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Newc 2pm
CONCIERGE
Second run for new stable.
Campaigned in better company last year over five and six furlongs started the year over a mile in Doha.
Before that a comfortable winner here under Oisin Murphy in late 2018 over course and distance class 2.
Could be anything at this stage but interesting coming here so soon into new tenure.
This is a lower class race up against in form horses but could be better if fit from first run over 7 furlongs after a 64 day break and now going over best distance for new stable.Concierge 3rd @ 14/1 nck behind wasntexpectingthat and the winner.
I’m Happy with that start to the thread and looking forward to watching the race later.
I’m not advising or trying to tip winners here, just highlighting interesting runners and their chances of at least figuring in a race based on past form rather than current form which bookies and Fred Bloggs follow like sheep. which will put the emphasis on that elusive “value” wrung out of most betting areas.
Hopefully some forecast, win, each way, place and tricast and lay opportunities will be highlighted from time to time.
National Hunt offers similar opportunities so I will look for angles there too.Catterick
Yorkshire national
Kingswell Theatre
This top weight and serial stamina laden runner drops in class today.
Was even pulled out of a race in april due to unsuitable ground (good).
Was pulled up last time at Cheltenham normally a negatve but perhaps it was with this race in mind.
Usually partnered by young Schu. Jack Tudor an interesting booking.
Not all of these will get around today and provided time is not catching up KT might relish these conditions.Watched CONCIERGE needed the run. Runner up ran to form and winner was succeeding at the 23rd attempt and won readily under a good ride will be hard to peg back by the assessor. All three ran very well and in time will win better races.
Kingswell Theatre 50 plus lengths away at the end,the bare result tells no sort of tale.
Watched the race reply and he was prominent in 2nd placefrom the off for a long long way.
Racing TV cut the end off the race and their coverage ended at fence 16 bizarrely with Theatre still in second.
Handicapper will take some weight off and he will find a race.
While I can appreciate we have different ways of approaching the same basic problem of finding profitable methods to make our betting pay dividends the idea of using ‘form in the book over recent form’ for me is akin to catching a falling knife by the blade.Past performances can be used to assess the horses ‘usual’ grade one might expect to find them running in however for many & varied reasons things change and using such form in my opinion isn’t logical unless a clear sign can be pointed to that an upturn in fortunes is possible.
Best wishes with your enterprise and hopefully you will expand on your idea,look forward to reading more.
good luck to allHi Blackcountry Kid. Thank you for your comments.
I have been otherwise engaged and will pick this thread up again in due course.I do think that lifetime form can sometimes trump sexy recent form.
A horse, young or old can go a considerable length of time before the trainer refinds the key to making the horse click again.
It may even be that the trainer waits an age before finding the right opportunity.
I’m having a speculative dabble at the GN trial in Ireland on tuesday on
The Gatechecker E/W
Out Sam winHard Toffee
Out with the washing….
4th last.
Onwards and upwards.
Remains under than last winning mark here.Good luck with your quest, there is merit in both lines of approach but you have to discern if there is a significant reason a horse can return to that best. It depends on how long you look back over form also. Forgiving a run or two and playing some past form can return mighty dividends. Out of interest how long would you typically look back? I work on about a year worth of form, further back I have to make the assessment if a horse is still up to that level and if there is any recent suggestion it could still harbor that form. I like when a horse with good back form returns to peak form and proves well handicapped. Generally in high class races a horse will hold form for longer but a lot of handicappers can easily regress and never reach that form again.
If you’re a fan of old form, keep an eye on Para Mio, best form all achieved over 12f and this winter they have dropped him as short as 6f clearly chasing a new handicap mark.
Thank VTC.
Hi Tbracing.
To be honest it is a very broad spectrum with no particular criteria.
The horses form could go back ages for example or only a season or two.
It could encompass a drop in the OR or just a return to favoured track or ground conditions, a change in stable a return to last winning mark, reaplication of headgear.
Drop in class. Long lay off. Lots of horses are backed off the boards because they won last time out and lose, then are ignored next time out and win.
Just haven’t had time to look lately.Thank you for the heads up on Para Mio.
Concierge
Has had three more runs a 2bd 3rd at 10/1 & 9/1 and finally a win at Wolves @13/8 fav in a small field in typical style.
Looks still to have plenty in hand.Acolyte Dundalk 5.30
New stable
Has an absence of 1111 days to overcome, but a class or two above this field.
Places more often than not. 6f specialist. form figures on a varity of tracks from England to Dubai read
Flat placings: 317/23211524/17/
Might need the run of course but this claimer is a realistic starting level.
If retaining ability will be interesting going handicapping.Acolyte
Look forward to seeing this horse run in a decent handicap on turf or sand in the summer.
If returns sound this one will strike before too long.
13/14 last night in a quiet debut.Alighted
1430 Leopardstown
Good form to win bumper on debut for Joseph O’ Brian followed by smart second to Noel Meade’s Daly Tiger who went to race in better company.A year off course ended with a reappearance in December over much further. Second run last month again over further than ideal should ensure race fitness today in this big field maiden.
Up against other smart stables but could do better today than the bare recent runs suggest.
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