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Hope you enjoyed Jessie J, she was a sellout at Newmarket last night and 30,000 turned out to see her.
Well done with Just the Judge and Mount Athos today also and unlucky with your double, those 25/1 shots have a bad habit of peppering the best of bets.Oh yes it is about the "money, money, money", when you’ve got to win to get money in the bank Triptych.
Did (amazingly) quite enjoy Jessie J, just don’t tell anyone I admitted to it.
Stayed for more of it than intended. Couldn’t hear many of the words, but maybe that’s a good thing?Wasn’t my "double" Triptych, that was Steve, my two bets came nowhere in the Hungerford.
As a member wasn’t looking forward to the "sell out" crowd, but not as bad as thought. Though heard it was awful coming from the M4 direction, my Andover route wasn’t too bad at all. Crowd got bigger through the day / closer to concert time, which helped. Members were allowed to use the owners & trainers bar. Just about enough room around the paddock and viewing not bad either. My little spot not found by the concert crowd until later in the day.
Suspect it might have been a different story for those Racing enthusiasts in Tatts.
Value Is Everything@stevecaution….sorry steve was rushing down the thread after getting back from Newmarket and misread your post as Gingers
Anyway regarding Galicain (a filly by the way) she looked absolutely kn@ckered in the paddock not like a filly should be looking, usually like to see them on their toes a bit. It could have been the 30 degrees heat that knocked her out as a lot of the horses were sweating buckets and the only horse that looked a million dollars was LAAJOOJ, who ran in the 3.55, who luckily I backed at a skinny 2/1 but still a winner. Simon Crisford was there and his face is so easy to read when he has a good one running.
Hoping Mark Johnston will give Galician a bit of time now and I’d stick my neck out to say she will win again this year. She was running on at the end of the race and passing horses managing to finish 5th going up the hill. He has her entered up at York for next week and I’m hoping she doesn’t run, but if she does I would give her another chance if the weather is cooler.
@Ginger..know what you mean about being a member and not attending the ‘party’ nights. The racing is usually poor and most of the people who attend aren’t interested in the horses, I did hang around for Tom Jones but gave Jessie J a miss, although reports were that she was very good, glad you enjoyed some of it but for us it seems it’s all about the horses, horses, horses
Good luck Steve and Ginger for the coming week and York..Come on Frankel..sure he’s not even going to notice the extra 2 furlongs
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Hi Ginge some good stuff there. it would seem 1 point for you = 1 pound sterling as you have posted a few times you bet X amount on Betfair and Y amount was available so if your stake was more than 1 pound you couldn’t have got on.
Like few of the lads I’ve thought of following your selections to a fiver or there about but need a favour.
You seem to always show a profit when you post a summary but can you tell us what is the worst position you have been in during each period?
In other words have you been in positions since April when you have been down a 1000 pounds 100 pound or whatever?
The reason I ask is if one did want to follow your selections what size of bank would they have needed to be able to start in each month if betting say 1 pound for 1 point?
Look forward to hearing from you so I know how much to put into another Betfair account so I don’t end up with no cash in the pot to continue
Cheers and good punting
Hi Ginge some good stuff there. it would seem 1 point for you = 1 pound sterling as you have posted a few times you bet X amount on Betfair and Y amount was available so if your stake was more than 1 pound you couldn’t have got on.
No Fist, my own punting is not 1 point per £1. My money is already on when I quote what’s left available to my follower/s. ie The quoted sum is not the amount available before I placed my bet, it’s the amount available afterwards. On page 47 of this thread Corm pointed out that I had (at times) quoted a price when there isn’t much liquidity (not much money for followers to take). Which I agreed isn’t exactly fair. Therefore (even if I’ve had a bet on something) I don’t put the bet up unless there is at least 1 point per £1 available for my follower to take. Of course I’d like it to be more than that, so more punters can get on. However, sometimes after my own bet (which sometimes takes most if not all the liquidity) I am often waiting around so as to be able to quote an "available" sum for my follower/s. As I was yesterday with two bets for the International, bets I still haven’t put up because of poor liquidity. This is time I should be spending on form study or looking for other bets of my own. Hence why the lowest liquidity I quote is 1 point per £1.
It’s one reason why I don’t quote betfair prices very often, usually only when significantly higher than bookmakers odds. Indeed, sometimes I will take betfair prices myself and then quote existing bookmakers odds in my thread.Value Is EverythingLike few of the lads I’ve thought of following your selections to a fiver or there about but need a favour.
