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Before I start I’m not trying to crab the performance in any way. It was scintillating. You knew after two furlongs, or perhaps less, that you were witnessing something special (whatever happened in the other six), I found myself unconsciously saying a four letter word beginning with f as he strode away from them into a ten length lead.
BUT –
I’m pretty amazed that Timeform have given him a provisional rating of 142.
First – the winning distance. Officially given as 6 lengths, to my eye at first viewing it was 5 tops. I’ve looked at the footage and freezed the frame as they crossed the line and at that time I can’t have the distance as more than 5 lengths. I’m not sure how they calculate the winning distance (is it just the judge’s eye or from the finishing strip, based on times?) but I think they have it wrong in this instance. Have a look, freeze it on Youtube and take a measure.
Timeform have then taken the view that the performance under-emphasised Frankel’s superiority by two lengths. I don’t get that at all.
I used to do quite a bit of handicapping in the distant past and the only time I’d add on an allowance was when there was something palpable, such as a horse being baulked or winning head in chest. You were guessing a bit but it helped compensate for what seemed an apparently obvious case of the horse being better than the bare form.
Yesterday Frankel wasn’t baulked and he was ridden relatively vigorously to keep going last two furlongs (only eased last 30/50 yards). I strongly think that assessing Frankel as worth two additional lengths is simply guessing. There is no hard evidence (and hard evidence should be what Timeform are about, rate them on what you see and what they do on the clock).
Yesterday Frankel was 5 lengths superior to Dubawi Gold and that is what he needs to be rated IMO. 12/13 lbs. That makes it (depending on where you rate Dubawi Gold and I’d have him ca. 122 at the minute) a ca. 135 performance yesterday. (I appreciate Dubawi Gold and Native Khan may be rated a bit low at that and if that’s apparent after another run or two then raise the overall rating of yesterday’s race, but on the evidence to date it’d be hard to justify that at the minute.)
But what a 135 performance it was, spectacular and amazing, one that will go down with the likes of Arazi’s Breeders Cup win and Zenyatta’s glorious failure last year, as unforgettable moments of pure racing theatre at it’s most thrilling.
Awesome performance but sounds rather high as I don’t think this year’s 3yo’s are that hot.
- Total Posts 17716
I think its impossible to say to be honest. Yesterdays race is nigh on impossible to rate as everything was out of their comfort zone after three furlongs. The Godolphin horse tried to go after Frankel and couldn’t get within half a dozen lengths and the second and third came from the rear as it was effectively a mile sprint.Take Frankel out of that race and I think you’d get a completely different race.
How can you put a number on it is Frankel’s superiority over Dubai Gold only six lengths? It clearly isn’t.
For what its worth I give Frankel 131 but with a plus but its actually a pretty impossible race to rate in pounds and lengths. The last horse home gets a rating of 6.
Time will tell just how good Frankel is.
I can understand Timeform giving him a huge rating but it has to have a big question mark after it.
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There are so many aspects to a perfomance like that from Frankel yesterday that are hard to quantify it’s almost impossible to come up with a rating people will agree with.
The one thing that is patently clear is that Frankel is so far clear of the rest we will only ever be guessing for accuracy. People will be inspired to guesstimate wildly as Frankel has so much in hand. Did he break hearts? Did some horses chasing just give up? Was Casamento ridden by a demented fool? Did Frankel have anything left to give? Would he have won further ridden more patiently? Is Dubawi Gold 12l better than most of that field? How do you quantify all that and so many other factors? Surely you cannot assess the race on stone cold face value terms?
One thing is certain. This was no Hawk Wing performance. Frankel has proven time and again that he can demolish whatever is put in front of him. Hawk Wing really only ever did that once. Whatever scars are left on Frankel after yesterday’s run just try and work out how much pain some of the chasers must be in right now. The pair that got closest were held up on the bridle throughout. Native Khan and Dubawi Gold were best ridden in the race for mine. Some of the other jockeys were rowing the boat from a very long way out in an attempt to chase the leader. Frankie should give the game away if that’s how he’s going to ride Gr1 horses.
At 6am this morning I was producing my speed figures for this race and Frankel was awarded a rating of
120
.
Using the new scale WFA chart, you would add 10lbs. WFA to this figure and you get 120+10 lbs =
130
.
A rating of 142 at this time of year lies in the realms of fantasy…
Ratings: http://tinyurl.com/3h5zupw
(Excel.xls)
In the blog they have on the Betfair site the reason given for the rating of 142 is that he was clear for such a long way that their guy at the course gave him an extra two lengths or five pounds. The actual rating
earned
was 137. So this seems the opinion of one employee. On reflection and obviously we’ll have to see how Frankel runs in the future, I doubt the rating will stand.
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Imperious performance though it was, a horse that gets an unchallenged lead is often overrated (particularly by Timeform), and as with such as Hawk Wing and Cape Blanco, Frankel is unlikely ever to reproduce a similarly rated performance.
That’s not to say he isn’t a very high class colt, and he should win plenty more races, but whereas anything above a 135 was a very special achievement at one time, they now seem to conferred like confetti.Imperious performance though it was, a horse that gets an unchallenged lead is often overrated (particularly by Timeform), and as with such as Hawk Wing and Cape Blanco
Agreed. I think there were runours of 140+ about Hawk Wing’s Lockinge at one point. But it was obvious that Where or When wasn’t the same animal as a 4yo so the form was downgraded. I would be very surprised if 142 ends up being his true rating come seasons end.
