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class tells,
What is it that you are asking me to put myself in ‘harms way’ over?
I suspect it’s our old friend Van der Wheil.
I’ve been through all that ad nauseum and there is a thread available here on TRF Systems detailing my opinion on basic VDW.
Other than that there is a link on my profile to most of the relevant VDW letters with information that interested members can sort out for themselves.Hi Formath
you stay right here amongst friends. We will protect you mate.
Those damn know it all Bullies.And I have found that going around in circles just makes you dizzy in the head. Oh! where are my tablets?
byefrom
carlisleJust for a ittle light relief, my VDW take on the Diadem stakes.
Assessed under the basic headings to ‘narrow the field’ – first 5 in the betting f/c, £class, consistency evaluation 1, consistency evaluation 2, RPR, Top Speed.Stars
4 Balthazaar’s Gift, 3rd LTO -1.25L, ridden, headway, finished well
4 Silver Touch, 5th LTO -2.75L, ridden, stayed on same pace
3 Abraham Lincoln, Won LTO +1.75L, challenged, led, ran on wellMake of that what you will, at least it’s not after time
"Make of that what you will, at least it’s not after time"
Who was you having a little dig at then…. you can tell me.
class tells,
This message is absolutely confidential between you and me, maybe Carlisle and Dave Jay my peek in, but shhhh! The reason being that if word gets out I will suffer masses shovelled on me from a great height for my opprobrium, which can be most painful.
The problem with VDW is that many, most in fact, do not know the chronology involved having arrived on the scene late, and this is it (for the relevant letters). Recalling that it is almost 30 years ago that the first letter appeared in Sports Forum of the SCHB:
6th April 1978, VDW wrote; it’s not a system but one of many ways to narrow the field. Two factors, consistency and the first 5/6 in the betting forecast using 2 methods of evaluation and subject to other considerations.
3 months later:
6th June 1978, he provided winning percentages for consistency figures -111,121, 221, 321, 132, 313, 213, 214 etc.
a further 7 months:
11th January 1979, G Hall wrote he had ‘spotted the key’. EUREKA! The balloon went up everybody began to jump on the band wagon (Tony Peach publishes a Sports Forum Special and away we went – but note the KEY is there before your very eyes above).
another 2 months:
3rd March 1979, VDW wrote in reply to G Hall congratulating him on being able to read between the lines in spotting the KEY.
almost another 3 months:
24th May 1979, VDW wrote, last year I submitted an elementary method that many seem not to have understood.
another 3 months:
23rd August 1979, VDW wrote, emphasising GOOD (winning) consistent horses and also regarding checking runners performance in the final 2 furlongs of a race. He also provided a 2nd method of evaluation with a race example. For the first time showing rating figures as a way to judge the reliabilty of the consistency assessment.
over 2 years has passed:
29th May 1980, VDW wrote about rating class by prize money (the first mention after all this time?)
I’m losing track now:
March 1981, VDW, suggested, to confirm what the figures say it is necessary to study the form of all concerned taking particular note of the class in which they ran, the courses they ran on, the pace and going of the respective races, distances won or beaten by and most important how they performed in the later stages of each race.
Class Tells, the message is keep it simple and refer to the above and see how it goes. Take no notice of the crud on the main board (but I never said that of course – so stum).
everything in order and an order for everything ,roll on saturday thank you very much formath for your openess
somthing i noticed from the percentage wins next time out 111=33% if alot a movment of 3% for each placing of the horse lto i.e a win to a 2nd lto = 112=30% ,113=27% the horses places 2nd lto get 2% movement ie 121=31% ,movement 3rd lto get 1% ie 211= 32% not spot on but near enough it goes off near the other end of the scale
formath have had a wee go at the 4.40 warwick of the first 6 in betting 3 most consistant are atlantic coast,hawkbridge king,abstract folly with 7 using rpr and topspeed ac and hk are both top rated 92 rpr and ac top rated topspeed, ac also placed lto and good days since ran,in the top 3 positive weight movements -5lbs,which makes it top rated if adding on to its lto rpr rating, ok with postdata ,top 3 class=39 3rd best, apart from its 2nd lto itmaybe improving,73,67,84 only drawback that the other horses are moving down in class where its moving slightly up but being helped by 5lbs,its form figure chance 25%
class tells,
I have gone a little up market from you and gone for the class 3 at Wolverhampton (class 4 is the lowest I would consider opposite VDW).