You seem to always show a profit when you post a summary but can you tell us what is the worst position you have been in during each period?
In other words have you been in positions since April when you have been down a 1000 pounds 100 pound or whatever?
The reason I ask is if one did want to follow your selections what size of bank would they have needed to be able to start in each month if betting say 1 pound for 1 point?
Look forward to hearing from you so I know how much to put into another Betfair account so I don’t end up with no cash in the pot to continue
Cheers and good punting
It’s lucky that I usually start the season strongly, this year over 500 points up before the May Chester meeting.
However, youu may like to you look at my profit/loss post on page 72 Fist. It shows:
First a period from the Chester May meeting up to Royal Ascot I made a loss of -814.33 points. So if you’d only started betting at £5 per point at Chester you’d have been £4071.65 down by Royal Ascot.
Thankfully, I had an unbelievable Royal Ascot and got all that back, plus some. With +913.81 in 5 days. It is unusual to do quite so well in a short period.
Remarkably this was then followed immediately by another losing run which coincided with the World Cup. (have to be careful another year). Again losing over -800 points before recovering for (on that post) amazingly a post-Royal Ascot profit of +277.21. Significantly helped by a good Newmarket July Festival.
So (I believe) the longest run is about -800 points (though there were some winners amongst that figure). It must be bourn in mind losing runs can happen at any point and just imagine what it would’ve been like without Royal Ascot! -800 followed by another -800, a losing run of over 1600 points! At £5 per point a loss of -£8000
Might be best to allow for a losing run of at least 1000 points (£5000 at £5 per point). Using money that is not "needed" and hoping the highly unikely more devastating losing run does not occur.
From the book "Betting The Timeform Way", even a gambler with a strike rate of 50% can expect a losing run of 10 (on average) once every 2048 bets, a losing run of 20 (on average) once every 2097152 bets.
Someone averaging 33% can expect a losing run of 10 once every 173 bets and of 20 once every 9976 bets.Hope that helps Fist.
Value Is EverythingAfternoon Ginge, you mentioned you had a ‘good Ascot’ and ‘good July Festival’. I know I certainly do better at the bigger meetings both flat & jumps and now concentrate my efforts around these (have only had 4 bets between Goodwood & York next week where as I’ll probably have between 8 & 10 this week just on York).
Not sure if there is any reason for this & whether a cluster of top level races together just gets me in the right mindset and also gives a feel for draw bias, ground, jockey/trainer form in a narrow band of time.
Have you give this any consideration or do you think it’s just a statiscal quirk that you had your good runs at those times that coincided with the major meets?
@stevecaution….sorry steve was rushing down the thread after getting back from Newmarket and misread your post as Gingers
Good luck Steve and Ginger for the coming week and York..Come on Frankel..sure he’s not even going to notice the extra 2 furlongs
Thank you, I am due a change of luck. After Strong Suit on Saturday I decided on Reckless Abandon as my sole Sunday bet. Cut the grass, fell asleep on the Sofa and woke up 15 minutes AFTER he had won.
Main bet of the week for me is Ortensia. I think she looks different class on faster ground and has only Bated Breath to beat in my mind. I was not convinced by her before her win at Goodwood, where jockey William Buick said she was "Head and shoulders better than the opposition"
As the late Monkee Davey Jones sang:-
"Then I saw her race, now I’m a believer!!"
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Great Voltigeur
29 points @ 6/1 (betfair) Encke* (£125 available)Another main bet and possibly a saver to come.
Value Is EverythingAfternoon Ginge, you mentioned you had a ‘good Ascot’ and ‘good July Festival’. I know I certainly do better at the bigger meetings both flat & jumps and now concentrate my efforts around these (have only had 4 bets between Goodwood & York next week where as I’ll probably have between 8 & 10 this week just on York).
Not sure if there is any reason for this & whether a cluster of top level races together just gets me in the right mindset and also gives a feel for draw bias, ground, jockey/trainer form in a narrow band of time.
Have you give this any consideration or do you think it’s just a statiscal quirk that you had your good runs at those times that coincided with the major meets?
I have considered it Pants. I’ve noticed before I seem to be better at finding value in better class racing. Festivals = better class. Or it might be as you say a "mindset", a matter of concentration, I love these Festivals so it is easier to concentrate and look at races weeks or months before with them in mind.
It may be a coincidence, may be I only notice a good spell when it coincides with a Festival. Would I notice a good spell when betting on other grades/lesser meetings? If the stat continues will need to look at it a bit closer. However, York is not my favourite course. Found watering can change the draw advantage and some horses just don’t act on the turf/soil substance. Horses for courses matters more here than it should on a flat course.
