PERCENTAGE. IN OUR EXAMPLE 6/4 = 40%
    B = HORSES ODDS X1. IN OUR EXAMPLE 7/1 X1 = 8.00

    (100% – A) X B

    (100%-40%) X 8.00 = 0.60 X 8.00 = 4.80

    #1446433
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 25862

    Presumably you mean 4.8 as decimal odds, so yes it’s the same as 20.8333

    I don’t do the converting to decimal/odds, Mtoto. I always use the percentage.
    Where 100 = 100%, 40 = 6/4 and 12.5 = 7/1.

    100 – 40 = 60
    100 ‘/, 60 = 1.6666
    1.6666 X 12.5 = 20.8333%

    20.8333 = 4.8 = 3.8/1
    tbh I don’t bother to get it down to the exact figure. Between 7/2 and 4/1 is enough for me. :good:

    value is everything
    #1446436

    MTOTO88
    Participant
    • Total Posts 283

    Thanks GT, apologies for gatecrashing your thread with my idle ramblings. The W/O FAV market is one I have meant to look at in more detail but have never taken time to look at the maths involved.

    #1446471

    Istabraq
    Participant
    • Total Posts 93

    Does invincible army in the 4:20 at 5.8/1 sound value to you?

    #1446479
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 25862

    No, Istabraq. Invincible Army wound be one I’ll be taking on unless he goes out to 13/2+.

    value is everything
    #1446483
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 25862

    Diamond Jubilee:
    31 points @ 10/1 (B365) City Light (min 17/2)
    33 points @ 12/1 (PP) The Tin Man (min 10/1)
    25 points each way @ 20/1 (betfair) Emblazoned (min 16/1)

    value is everything
    #1446484
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 25862

    Actually, that 25 points should’ve been 16. ^

    value is everything
    #1446485
    admin
    admin
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 645

    Are you sure about those prices GT. Best I can see on Oddschecker at time of your post is 8/1 COL, 11/1 TTM and 18/1 Emblazoned. Do you check them at time of posting?

    #1446500
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 25862

    Yes, of course I check every bet at time of posting.

    I usually put quoted bets in bold, but forgot to on this one occasion, David.
    That’s what you get without a bloody quote button!
    Take a look on page 66 of this thread and you’ll see:

    Diamond Jubilee:
    31 points @ 10/1 (B365) City Light (min 17/2)
    33 points @ 12/1 (PP) The Tin Man (min 10/1)

    …And if you look at the above post it clearly says “each way” and “(betfair)” for Emblazoned; so it wouldn’t be on oddschecker.
    I had to go to the each way market on betfair to get the 20/1 because it had gone throughout oddschecker/bookmakers and had gone in the betfair win market. It’s been 20/1 in the each way market pretty much all evening.

    Didn’t want to bet each way but had to because it was not available anywhere else… nd could lay off some of my place part of the Emblazoned bet on betfair’s place market. However, I can’t put it up yet because the price I’ve laid it at is not available at the moment. ie I never knowingly post a price that is not available at time of writing.

    value is everything
    #1446501

    Istabraq
    Participant
    • Total Posts 93

    I myself saw 20.0 available about 10mins after was posted here , may have been 21.0 few minutes before that

    Will you be doing any more bets tonight ginger? No rush if so

    #1446504
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 25862

    Came on to put a bet up for the Hardwicke but will have to wait because the price has now gone, Istabraq. Shouldn’t be too much longer.

    value is everything
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