The 4.40 Warwick on my quick check comes out – Atlantic Coast, Aphorism, Hawridge King.As for the 4.20 Wolverhampton, the VDW methodology in basic form using info mainly from the Daily Mail. Headings for the * chart being –
1st 6 in the betting forecast, consistency evaluation 1, consistency evaluation 2 and to confirm the consistency D.Mail Formcast, RPR:
1*__10*__10*__** – Inter Vision
4
5*___5*___5*__** – Tamagin
7
9*___6*___6*__** – Matsunosuke
13Inter Vision – LTO Chs +4lbs, 8/14 -4.5L, held up, some late headway, never a danger. Poor draw last Sat when going for hat-trick. Handles this surface.
Tamagin – LTO Nmk -1lb, 2/10 -2L, ridden, unable to quicken. Has run well on this surface over 7f. Speed may serve well from a low draw.
Matsunosuke – LTO Lei +2lbs, 3/11 -.25L, ridden inside fin furlong, ran on. Race needs to go right as comes from behind. AW debut so G?and that’s the simple version IMO
thought when vdw said you should use 2 methods of rating one on time one on weight ? dont get me wrong mail is the best are the rpr and mail the sort of the same? ps could,nt rate a maiden to turf is that a mistake aphorism 4.40 well it was today
class tells,
28th March 1981 in a Sports Forum Extra compilation VDW was quoted:
“To complete the working platform it is useful to have another measure giving some indication of the various horses chances in the present situation and which will assist in confirming other data. This can be time, handicap ratings, form ratings etc, but always keep in mind they are a guide. I use two sets of ratings which are compiled on different lines so that I may judge the reliability of the figures but this is not essential.”
Considering the above you are more or less correct in what you say.
On another matter, whilst I was checking my VDW cuttings I noticed the following which you may know about or if not it could be of interest to you as it deals with class:
18th April 1981, VDW wrote:
“The object of the exercise is to balance ability with form and there are many ways to cross check the methods as outlined. One is to take th five most consistent horses in the field and from these extract the three with the highest ability rating. To illustrate, letus have a look at the spring double, first the Lincoln. from the top of the handicap the five most consistent rates with ability ratings were:
(the columns are Ability, Total Last Three).
Bonol_________17___7___4th
Hrons Hollow___24__11___2nd
Saher_________23___9___WON
Glasgow Central 11___8
Raconteur______15__6
Border Brook____14__7As can be seen, the top three on ability from the five most consistent rates , proved a formidable trio and given other factors anyone not selecting Saher should start asking questions of themselves. Now the National:
Aldaniti_________23___4___WON
Martinstown_____28___11
Another Prospect 16___11
Royal Stuart_____11____7
Sebastion V_____15___10
Kylogue Lady____19____7
Royal Exile______37____8
Cheers__________11___7
Lord Gulliver______15___8
Pacify___________13___8
Sentaor Maclacury 19___11
Another Captain___16___6As can be seen the top three are Aldaniti, Martinstown and Royal Exile. Once again, given other factors, Aldaniti shouted at to be hammered.”
I knew I should never have started down this road on this thread as I am not a VDW guru or follower
having moved on in the three intervening decades. Just a thought re the above, you could consider using speed figures to replace the ability rating in races where there are few ability ratings, such as juveniles on the Flat.(Tony Peach publishes a Sports Forum Special and away we went – but note the KEY is there before your very eyes above).
Formath,
Can I ask if you are suggesting the "key" is based on the form figures? I ask because to my eye there are a couple of horses with better looking combinations in Baronet’s race. At least one of these is also in the forecast. How/why do you think Mr Hall decided Baronet was the selection? Up to this point the only time VDW had mentioned using other ratings was when he mentioned the Erin, although he did say all relevant horse were rated using two different methods.
Be Lucky
Mtoto44,
I am hesitant about replying to your queries as I have no desire to be involved in a prolonged debate regarding the VDW methodology. The reasons being that I have no interest in it at all nowadays and only posted on this thread to try and help Class Tells, who is.
Nevertheless, IMO the factor known as the ‘key’ is to do with form figures. Not to provide horse selections but as a way to consider races to assess.
Regarding the Erin Foods race example and the comment "Using two methods of rating all five horses….", IMO this means two methods of assessment, evaluation that is, and has nothing to do with rating figures.
Just a little more, from the Sports Forum, 24 May 79, headed "Dutchman states: ‘No magic Formula’.
It does not follow that a good thing always follows from the preliminary mechanical procedure, this can only be determined from a close study of form and associated aspects. However the mechanical procedure does isolate a narrow area that consistently produces winners. Something for nothing is a myth, a great deal of work has to go in also.
Ratings (this time indicating rating figures) are also part of a mechanical procedure and should be regarded as a guide and not the be all and end all."
The reasons being that I have no interest in it at all nowadays and only posted on this thread to try and help Class Tells, who is.
Formath,
Please accept my apologies, but it is an easy mistake to make that you may have been interested in VDW. After writing a book, going into some detail on your web page, and more than a few mentions of VDW on the threads you frequent.
Be Lucky
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