Value Is EverythingGreat Voltigeur
29 points @ 6/1 (betfair) Encke* (£125 available)Another main bet and possibly a saver to come.
42 points @ 5/1 (SJ) Thomas Chippendale*
Value Is Everything3:40 York
Betting Without Frankel
17 points @ 4/1 (B365) Farhh*
8 points @ 12/1 (L) Planteur*Value Is Everything3:40 York
Betting Without Frankel
17 points @ 4/1 (B365) Farhh*
8 points @ 12/1 (L) Planteur*I took bigger than this last night (43/1 and 139/1) but no liquidity. Will have to put these up now otherwise I’ll get confused.
Betting with Frankel:
13 points @ 35/1 (betfair) Frankel* (£45 available)
7 points @ 119/1 (betfair) Planteur* (£10 available)Value Is Everything3:40 York
Betting Without Frankel
17 points @ 4/1 (B365) Farhh*
8 points @ 12/1 (L) Planteur*I took bigger than this last night (43/1 and 139/1) but no liquidity. Will have to put these up now otherwise I’ll get confused.
Betting with Frankel:
13 points @ 35/1 (betfair) Frankel* (£45 available)
7 points @ 119/1 (betfair) Planteur* (£10 available)20 points @ 9/4 (PP) Frankel to win by up to and including 4.5 lengths.
Value Is Everything3:40 York
Betting Without Frankel
17 points @ 4/1 (B365) Farhh*
8 points @ 12/1 (L) Planteur*I took bigger than this last night (43/1 and 139/1) but no liquidity. Will have to put these up now otherwise I’ll get confused.
Betting with Frankel:
13 points @ 35/1 (betfair) Frankel* (£45 available)
7 points @ 119/1 (betfair) Planteur* (£10 available)20 points @ 9/4 (PP) Frankel to win by up to and including 4.5 lengths.
1 point @ 94/1 (betfair) Twice Over (£48 available)
Value Is EverythingLike few of the lads I’ve thought of following your selections to a fiver or there about but need a favour.
You seem to always show a profit when you post a summary but can you tell us what is the worst position you have been in during each period?
In other words have you been in positions since April when you have been down a 1000 pounds 100 pound or whatever?
The reason I ask is if one did want to follow your selections what size of bank would they have needed to be able to start in each month if betting say 1 pound for 1 point?
Look forward to hearing from you so I know how much to put into another Betfair account so I don’t end up with no cash in the pot to continue
Cheers and good punting
It’s lucky that I usually start the season strongly, this year over 500 points up before the May Chester meeting.
However, youu may like to you look at my profit/loss post on page 72 Fist. It shows:
First a period from the Chester May meeting up to Royal Ascot I made a loss of -814.33 points. So if you’d only started betting at £5 per point at Chester you’d have been £4071.65 down by Royal Ascot.
Thankfully, I had an unbelievable Royal Ascot and got all that back, plus some. With +913.81 in 5 days. It is unusual to do quite so well in a short period.
Remarkably this was then followed immediately by another losing run which coincided with the World Cup. (have to be careful another year). Again losing over -800 points before recovering for (on that post) amazingly a post-Royal Ascot profit of +277.21. Significantly helped by a good Newmarket July Festival.
So (I believe) the longest run is about -800 points (though there were some winners amongst that figure). It must be bourn in mind losing runs can happen at any point and just imagine what it would’ve been like without Royal Ascot! -800 followed by another -800, a losing run of over 1600 points! At £5 per point a loss of -£8000
Might be best to allow for a losing run of at least 1000 points (£5000 at £5 per point). Using money that is not "needed" and hoping the highly unikely more devastating losing run does not occur.
From the book "Betting The Timeform Way", even a gambler with a strike rate of 50% can expect a losing run of 10 (on average) once every 2048 bets, a losing run of 20 (on average) once every 2097152 bets.
Someone averaging 33% can expect a losing run of 10 once every 173 bets and of 20 once every 9976 bets.Hope that helps Fist.
Very much so. Thanks Ginge
I think the problem most punters have when following someone else’s selections is sticking with them though thick and thin. I do think you’ve proved your way of betting is pretty bomb proof over a length of time though.
Rather than pick up the scraps prices wise I think I’ll pick my own selections using your idea and see how it goes. Even if I lose 5k it will last a lot longer than the last time I lost that amount which took less than 4 minutes
Happy punting and keep up the good work
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