At 6am this morning I was producing my speed figures for this race and Frankel was awarded a rating of
120
.
Using the new scale WFA chart, you would add 10lbs. WFA to this figure and you get 120+10 lbs =
130
.
A rating of 142 at this time of year lies in the realms of fantasy…
Ratings: http://tinyurl.com/3h5zupw
(Excel.xls)
BB,
Are your ratings on the same scale as Timeform or are we talking about c and f for temperature?
Value Is EverythingTimeform work on a rating system that is 15lbs + to that of the BHA Handicapper.
My ratings are are similar to that produced by Top Speed without adding WFA and I use my own lbs. per length variant figures for every distance on all courses.
Imperious performance though it was, a horse that gets an unchallenged lead is often overrated (particularly by Timeform), and as with such as Hawk Wing and Cape Blanco
Agreed. I think there were runours of 140+ about Hawk Wing’s Lockinge at one point. But it was obvious that Where or When wasn’t the same animal as a 4yo so the form was downgraded. I would be very surprised if 142 ends up being his true rating come seasons end.
Hawk Wing 140 was a
provisional
rating. Everything has to have a provisional rating until the form has worked out. This 142 is a provisional rating.
Hawk Wing was injured after the Lockinge so could not show what he could do. But those finishing behind him that day made it evident the provisional 140 was too much. Therefore, his Racehorses Of 2003 rating was 136.
I wish people would understand that (with the benefit of form figures produced after the Lockinge), with Where Or When disappointing etc;
Timeform rate Hawk Wing at 136
.
Time will tell what Timeform rate Frankel after the year has ended.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
A rating of 142 at this time of year lies in the realms of fantasy
And it could be similarly said that a rating of 130 just lacks imagination and is in the realms of mean spirited. Given your method of ratings what’s you highest mile figure for a 3yo in the last 5-10 years?
- Total Posts 17716
Imperious performance though it was, a horse that gets an unchallenged lead is often overrated (particularly by Timeform), and as with such as Hawk Wing and Cape Blanco, Frankel is unlikely ever to reproduce a similarly rated performance.
.I wouldn’t say Frankel was given an "uncontested" lead just that nothing could go anything like the speed he could. You would’ve needed Dayjur to give him a lead yesterday and quite seriously he’d have probably struggled.
Hawk Wing was injured after the Lockinge so could not show what he could do. But those finishing behind him that day made it evident the provisional 140 was too much. Therefore, his Racehorses Of 2003 rating was 136.
I wish people would understand that (with the benefit of form figures produced after the Lockinge), with Where Or When disappointing etc;
Timeform rate Hawk Wing at 136
.
Time will tell what Timeform rate Frankel after the year has ended.
I think Dubawi Gold and Native Khan were both very flattered by yesterday’s race, mainly due to the fact that they both had the advantage of already having a run in them. It will be interesting to see if they can uphold their ratings. I doubt it somehow.
In the blog they have on the Betfair site the reason given for the rating of 142 is that he was clear for such a long way that their guy at the course gave him an extra two lengths or five pounds. The actual rating
earned
was 137. So this seems the opinion of one employee. On reflection and obviously we’ll have to see how Frankel runs in the future, I doubt the rating will stand.
I would agree with 137. 142 makes Timeform look like a bunch of silly schoolgirls screaming about a Justin Bieber lookalike. It’s a ridiculous piece of guesswork that just discredits them.
In the blog they have on the Betfair site the reason given for the rating of 142 is that he was clear for such a long way that their guy at the course gave him an extra two lengths or five pounds. The actual rating
earned
was 137. So this seems the opinion of one employee. On reflection and obviously we’ll have to see how Frankel runs in the future, I doubt the rating will stand.
I would agree with 137. 142 makes Timeform look like a bunch of silly schoolgirls screaming about a Justin Bieber lookalike. It’s a ridiculous piece of guesswork that just discredits them.
Why is 142 so silly?
All they have done is rate Frankel as a 2 lengths better horse than the 6 lengths he won by (2 lengths better than a rating of 137) at the finishing line. Considering he was many more than 6 lengths ahead of his field before the pace eventually told; it is not "silly" to rate the horse as an 8 lenghth winner.
You can say they are wrong, fine. But to call it is "silly" without explaining why it is "silly", is in itself silly. You call it "guesswork" and "rediculous", yet don’t tell us why? That…. well you see where I am going with this.
To be honest, before I sat down to work the race out myself, I thought 142 was too much, but when looking at the form it is at least 140 (imo).
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
Hawk Wing 140 was a
provisional
rating. Everything has to have a provisional rating until the form has worked out. This 142 is a provisional rating.
Hawk Wing was injured after the Lockinge so could not show what he could do. But those finishing behind him that day made it evident the provisional 140 was too much. Therefore, his Racehorses Of 2003 rating was 136.
I wish people would understand that (with the benefit of form figures produced after the Lockinge), with Where Or When disappointing etc;
Timeform rate Hawk Wing at 136
.
Time will tell what Timeform rate Frankel after the year has ended.
Small comfort to the subscribers who back their overrated horses in the meanwhile, eh Ginge?
Fwiw, yesterday Cape Blanco added further query to the 142? awarded for Harbinger’s King George, also.
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