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Football: Are England a value bet to win Euro 2012?

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  • #20964
    Gingertipster
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    • Total Posts 28471

    Are England value to win Euro 2012?

    Seems to me other than Spain there isn’t another stand out team.
    Germany and Holland are (imo) the equal of England and have far worse Groups than us. The others aren’t as good as England. I think even with the Rooney problem we can get through the group stage. If both England and Spain win their Groups (or both runners-up) we wouldn’t play them until the Final (if one of the two were runner-up it would be Quarter-Final :shock: ). Italy, Croatia or Republic Of Ireland the alternative Quarter-Final opponents. We’d probably get Germany or Holland in the Semi whatever happens.

    Think we do ourselves down too much. Apart from the last World Cup it’s usually pens that put us out in the quarter/semi’s. Pens are all about confidence, and with Harry (hopefully) there to instil some back bone. Should help.

    Spain had an awful record, no confidence, before their first win. Now look at them.

    Not saying we’re favourites, but are we better or worse than 10% chance (9/1)? I think better.

    Bookies usually write us off a few months before the tournament before shortening prior to the start. I took 10’s a couple of days ago (sorry aftertiming). If as expected Harry becomes manager, I think England will shorten significantly again, and be able to lay some off.

    Value Is Everything
    #390799
    Eclipse First
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    • Total Posts 1569

    The trouble is the player’s mentality, they have little pride in playing for their country and get the rewards their lack of passion deserves. Coupled with an innate ability to choke when it really matters, their record of under-achievement would have tested Job.

    They made heavy weather of qualifying from a group you would have fancied all the other home nations to have had a reasonable chance if they had been so fortunate with the draw.

    There is no value in a losing bet at any price, unless you can lay it off to a blind optimist.

    #390806
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 28471

    The trouble is the player’s mentality, they have little pride in playing for their country and get the rewards their lack of passion deserves. Coupled with an innate ability to choke when it really matters, their record of under-achievement would have tested Job.

    They made heavy weather of qualifying from a group you would have fancied all the other home nations to have had a reasonable chance if they had been so fortunate with the draw.

    There is no value in a losing bet at any price, unless you can lay it off to a blind optimist.

    Didn’t England win their early matches before struggling to get over the finishing line when almost certain of qualifying anyway? I Hadn’t better respond to your somewhat naive "value" quip EF. Otherwise we’d be here all day again. :lol:

    Value Is Everything
    #390807
    thehorsesmouth
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    • Total Posts 5551

    "Eclipse First" wrote: There is no value in a losing bet at any price, unless you can lay it off to a blind optimist.

    Let’s say I offered you 4/1 about heads on the flip of a coin. Tails come up. Heads was still value regardless of the result.

    #390814
    Eclipse First
    Member
    • Total Posts 1569

    I would have thought "no bet" was the value personally. Rather like buying something in the sales because it seems cheap and then never wearing it.

    #390996
    sporting sam
    Participant
    • Total Posts 7731

    No.There will be an avalanche of cash for England at single figure prices in the weeks leading up to the Tournament and on the appointment of the next boss.
    Its called the "patriotic pound". It bears little or no relation to real chance and pays no attention to the facts which are, No Coach, No skipper and no major Tournament win since 1966.
    Even allowing for the law of averages, layers have been happy to take the risk for the best part of fifty years.
    Your get-out clause I suspect is your definition of value.
    Preparation far from ideal for these overpaid prima- donnas.

    #391033
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 28471

    No.There will be an avalanche of cash for England at single figure prices in the weeks leading up to the Tournament and on the appointment of the next boss.
    Its called the "patriotic pound". It bears little or no relation to real chance and pays no attention to the facts which are, No Coach, No skipper and no major Tournament win since 1966.

    Hate to tell you this SS, but Hurst, Charlton, Banks etc aren’t playing in 2012, so it’s a different team and should be treated as such. The only thing that should be taken in to account is pressure that builds up from the country not winning a trophy since 66. This time around few will be expecting much from this one and that might help. Spain were also in a similar situation before their winning spree.

    "No coach" is a plus. Look how McNeil turned around Sunderland. When Harry took over Spurs they were bottom of the league. Good managers often transform a team with immediate effect.

    Captains mean nothing, all they do is lead the singing and exchange banners. There needs to be Captains in the defence, mid-field and attack, doesn’t matter who the official one is.

    Value Is Everything
    #391036
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 28471

    Your get-out clause I suspect is your definition of value.

    What I mean by "value" is: In my opinion England stand a better than 10% chance of winning it, therefore are value at 9/1. ie Assuming level stakes, a punter needs a 10% stike rate to break even on his 9/1 bets. Therefore anything at top priced 9/1 should be backed if the punter believes it has a better than 10% chance of winning.

