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Re: trying to quantify Frankel’s performance in the Guineas:
The formbook must have other examples of similar seemingly-imperious ‘pillar-to-post’ victories in G1 races. So digging out the subsequent runs of these horses may prove a worthwhile piece of research
Were they generally flattered by such catch-the-eye-front-running?
Don’t know them all off the top off my head. I think Troy’s Timefigure is the highest ever, he got a 145 for the Derby. Dayjur’s Nunthorpe was 142, Celtic Swing’s RP Trophy 138 and Harbinger’s KG 135.
The formbook must have other examples of similar seemingly-imperious ‘pillar-to-post’ victories in G1 races. So digging out the subsequent runs of these horses may prove a worthwhile piece of research
Were they generally flattered by such catch-the-eye-front-running?
I’d say Cape Blanco’s pillar to post in last years Irish Champion would be a good example. Definitely flattered by the 130 he received that day, if his three subsequent runs are anything to go by.
Timeform have changed the methods to try to paper over the chasm like cracks, never replaced staff of the quality of Dick
and introduced daft things such a race standardisation which tends to give Listed class Derby winners (who never win again) ratings in the 120s instead of the 105’s.
Must admit I am highly sceptical of Race standardisation for this reason. Did Timeform gave Sole Power his rating after the Nunthorpe because they genuinely thought he was that good, or because ‘he had run in a race called the Nunthorpe and horse that usually finish 1st, 2nd , 3rd in the Nunthorpe are usually rated x,y,x…’?
Re: trying to quantify Frankel’s performance in the Guineas:
The formbook must have other examples of similar seemingly-imperious ‘pillar-to-post’ victories in G1 races. So digging out the subsequent runs of these horses may prove a worthwhile piece of research
Were they generally flattered by such catch-the-eye-front-running?
Aren’t many front-runners flattered purely because they were allowed to go a slowish pace and then kick for home? Taking their rivals unaware.
In Frankel’s case he went off at too fast a pace. That pace should have suited the other runners more than it did himself. Yet nothing got near him. Isn’t Frankel value for more than the distances indicate? Not less.Value Is EverythingIn Frankel’s case he went off at too fast a pace. That pace should have suited the other runners more than it did himself. Yet nothing got near him. Isn’t Frankel value for more than the distances indicate? Not less.
Having no idea what the sectionals were, I’ll take your word for it that he went "too fast a pace" in the early stages
As for "value for more than the distance indicates" well that is supposition which can’t be quantified until those behind run again (and again) so compiling some collateral form with which to re-evaluate the hypothetical 142 which, admittedly, is immediately rendered somewhat less hypothetical by the 136 timefigure
If pushed I’d venture that the form rating will settle at or just shy of the time rating, come season’s end
Had everything in his favour this time, and for every second of the 8f roll he was in his heaven
Under such conditions one would expect a front-runner making all to return a timefigure on a par with form, as there are no pace and shape considerations from the field to complicate, effect or moderate time performance
IMHO
Don’t know them all off the top off my head. I think Troy’s Timefigure is the highest ever, he got a 145 for the Derby. Dayjur’s Nunthorpe was 142, Celtic Swing’s RP Trophy 138 and Harbinger’s KG 135.
Thanks for those
The roll-call of Timeform’s top rated is well-known to all: Sea-Bird, Brigadier Gerard..etc etc
To the best of my knowledge the top timefigures have never been made available to the racing public-at-large. Why is this?
Any chance of an exhaustive list down to say 130?
It would also be nice to know the best timefigures attained by Sea-Bird, Brigadier Gerard…etc etc
But that may be too much to ask…
Had everything in his favour this time, and for every second of the 8f roll he was in his heaven
Under such conditions one would expect a front-runner making all to return a timefigure on a par with form, as there are no pace and shape considerations from the field to complicate, effect or moderate time performance
IMHO
Everything in his favour?
Apart from Queally going too fast. (That is no criticism of Queally, had Frankel been restrained, he may have pulled too hard and not got home).
However, when a horse goes off at a pace normally too quick for the distance; it usually slows dramatically in the final furlong or so. Therefore, there are "pace and shape considerations" to complicate things.
