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Comments from the RP analysis of last years race which the high numbers dominated –
"The perceived draw bias that emanated from the Coventry Stakes was confirmed, with those drawn stands’ side (low numbers) facing a tall order."
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Given what you’ve said then Reet, would you agree that she beat the 2006 Abbaye winner and the 2007 Nunthorpe runner up under his optimum conditions on Saturday?
Not really, DJ.
Haydock’s 5f, with no bends or undulations to break up the pace, has a standard time of 1 min. Longchamp’s (56.80) and Epsom’s (55.4) are considerably quicker, even with bends/undulations. Had the ground been faster at York, Desert Lord would probably have won the Nunthorpe (s/t 58.0s) rather than being 2nd.PC
From the 2006 Buckingham Palace analysis. RP online:
Although the stalls were spread across the track they wanted to race up the stands’ side again, and without exception this time. That said, there was surprisingly little incident, and a high draw was not the disadvantage one might have expected it to be,with horses drawn 28, 24 and 21 all in the first six.
Every year that I recall there has been the same speculation about the Royal Ascot draw, and almost every year a race pops up like this to prove it a myth.
This is possibly an agree to disagree scenario, but surely one race is an exception rather than the rule?
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PC
But, if it were a rule, there shouldn’t be any exceptions, and there are – year after year.
Possibly so, but i’d rather be backing what is likely to happen the majority of the time.
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PC
I think you’re missing the point a little?
What happens the majority of the time on Ascot’s straight course (far more often than any supposed draw bias) is that the winner will come from where-ever the best pace in the race is.
Check it out for as many years as you like; you will find that, no matter what the perceived draw bias is, it will come unstuck when faced with a better pace on a different section of the track.
If you still don’t believe me, maybe you’ll believe Kieren Fallon who has been known to win the odd race by understanding such matters. He once said, (Though of the Guineas’ mile, another straight track with a mythical and fluid bias), “I’m not concerned about the draw; where the pace is is far more important”.
Then again, you can always go with the crowd.
I’ve taken a look at Fleeting Spirit’s win at Haydock and it’s very difficult to crab her performance from a time perspective and have placed her on a rating of 124. That’s above the middling time ratings that have, by and large, been recorded by home-trained sprinters of late.
However, I’m intrigued by the times recorded in the Singapore sprint won, most recently, by Takeover Target. Admittedly over a distance a touch short of 6F but 1min 9 / sub-1minute 9, racing round a bend on a seemingly flat track. I don’t know what the current 6F record is at Goodwood but it used to be around the 1 min 10 mark. Sprinters much better than ours, lightning fast ground or some other reason?
The top Austrailian sprinters are probably just better than ours, in general.
After all, they breed about 18,000 thoroughbred foals a year, about the same as Britain (6000) and Ireland (12000) combined, but probably near enough half of theirs are bred to be sprinters. So, they’ve got a much bigger population of potential sprint champions than we or Ireland have.
Scallywag, the track at Kranji definitely wasn’t lightning fast. I walked it about an hour before the race and it was probably good to firm ground at best – officially good. There had been lots of rain (and I’m talking 12 hours of solid downpour) only 3/4 days before and even though it had drained well it was never going to be on the firm side.
They started half way down the back stretch and used the shorter bend into the straight so an emphasis on speed – horses like our own Lovelace just couldn’t get into it.
Drawn in stall 4 which looks okay. Captain Gerrard, Benbaun, Magnus all drawn within close enough proximity to give her a good toe through the race.
Dandy Man should give the far side a good tow too- I can see the filly going off fairly short in this field.
It’s difficult to know what is a good draw for Fleeting Spirit. Her style of running means she’s always going to need a bit of luck to come through horses. I’d agree that stall 4, around some fast horses, is OK, better than stall 1 or 15 anyway.
There’s a few in this race that I really don’t fancy, for various reasons. In order of how strongly I don’t fancy them: Kingsgate Native, Reverence, Captain Gerrard, Takeover Target. I wanted to find a reason to support Dandy Man, but unless stall 15 turns out to be a good draw, he’s got to be on the list as well.
Of the others, I do think Fleeting Spirit has every chance, a favourites chance. I’m not sure where any pace/draw bias will be, but if there’s no disadvantage running up the stands rail, I think Benbaun will run well. I also just have a feeling that Magnus will run a big race as well. It could just be a case of men against boys/girls with these Australian horses. I’ve burdened Magnus with my £10 each-way.
Very true Carvs, though with the draw as it is, I don’t think the filly is racing against a pace bias, as long as Captain Gerrard does take his chance, so for me, there’ll be no excuses if she’s beaten. Can’t say I’m too concerned about what price she starts to be honest!
It could just be a case of men against boys/girls with these Australian horses
No
Horses against pumped up steroid abusing freaks
As for Fleeting Spirit, I have few worries about draw/pace etc. When you think about the very classiest sprinters, they didnt require any help
It’s not men against boys/girls anymore for Magnus and Takeover Target.
Magnus is a chronic non-winner. And Takeover Target almost got beat by him in Singapore. Magnus races in Group 1 company but as a horse to be rated on top in a race and win he is Group 2 at best.
Your usual suspect sprinters of the past 2-3 years will be fighting out a different race to themselves.
Fleeting Spirit will win. And hey! Takeover Target is favourite down here. What a surprise!
Who likes 11 to 4 for the filly?
The intriguing aspect of this race is the time Takeover Target did in the Krisflyer. 68.8 seconds is damn fast for 6f with Magnus just a 1/2 length behind. The steroid story will probably keep both their odds respectable. I’d forgive Benbaum his last 2 runs, his form from last Autumn would give him chances but its unlikely he’s still improving and has to concede a lot of weight to the favourite. Dandyman looks a Group 2 horse at his best. Kingsgate Native will find it much tougher this year and he’s been off a long time. Captain Gerrard can be forgiven his Chantilly run owing to the ground but still has it all to proove at this level. The rest dont look good enough.
That leaves Fleeting Spirit. The Haydock form looks solid although not entirely complemented by Borderlescott yesterday. The weight concession, scope for improvement and Moore on board make her a worthy favourite. However the 2 battle hardened Aussie horses seem as good as ever if times are anything to go by and rate as live dangers, plus she has been slow from the stalls in her last 2 runs. I’d want 3/1.
I think this will be the coronation of a new sprinting queen. Noseda obviously believes he has a real star on his hands and unless Takeover Target can recover some early dash he won’t have the legs. None of the home contingent appeal and it may be worth having an E/W saver on the spanish horse.
I just can’t see the filly losing..
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