    The question is NOT "Do you think England will win Euro 2012"? It is obvious Spain have by far the best chance of winning.

    The question is "Are England a value bet to win Euro 2012?
    Or to put it another way:
    Do you believe England have a better or worse than 10% chance of winning Euro 2012?

    Value Is Everything
    #391065
    sberry
    Member
    • Total Posts 1801

    They are not value, the chance is less than 10%

    Consider the horse that has run 28 times at the right level but won only once, would you think single figure odds is a value back or a lay for it’s next attempt?

    Like Tim Henman being value but not winning once in 64 attempts and Andy Murray not winning once in 29 attempts.

    Some people will go through a lifetime not seing the national team win one of the big two or a brit winning a grand slam, the above is 1 in 121…

    The bookies laugh all the way to the bank every time one of these bets comes round, they will not begrudge paying out on the next time it comes in, they will consider that an investment.

    I know somebody who said he always lays these bets, don’t think he’s behind yet as he wasn’t doing it in 1966.

    But yes, they have as much chance as winning as Arsenal do this years champions league, so lump on.

    #391130
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 28471

    They are not value, the chance is less than 10%

    Consider the horse that has run 28 times at the right level but won only once, would you think single figure odds is a value back or a lay for it’s next attempt?

    Like Tim Henman being value but not winning once in 64 attempts and Andy Murray not winning once in 29 attempts.

    It’s not the same thing SBerry.

    Tim Henman is the same Tim Henman wherever he goes. The horse is the same horse wherever he goes.

    England is not the same England football team that it was in 1972, 84 or any other year. The players and manager are not the same and they’re not against the same players either.

    So where evaluating form of a football team: Other than one aspect of form ("confidence", which admittedly can be a big aspect) what has happened with different players and managers in the dim and distant past has no bearing on the future.

    Value Is Everything
    #391131
    Gingertipster
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    • Total Posts 28471

    I know somebody who said he always lays these bets, don’t think he’s behind yet as he wasn’t doing it in 1966.

    Then he’s a fool. How long have people been able to "lay" football matches? To lay the bet whatever the price might be, is stupid. I repeat, at 9/1 you only need a better than 1 in 10 strike rate. A punter can not just add the number of times a country has won a tournemant and divide by number of tournemants to evaluate whether 9/1 is a good or poor price. There are loads of things to evaluate before coming to a knowledgeable opinion. Not least how good the team (actually playing) is and how good their rivals are.

    No doubt your "somebody" layed Spain in 2008, when their record was so bad, no win in any tournament since 1964. :lol: Euro 2008 and World Cup 2010 winners.

    Value Is Everything
    #391253
    sberry
    Member
    • Total Posts 1801

    It is the same thing ginge, it is a similar equation with similar variables.

    A horse may be the same horse wherever it goes but it doesn’t always run to the same level, draw, going, distance, obstacles, luck in running, human error, weather, corruption, etc – and the same variables for all it’s opponents.

    Tennis players don’t always play to the same level, or in the same conditions, human error, etc, or to the same opponents and their variables.

    Same with football, many variables involved.

    If there is one thing in the equation that is constant or almost constant, you should pay close attention to that one thing.

    In the question you posed that one thing is that we don’t win it so your single figure odds are not value, this is where your value argument falls over – it is not actual value, only value in your mind, it is just an opinion or guess like everybody has.

    #391259
    sberry
    Member
    • Total Posts 1801

    Germany are your ‘value’ ginge.

    6 out of 11 finals, winning 3, outstanding major tournament record, settled team without strife or controvesy including prolific scorers, long standing manager, the most successful in german football history, having lost only once in the past 12 games and that in a pointless friendly, when playing the top teams they perform.

    It’s their turn, 11/8 to reach the final and 10/3 outright available, these odds should lengthen nearer the off due to the misguided patriotic pound shortening the England odds and because Germany are in the group of death, but after their first game, I would expect their odds to shorten.

    They’ve been there before and come back with the spoils, many times.

    #391767
    Getzippy
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1152

    England have got no chance, they are an ordinary team.

    50/1 to reach the final might be value. Might.

    Zip

    #403845
    Nathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 25496

    England have a better chance now Andy Carroll is starting to fire again. In top form the guy is unstoppable, just need Mr Hodgson to select him now………. :|

    Member since March 2008
    #403865
    sberry
    Member
    • Total Posts 1801

    :lol:

    England have a better chance because of Hodgson & Carroll – you’d have been sectioned if you’d said that a few months ago, now it’s only laughable.

    England have as much chance as English tennis players do of winning a major – ie, not in our lifetime.

    Stick with the class, it’s Germany’s.

    #403872
    Eclipse First
    Member
    • Total Posts 1569

    Might be worth doubling up on UK winning the Eurovision Song Contest.

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