So I disagree Drone, I would not expect this front-runner (in this particular race) to return a timefigure on a par with form; considering the early speed.
Given an even pace, there is every reason to believe Frankel would have produced an even better performance.
Though as far as the future is concerned, you are right Drone, it’s quite possible Frankel will need the same ground and front-running tactics to produce his best. It is also possible any pacemaker (spoiler) could lessen Frankel’s chance.Value Is EverythingThat pace should have suited the other runners more than it did himself.
Should’ve…but clearly didn’t.
That pace should have suited the other runners more than it did himself.
Should’ve…but clearly didn’t.
Clearly? Are you sure about that Corm?
It is my opinion it did suit Native Khan and (in particular) Dubawi Gold better than Frankel. Had it been an even pace Frankel would have won by further.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
Re: trying to quantify Frankel’s performance in the Guineas:
The formbook must have other examples of similar seemingly-imperious ‘pillar-to-post’ victories in G1 races. So digging out the subsequent runs of these horses may prove a worthwhile piece of research
Were they generally flattered by such catch-the-eye-front-running?
Drone
You won’t find many gp1 instances, as few of these races are won in such fashion, though as others have pointed out, Cape Blanco and Hawk Wing would be 2 examples, (Neither reproduced their inflated rating since, though HW only ran once afterwards).
There was discussion of this situation on TRF a while back regarding Cumin and Cav Okay (real time – with much the same results), though my poor IT skills along with the limited search facility only unearthed the thread on the former.
http://www.theracingforum.co.uk/horse-racing-forum/horse-racing/cumin-t12791.html?hilit=andrew%20beyer&start=39I think we’ll have to agree to disagree GT or we’ll be at it for ever!
That idea of Timeform publishing a list of the all-time top timefigures is a good one. That’d surely be a good PR/marketing idea DJ? It’d be really interesting to see it.
Drone/Corm
I’ll see what I can do. Should be fun watching us get abuse for work that was done 30 years ago!!!
I think we’ll have to agree to disagree GT or we’ll be at it for ever!
I’m a stayer.
Value Is EverythingRe: trying to quantify Frankel’s performance in the Guineas:
The formbook must have other examples of similar seemingly-imperious ‘pillar-to-post’ victories in G1 races. So digging out the subsequent runs of these horses may prove a worthwhile piece of research
Were they generally flattered by such catch-the-eye-front-running?
Drone
You won’t find many gp1 instances, as few of these races are won in such fashion, though as others have pointed out, Cape Blanco and Hawk Wing would be 2 examples, (Neither reproduced their inflated rating since, though HW only ran once afterwards).
There was discussion of this situation on TRF a while back regarding Cumin and Cav Okay (real time – with much the same results), though my poor IT skills along with the limited search facility only unearthed the thread on the former.Bit early to be writing off Cape Blanco.
After his Irish Champion success (10f good), he ran on very soft ground at 12f. This year he ran on Tapeta in the World Cup. So valid excuses. Granted, disappointed first start back in Europe on good ground (11f). But it’s still early days.It must have been very difficult to rate Cape Blanco on that Irish Champion win. Both Rip Van Winkle and Twice Over well below form, Beethoven and Sea Lord possibly best at a mile and Famous Name running no sort of race. Presumably the rating is based on time, as it was a truly run race.
130 for a 5 1/2 length victory in what is usually one of The Best 10 furlong races of the season; does not suggest at first glance an inflated rating. Time will tell. Beethoven did frank the form to some extent by going on to win the Derby. The Qatar Derby over the same 10f distance.
Sorry to disappoint you Reet, but even if Cape Blanco’s master rating of 130 is "inflated"; it does not affect Harbinger. As Cape Blanco was rated on running to a much lower rating at Ascot.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
Ginger
I’m aware that Cape Blanco ran a lower rating in the KG (hardly surprising, as he was already overrated for beating trees in the Irish Derby): I’m also aware that Timeform used him as part of the justification for overrating Harbinger’s KG.
You carry on making excuses for the horse, and I’ll carry on betting against him, eh?
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