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2 beautiful, beautiful trends races. Strong trends and a good history of dishing out winners.
Unfortunately the Poulains is proving difficult this year, suggesting a bad crop of 3yos. Glaswegian is the closest possible pick, but the major trial, the Prix de Fontainebleau, was a slowly-run messy race and I’m not sure how reliable the form is. Strictly speaking though, he’s a perfect fit and comes through every trend with flying colours. He’s even drawn nicely. There’s just a big group of horses behind him that all break just 1 trend. Salto is a much speedier bred horse and deserves a lot of respect. He finished 6th in the Fontainebleau but was just 1 1/2L behind the winner. He finished 2nd behind Roderic O’Connor in the Criterium International.
Modern History, trained by Fabre, beat Glaswegian 2 outings ago, but didn’t finish 1st or 2nd as a 2yo. He also didn’t run at Longchamp or in Dubai last time out, something 14 of the last 16 winners did – the 2 exceptions being British-trained runners. He’s also drawn on the outside to boot, in 13. It’s questionable why he didn’t run in the Fontainebleau.
There’s a small group of horses that all break 1 trend. It’s not a race I particularly want to commit to in a strong way. I’d be surprised if any of these evolved into Prix du Jockey Club or Arc contenders, bar possibly Modern History.
15 of the last 16 winners had had a prep – this suggests Wootton Bassett has zero chance of winning. He’s also been given a horrible draw in 14. At 7/4 he’s absolutely a lay.
There’s not a huge amount of horses that have attempted to win the race without a prep, but the names are big – Poet’s Voice, Thewayyouare, Rio de la Plata, Excellent Art, Brave Tin Soldier, Dijeer and Byron amongst a few others. Vettori managed to win in 1995 without the aid of a prep, but they’re 0-1-14 since.
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The Pouliches is a tad harder – Helleborine and Golden Lilac are the 2 picks. Unfortunately Golden Lilac does fall down on the breeding trend, but that’s not something that worries me since she showed a smart turn of foot to win the Prix la Grotte (6 winners, 5 placed and 4 unplaced in the last 15 runnings) and is closely related to Frankel. Her dam also finished 2nd in this race and won the Prix Moulin over CD. She’s bred by Gestut Ammerland, breeder of last year’s Poulain and Prix du Jockey Club winner, Lope de Vega, as well as Hurricane Run. Whatever happens, a truly mouth-watering clash between herself and Galikova looks like taking place in the Prix de Diane.
I’m out to get Helleborine and have been since last year. She’s a mid-May foal and although fillies aren’t affected so much by their foaling dates, I’m still looking to get her. Her form’s really not working out either. I’m also sick and tired of Abdulla in France, the decisions he gets are ridiculous. Backing Liliside last year still hurts.
Glaswegian’s 10/1, Salto 12/1 and Golden Lilac a lovely 7/2. A RFC with Helleborine is also something I’ll be looking at.
Zarkava,
I’m with you on this one; two singles and a double on Glaswegian and Golden Lilac.
Thank you, Zarkava .. Paul H is really upbeat about Wooton Bassett. I hope it flies in for him but no, this one’s not for me, either.
WB looks a different class to the rest – Fahey’s decision to miss HQ will look shrewd when he bolts in tomorrow.
Agree about being trends races [must be, because I did well with the races last year, albeit losing with that disqualification] but haven’t had time to look at the races this year. Whenever I get a French winner they always get disqualified, though.
GOLDEN LILAC for me in 1000 am not betting in 2000 race
Any thoughts on other races in France i like PRIAIRE STAR and
INXILE in the big sprint raceGolden Lilac – best 3 year old filly I have seen this year. Wonderful performance!
Come on the Glaswegian!
Darren, hope you get the treble up!
If Mordin’s fractional timing is correct then Golden Lilac vs Galikova will be an amazing race.
GOLDEN LILAC for me in 1000 am not betting in 2000 race
Any thoughts on other races in France i like PRIAIRE STAR and
INXILE in the big sprint raceVery well done.
Annoying that The Tin Horse was the one to do it as he was 3rd on my shortlist and strictly speaking 2nd if you were applying the trends adherantly. His stout breeding put me off, a decision which in hindsight was rather silly as he debuted over 5f.
Golden Lilac was extremely impressive but I’d like to watch again. They went no pace, but the Prix de Diane should be a very good race.
I warned you all about the lack of a prep harming Wootton’s chances and had a bad draw to boot. This is turning into an extremely profitable trend as that’s 16 runners that have failed since 1996.
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GOLDEN LILAC for me in 1000 am not betting in 2000 race
Any thoughts on other races in France i like PRIAIRE STAR and
INXILE in the big sprint raceVery well done.
Annoying that The Tin Horse was the one to do it as he was 3rd on my shortlist and strictly speaking 2nd if you were applying the trends adherantly. His stout breeding put me off, a decision which in hindsight was rather silly as he debuted over 5f.
Golden Lilac was extremely impressive but I’d like to watch again. They went no pace, but the Prix de Diane should be a very good race.
I warned you all about the lack of a prep harming Wootton’s chances and had a bad draw to boot. This is turning into an extremely profitable trend as that’s 16 runners that have failed since 1996.
Not all horses need a prep mate, if the trainer can trust he has the horse right on the day then it’s fine.
I do recall Richard Fahey saying "He’s done unbelievable bits of work at home, we couldn’t be happier"
Thank you Zark and BB for your comments
Zarkava how far can Golden Lilac stay could she stay a 1m4 or is that to far for her.
And how comes the cameras for the 5f sprint races at Longchamp are the worst in history. when watching on tv you get a side on view it is shocking.
Because the course is in the middle of the track and hardly used.
She’ll stay 10 1/2f, I’ll have a look later on about the 12.
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