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It probably makes more sense to wait until the entries/weights are officially revealed, but plenty of firms have it priced up, so worth look.
https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/galway-plate/winner
My long term fancy for this is Azzuri. I was mad keen on him for this last year, but he didn’t even get an entry. I think that he could potentially step out of handicap company, for all that he appears to need the ground very much on the quick side. Opportunities maybe thin on the ground then for him to prove it, but when he does get it, he is a fantastic horse. The 14-1 is a smashing price for him on the face of it, but maybe just worth holding fire. Who’s to say he’ll get his ground, and he also holds an entry in The Galway Hurdle. The trip is something of an unknown, but he shapes as though it’ll suit, and though he’s a lot higher in the weights for his romp at Ayr, he was very, very good that day, and he looks a big player here.
My other long term fancy for this is A Toi Phil. Versatile type, who spent a lot of last season running over inadequate trips, and also mixed fences and hurdles. His best run of last season was his fifth in The Pertemps Hurdle, showing that they can get him ready when they want to. His run last week over hurdles at Killarney was hardly encouraging, but last season he looked like a horse who was getting prepped for something over the larger obstacles, and I’m pretty sure that Aintree and Fairyhouse weren’t part of a long term goal. He’s been an admirable servant for connections, coming up just short of Grade 1 Material, but as a result of last seasons campaign, he’s on a very nice looking mark, and will come here lower than when making the frame two years ago, and getting closer to the mark where he won the big Leapordstown Handicap. Looks a big player at a big price. Can’t see him being 25’s on the day.
Like Azzuri, Peregrine Run also holds an entry in The Hurdle, but wherever he goes, he looks one to take seriously. Since his unseat in The Topham, he’s been on fire, over both timber and fences, and it looks as if he could have more to offer. I’ve always been a fan, and great to see him finally deliver. He looks a crazy price here at 20’s, but will connections fancy a tilt at The Hurdle, off a significantly lower mark?
Borice is another who’s had a good summer, with a couple of wins under his belt. Elliot obviously has him going the right way, but this is a different ball game to what he’s faced since moving from France, and although he’s still got bags of potential, is he a bit short on overall achievements? Market should tell us more in the next week, as the mere fact that he’s put in at 12’s, is enough to get me interested. Same applies to Mengli Khan for Elliot. The potential is there, and very highly touted from day one, but is he really an 8-1 chance at this stage. Plenty of time to actually deliver, and not to say he won’t, but he’s came up short on more than one occasion, and I’d like to have seen more from a market leader at this stage.
Vying for favouritism with him is Heron Heights, based on his win at Punchestown. He was visually impressive that day, and his trainer is to be feared, but I’d question the form of that race, and as much as he looks like running a big race, I’d still like to see bigger than 8’s, 10’s right now.
Another horse who ran very well at Punchestown, and always one to get a good word from me is Regal Encore. He’ll never ever appeal Antepost, but if he got here on the day, he has a chance. Not weighted out of it, has big field handicap form, proves he’ll take the journey over in his stride, and represents an owner in JP, who takes this race very seriously. Very definitely one for the day, which is a shame, as that 25’s is smashing.
Another JP horse who could travel over is Modus. Now this is a very interesting one, and with stablemate Black Corton likely to get more of the headlines, he could just sneak under the radar here. Mark looks good, trip is ideal, and he’s always looked like a horse who had a proper big handicap in him, and the 20’s looks fair. 20’s is also best price for Black Corton, which also looks too big. Possibly a bit hit and miss, but overall, he’s a top end handicapper who could bowl along nicely here if Bryony Frost can get a good tune out of him, and a repeat of his Sandown run puts him bang there. I find it very difficult to find a negative with the Nicholls pair, and they definitely muddy the waters here.
JP can call on a few more here, but perhaps the biggest profile of them all, is Coney Island, but he’s high enough in the weights for overall achievements, and he still looks short of his best on his last seasons evidence. If he is back to his best, then the mark won’t matter that much, but he’s as low as 9’s, and I’d want bigger than that. Auvergnat’s win in The Paddy Power was top drawer stuff, and he’ll always be on my radar after a win like that, but there’s just a question mark over his current rating, and whether or not that will stop him.
This isn’t a race where I’d automatically look for a Mullins runner, but it would be madness not to have a look, and he still has a few in there, who really do look worth a second look. Yorkhill is not the obvious starting point. Very big at 25’s, and he’s been discussed enough on here and elsewhere, so the reason he’s that price is understandable. Still, the current mark of 155 looks fair on back form, and they do seem to be persevering. He could finish stone last, but I just don’t know, he’s interesting to me, and I think he’s too big a price. The one who looks more realistic though is Pylonthepressure. Probably best known for one of the worst rounds of jumping I’ve ever seen, in The 2018 National Hunt Chase, and he also took a soft fall at Tramore in April. His run at Ballinrobe though, in The Mayo National behind Peregrine Run, was a lot more like it, and it was a run that screamed “Galway Plate”. Major player for Rich Ricci, who also looks to have a chance with Some Neck.
I’ll give the race another look closer to the time, and that’s enough for now, but there a few more who are worth an early mention.
I thought that Ravenhill would be shorter for his win in The Trial last week, and being an Elliot horse, I think that the price will contract, while old Valseur Lido’s mark continues to plummet, and should he sneak in, I wouldn’t be writing him off. I still can’t get away from that run in The Byrne Group Plate at Cheltenham, where he basically had a quiet stroll round. Finally, The West Awakes is a very decent sort, and though not a household name, if the rain stayed away, she could surprise a few.
