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If you are value betting it’s essential you get in the habit of producing your own odds-line. I do so automatically for every horse so I know what price does and doesn’t represent value straight away. In order to try to go through this in detail I will post up one race each day or when there is a qualifying race but ONLY for Class4 races. The most consistent and profitable results actually come in higher class races. Any ratings worth their salt will produce their best results in higher class races. If there is no Class4 handicap on the day then an alternative is any qualifying class handicap at Wolverhampton. If there is none there then there is no bet that day – patience, discipline and selectivity are important attributes for value punters and for this exercise.
However, although Class4 handicap races for me are not quite as profitable as their higher class counterparts they are still profitable and more common through the week. Value betting is something that most ‘gamblers’ can’t psychologically handle. The reason is that longer than anticipated losing spells shake confidence, doubt creeps in and they start trying to second guess themselves or covering a bet with another in the race, have throwaway bets with no thought to the shape of the race or value etc etc. The key is once you have found an approach and strategy that works is to start getting out of the mindset of looking at winners and into the realms of profitabiliy and only viewing/reviewing results on a monthly basis.
I won’t post up ALL the Class4 races so I will have to make sure I pick what I consider to be the ‘strongest’ contender from one race each day which goes against systematic betting somewhat as you should really just follow them all without too much emotion or judgement outside the original system rules. However, a bit of flexibility, judgement and using sensible filters should hopefully see them produce a profit by the end of April.
What I will do is record results both at B.O.G using the best price available at time of posting and I won’t always take the higher price but as I usually recommend with the next highest odds available with at least 2 BOG bookies. I will also track them at BFSP less 5% commission and we will see how they go. If the selection doesn’t win then around 80% of the time the winner ‘should’ come from the Top6 and close to 60% of the time from the Top3 such is the overall consistency of the ratings although they may be slightly lower than those percentages at this lower class level and as there is only one race being cherry-picked each day. However, for my rules I will simply be focusing on whichever of the Top2 on the ratings represents the best value using my own ratings and odds-line/estimate.
If you follow them with cold, hard cash I suggest you do so for small stakes. The better ROI will come from win only which is what I will track but those who have problems with approx. 1 in 6 winners could go the more cautious each-way route.
SNOW DANCER in the 5.20 at Doncaster is 2nd on my ratings with an estimated 11% chance of victory. Abergavenny is slightly higher in the ratings but not ‘value’ and also appears after a long absence whereas Snow Dancer is coming off a CB (Career Best) speed figure last time on my speed figures, is strong on other form and speed indicators and is a distance winner. To me he looks a great value bet.
Doncaster 5.20 SNOW DANCER 1pt win @ 16/1 (Bet365/Hills)
Snow Dancer a fair 2nd rewarding those who went each-way and hope some of you did. SD didn’t get a clear passage at key stage and winner got first run but ratings pretty on the mark. Nailed the combo forecast for £50 but narrowly missed out on a potentially very decent tricast combo
For the sake of this exercise though…
Wins 0
Runs 1
S/R 0%
ROI -100%Snow Dancer a fair 2nd rewarding those who went each-way and hope some of you did. SD didn’t get a clear passage at key stage and winner got first run but ratings pretty on the mark. Nailed the combo forecast for £50 but narrowly missed out on a potentially very decent tricast combo
For the sake of this exercise though…
Wins 0
Runs 1
S/R 0%
ROI -100%Excellent analysis, Formbet…pity you recommended a win bet but I expect most people went EW.
Incidentally, I like your tag-line "Ratings + Systems = Profit"…
couldn’t agree more!Powered by Linux
Yes although technically I’m just providing the horse and as I said it’s up to the individual how they play them. I know long term that win only will provide the highest ROI but not everyone has the stomach for the losing runs.
I will record results for both WIN BOG (best odds guaranteed), EW BOG and WIN BSP (less 5% comm) so we can compare the various returns.
Today’s bet is CARA’S REQUEST in the 3.20 at Doncaster. The big problem here is his record first time out but I think to a large extent that is why we are getting 12/1. It is a concern but overall his record is fairly consistent and he is strong on my overall Master Speed Rating also so I’ll take a chance that he can blaze out and hold on as he looked progressive in the 2nd-half of last year and could hold a class advantage. There are potential forecast and tricast opps in the race and again I would expect the winner or placed runners to come from the top6 and hopefully top3 of the main FBR rating.
Doncaster 3.20 CARA’S REQUEST @ 12/1 (Bet365/Hills)
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By working a "real" price of each horse, is there an oppotunity to back & lay if that’s your mind set?
Concentrating on the top 5 on your tissue (the ones with the best chance), anyting with a positive variance of >5% become a bet. I would suggest anything bigger than 11/2 would be EW as it might not be the best horse in the race but is value to return a small profit if placed.
Then anything in the top 3 in the betting that has a 5% below the "real" price becomes a win lay.
This does mean more action and possible multiple bets in each race but would it improve profitability? Just a thought.
Thanks for the feedback…it’s certainly an interesting angle…I would have to look into it although just because a horse may represent poor value on the odds-line doesn’t mean it is a lay or has less chance of winning than others rated highly in the race and the type of races I am playing in the average odds to lay would be higher than ideal and outside my own comfort zone but I can see where you are coming from.
I prefer to concentrate on the back side of things and a more selective approach myself and would have to look into it in detail to check the historical data but for now I am just trying to keep it simple. I know people may prefer to go each-way on a lot of these and some may even prefer to dutch or win/cover bet with a couple but for me I can handle losing runs and I do know the better long-term ROI comes from win only.