As I said though, more than enough for now, and no early play, but I’ll be checking the weather for Azzuri. In all likelihood, I’ll play this pair this week, as they’re both proper long term targets of mine, but I’ll see how it goes, it’s not as if there isn’t the odd danger in there….
A Toi Phil 25’s EW 5 Places
Azzuri 14’sGood to see this thread up. I’m looking forward to this race having been slightly underwhelmed by the summer jumps so far, with a few exceptions.
I have two main fancies for this, both horses that I’ve been following recently.
Pylonthepressure, as you say, has learned to jump in his time off. Still not sure track and trip will suit but I think he is a good horse and they will likely run him while he’s sound. If the big beast can stay out of bother and make a decent fist of the double, hopefully he can stay well enough positioned to crank into gear up the hill.I’ll be backing him and Ravenhill who I think is another who could be a “breakout” horse from the summer.
Minella Beau would be interesting if it keeps raining over this side of the ditch; has the all important course form and the owners seem to like having runners at the meeting. Might be more targeted towards one of the autumn Nationals though.
I agree with your thoughts on Heron Heights. A sensible horse who doesn’t mind a big field but on a career high mark and ?saves his best for Punchestown? I may well back him again in future but not for this and I think he is far too short.
Yorkhill: if they want to completely wreck his head, a big field handicap on a tricky right handed track is probably the way forward
Coney Island: I love the horse (and backed him for the Ryanair this year) but fear he has mentally and/or physically lost it. I would love to be proved wrong and see him ping round here but won’t be on him.
Peregrine Run won’t get his ground I don’t think.
I love Pravalaguna but her jumping might suffer under pressure round here. One-bad-mistake-cost-it-the-race horse.
Modus…is he the horse that didn’t used to be able to jump? Can he jump now? Can he jump with 20 horses round him?
Black Corton: not convinced by him on an undulating track and Bryony is going to have to learn to ride Galway very quickly. No better woman though.
Pylonthepressure
Ravenhill
Minella Beau (if it rains a lot)Owner of Azzuri on Twitter very negative about the horse’s chance at the trip/track though does work on a trading floor and might be putting the world away!
Yeah LS, no sure how to read those comments. Keeping a close eye on the markets with this one.
I like two in this at the moment.
Snugsborough Benny 14-1
Drumcliff 25-1I am swaying towards betting just Drumcliff just now, purely in anticipation of a possible gamble.
I went ahead with
Ravenhill 16s
Pylonthepressure 14s
just in case Paul Kealy and David Jennings are keen on either (racingpost Galway Q+A starting 6pm)Can’t have Azzuri in a horsebox personally.
Money for Borice is interesting, maybe certain Tory members having it right off?
Two for me at prices –
Barra 20/1
Was going to bolt up LTO when falling at the last and is well in if that fall hasn’t left a mark on her. Like her back class, was third in the Coral Cup last year & second to Lets Dance in the Mares the year prior. Will stay the trip fine & she looks overpriced to me.
Regal Encore 25/1
Well handicapped off 144 here – Won off 150 at Ascot just last season and has had a handful of runs since with this years National in mind. Also ran a cracker to be third in the 17 Hennessy off 150. Trip should be about perfect for him and this will have been a long term plan.
Agree Kev, and Regal Encore will be my third string here.
Pleased my original pair have made it here with price intact, so glad I left them Antepost, it’s worked out well….so far.
Still not bet them, as no blue yet, but at the moment
Azzuri 14’s Win
A Toi Phil 33’s EW 5 Places
Regal Encore 25’s EW 5 PlacesOn Barra myself after her fall last time which didn’t please me!
Couple of the owners of Ravenhill live beside me and drink in our bar. They fancy him which is obvious. Personally didn’t think he’d get to this level, but that’s a testiment to Elliot’s placing. Will be cheering him even without any money on! They’ve had previous good fortune with Organisedconfusion in the Irish National!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Crosshue Boy @ 33/1 for me. Some 5 places action.
It’s a convoluted case for him and you need a forgiving heart but I’m willing to make a few excuses:
– Didn’t take to Aintree in the Becher Chase
– Seemingly ‘not off’ or not fit prior to that run, over hurdles and latest at Wexford
– Unlucky to fall in the Scottish National when sent single figures extremely well-backed
– Rushed out 9 days after that experience in a G2I think he’s on a good mark and I’m glad to see the jockey who knows the horse best (Harley Dunne) finally given the chance to ride him on a big day.
Cheers – yeah actually some 6 places around at 33/1 now if you’ve got a SkyBet. Might tap somebody up to get me on for an e/w double with the big-priced fancy at Redcar, then spend the evening contemplating my retirement!
Although I thought it was going to be Yorkhill who suddenly didn’t want his brekkie this morning, or whatever the reason is. As it is, Drumcliff is a NR too so Pylonthepressure would have got in anyway.
Hardly encouraging that they’ve all drifted, but my trio all bigger than Antepost prices, so I’ll take that right now.
Can go six places the lot of them now, but if that plunge on Movewithetimes is anything to go by, then all academic.
A Toi Phil 40’s
Azzuri 16’s
Regal Encore 28’sI’ll take bigger prices if I can.
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