The only problem I have at the moment is all my stats are based on races from Class4 and higher from ALL races so by being more selective with just one Class4 race like this then losing runs could be magnified but as I’ve said it’s more about the patient, disciplined and selective approach for this exercise but I am recording all the qualifying Top6 and will crunch their data at the end of the month.
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Trappy today. I am trying to pick races where there is the best value and a decent sized field for those wishing to play each-way. The 4.40 has CAPE ROYAL top-rated, the CD winner is relatively fit and has some fairly strong stats but mainly because he is overpriced in relation to his chances of winning by quite some way. The Top3 combined should produce the winner 35% of the time and Efistorm looks the main danger with some value tricast options in there as well utilising perhaps Cape Royal with Efistorm, Even Bolder and Equuleus Pictor.
Windsor 4.40 CAPE ROYAL
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There was no qualifying Class4 contender yesterday or today but there is a corker in a Class3 handicap in the 3.10 at Beverley so I will put that one up. BREATHLESS KISS is the only one of the Top6 with a recent run under her belt so could hold a fitness advantage over a lot of these. She won a couple of sprints on the all-weather this winter and drops in class after being out of her depth in a listed contest last time. She also ranks 1st on my MSR (Master Speed Rating), we are getting decent value on her and Kevin Ryan has started the season well so she goes in today as a Value Bet with 4 places up for grabs for those who prefer to play each way.Confessional is another who looks massively overpriced and worth including in Tricast combinations with the others on the Top6 for small stakes.
BEVERLEY 3.10 BREATHLESS KISS @ 17 (Bet365)
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There was no qualifying Class4 contender yesterday or today but there is a corker in a Class3 handicap in the 3.10 at Beverley so I will put that one up. BREATHLESS KISS is the only one of the Top6 with a recent run under her belt so could hold a fitness advantage over a lot of these. She won a couple of sprints on the all-weather this winter and drops in class after being out of her depth in a listed contest last time. She also ranks 1st on my MSR (Master Speed Rating), we are getting decent value on her and Kevin Ryan has started the season well so she goes in today as a Value Bet with 4 places up for grabs for those who prefer to play each way.Confessional is another who looks massively overpriced and worth including in Tricast combinations with the others on the Top6 for small stakes.
BEVERLEY 3.10 BREATHLESS KISS @ 17 (Bet365)
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Cheers for that got 18s with Stan James
Chepstow 4.50 KNIGHT IN PURPLE each-way @ 9 (Hills/Coral)
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A fairly tight Class 4 handicap hurdle seems a strange place to go on a day like today for a Value Bet but I do think joint top-rated runner
KNIGHT IN PURPLE
is overpriced at 8/1 with Hills and Coral. He beat Overturn last season and is a spring horse, the tongue-tie and visor appeared to assist him last time and he looks on a fair mark with the jock taking off a further 3lb. I would have him priced at around the 6/1 mark so it’s not ‘tremendous’ value as I usually insist on at least a 50% V% but he ranks 1st on the MSR (Master Speed Rating) and that was actually a CB (Career Best) speed figure he clocked last time which is not obvious on the bare form of that run, this is a slight drop in grade and I think he can reward an each-way interest.
Hope some of you were on today
Weekly Results Summary
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A good start..it’s very selective – I try to get one bet a day but sometimes I just can’t find anything tempting enough. Snow Dancer ran a good 2nd at 16/1, Breathless Kiss was a last-gasp winner at 16/1 and Knight In Purple a very easy winner at 8/1 today.
A lot of people will want to play e/w given the price but you can see the difference in ROI going win only and at BSP.
May have one for Sunday but more than likely next bet will be next week. Hope some of you are following..would be nice to get more feedback
Sunday’s value bet..
Wincanton 5.05 AINES DELIGHT @ 26
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Am waiting until the very last race of the day for the FREE Value bet today. It’s a Class4 conditionals’ handicap hurdle which and although Mayberry is the likelier winner her price is pretty skinny in relation to her chances. Not so AINES DELIGHT who is also ranked MSR1 and rated just 2% behind Mayberry so the best odds of 25/1 look standout. Her chances on form don’t look obvious but a couple of key things. First of all in her 3 novice hurdles she has taken a keen hold and not lasted how but Wincanton is a speed track generally speaking, the ground is decent and this fair flat performer has a better chance of lasting out the trip. It’s a bit of a chancy bet but we are rewarded with very decent odds and it’s a poor looking race overall.
Feedback has been very disappointing considering the ongoing success of your ratings based selections.
Its probably true to say that relatively few subscribers to this forum use ratings as a basis for their systems and selections.
This may be due, with the honourable exception of Nigel Taylor’s Formcast Ratings in the Daily Mail, to the poor quality and inconsistency of the free ratings available in the national press and online.
However, a combination of comprehensive ratings and a reliable betting forecast allied to the right choice of races can, IMHO, prove to be very profitable in the long run.
Hopefully, the fairly high number of ‘Views’ will be converted to ‘Feedback’ as time goes on.Powered by Linux
didnt expect to see you on here dave, been following your free value emails when they come threw, last one was a great 16/1 winner which helped after a diabolical aintree.
your ratings are in my impression the best on the net,and the way you are always improving things. the gruiss software with your site is a step in the right direction and i look forwrd to following you in the coming years.
you must have a very impressive database team who knows there stuff
there are hundreds of ratings on the net, which to my knowledge do not perform well which is why many people dont understand there use,i must admit the first day i got your ratings i just started at the screen thinking wtf, but after a few emails from you and a few great videos i was soon able to understand your ratings.
good luck in the future dave, i am watching
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