Finding 7% plus

[billion]

I rather felt SHOULD SYSTEMS IDENTIFY VFM thread was unintentially being hi-jacked.
(sorry to be part of that).
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On the subject of Favourites/Forecast Favourites/Horses at the shorter end of the market DOLUS has pointed out that A. Massey states when ALL favourites are backed the return is 93% of all original stakes.

DOLUS continues to say the hard bit is sorting out the ones to back in order to overcome the 7% loss and then to push on to make a profit.
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Firstly I am guessing if ALL favourites were backed and returned at starting prices. Well I think it is fair to say S.P’s can be beaten either by taking Betfair S.P. or early prices with best odds guaranteed.

The problem with “Best Odds” is proofing on forums such as this but I believe that is no reason to discount best odds . . . what matters most of all a) what forums think or b) the returns you as a punter knowing what you have achieved.

b) for me is what matters!
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Again we then return to the matter of how to rid ourselves of the bad favourites, be they forecast or S.P.

DOLUS has identified an old system: –
RPR + Topspeed + Postdata without any crosses (I think this is much about the sum total of it and unless you buy the “Post” every day cannot be worked from the web site.

Lesleyone (on the Massey site) claims RPR when combined with favouritism produces 55% win ratio.

DOLUS also says the old system does not produce many selections which I think is one of the problems with most of us punters we want too many selections and if I could get just one a day with 100% strike rate I would be one very happy (and rich) punter.

Knowing handicap races produce fewer “favourite” winners perhaps there is some logic to removing them from the selection list thus uping the strike rate and applying RPR and forecast favourites as a starting point.

Unless YOU have any better suggestions

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Saturday March 20

Non Handicap selections

RP Forecast Fav

RPR Top rated
=========================================================

Ffos Las 3.05 Hopeful Start 7/4 Tsp x

Lingfield 5.20 Deauville Post 10/11 Tsp x

Newcastle 2.15 Turbo Island 6/4 Tsp yes

Uttoxeter 5.35 Dragon’s Roost 2/1 Tsp yes

(Early prices taken from Odds Checker)

Overall I would say not a bad start and offers something to work with.

Billy's Outback Shack

[Pompete]

Hi Billion,

I’m a bit reluctant to post this as the circumstances are different to yours but you may find it helpful.

My circumstances were I was backing favourites on the All Weather to place and I was doing this to boost turnover in conjunction with backing Hurdlers win and place (at all prices) while using a VDW staking plan.

But the method I used to select the favourites to back was the following.

# For each horse in each race I noted the winning RPR (adjusted to 10st) in each of its last 6 races and then averaged these to produce a single figure. The purpose was to ‘create’ a rough and ready ‘Class Figure’.
# The favourites ‘Class Figure’ had to be within the top three for all the horses in the race.

I’m not going to say too much about it but – it worked for me. Whether it can used or adapted to produce selections for your needs I don’t know, my records only record whether the selection placed or not and the place price.

Using this as a method the selections for today (Hurdlers only) are:

1.30 U – Action Impact
3.05 F – Hopeful Start or Adams Island (whichever is favourite)
3.40 F – Mous Of Men
5.45 N – Too Cool To Fool

As always I should like to clearly state I only ever mess about with the gee-gees and systems and things so any one taking any notice of what I write does so at there own risk

[billion]

POMPETE

Who cares if it is the right or wrong place just as long we are all pulling in the same direction to find a few winners.

Your suggestion is certainly related to Favourite Winning Finding and are we not all messing around with the gee gees and should all know our own risk limitations.

Maybe your own selection method either is or can be applied to limiting those awful losing runs and or possibly reducing the 7% deficit etc.

My own problem is I cannot get my head around the techicalities such as weight/distances/draw and on and on and therefore look for the simple and easy route letting ratings and speed do the work for me.

VDW is a monster that is either loved or hated, I am neutral because I do not understand and so perhaps you will be kind enough to expand what you mean by adjusting RPR to 10 stone and with Flat Racing to be soon upon us can you use this for the flat.

Good luck with your 4 selections, it looks as if we are going "Head to head" but I have not a clue as to how my four will perform. In fact when I took a second look at them HOPEFUL START was 2nd fav. on Odds Checker and if I was betting it would have been crossed out,

FAMOUS LAST WORDS!

Me and my BIG MOUTH

Billy's Outback Shack

[Anonymous]

Hi Billion,

As usual, you’ve raised some fascinating conundrums – the problem is that they’re so difficult to solve!

Your comment about punters wanting to get on so often sums up the main issue in a nutshell, I think. Most punters bet far, far too often. Because they do, they lose.

For me the main discipline is knowing when not to bet. That would be almost always.

Is there a single mechanical approach to betting that works sufficiently well sufficiently often, so that it generates a profit in the long term? I doubt it. If I’m right, that would rule out a strategy such as sticking only to non-handicaps, or sticking only to favourites.

I don’t hold myself out as having any definitive answers, but I suspect the only valid approach to take is to try to gauge which of the many possible variables are most likely to be in play the strongest in any particular race. If you have insufficient information available to you to make this determination, pass on the race in question. That would mean almost always passing (see above).

This approach is without doubt an art more than a science, in my opinion, which is why I’m dubious about the worth of any approach based on "statistics".

I’d argue that price is always relevant. The shorter the price, the more difficult it is to be right in your analysis sufficiently often to generate a profit.

Regards,

Brian

[billion]

Hiya

bcsim999 (Brian)

I think there are two areas which I can now identify as being my downfall over the years.

DISCIPLINE. I still am finding it so hard to resist making an excuse to bet. As an example, I set the rules for a system as per yesterday with "non handicap" races, the 5.35 bumper had so little form any selection had to be a shot in the dark but I still made it a selection because despite such limited information it still was the only qualifier.

To SPECIALISE. With so much racing I have come to believe there are far too many levels or opportunities which can lead us all astray and therefore spreading our knowledge far to thinly on which the bookies/layers prey upon. Many a time I have believed I was on route to finding a successful system/method and have been unwittingly diverted.

Which returns me to DISCIPLINE and having the strength of mind to remain on course with my determination to find the best favourites (low priced selections) with the greatest chance of winning.

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

SUNDAY’s non handicap favourites: –

Carlisle 3.00 Mr Woods 7/4f +Tspd

Carlisle 3.35 Ernst Blofeld 8/11f +Tspd

Newton Abbot 3.25 Mistree Dancer 5/4f (betfair) +Tspd

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NEGATIVES: –
Carlisle 5.15 limited form
Fontwell 2.40 RPR joint
Fontwell 3.10 Kanad – no Topspeed rating othwerwise 7/4f

Newton Abbot 4.00 RPR joint
=========================================================

Very early prices taken from Odds Checker

Billy's Outback Shack

[Pompete]

Hi Billion,

The adjusting to 10st is on the flat if I where to use this on the NH it would be adjusted to 12st. The process is:

(a-b)+c

where

a = 140 or 168
b = Winners Weight Carried (it’s up to you what you do about any allowance)
c = Winners RPR (or other rating expressed in Ibs)

As I mentioned I average the (up to) last six for each horse in the race to produce a ‘rough and ready’ ‘Class Figure’.

Here is an example for today: 2.10 Fontwell

Kauto the Roc – 132 – 119 – 136 – 133 – Average 129
Sophies Trophy – 121 – 137 – 135 – Average 131

As you can see both horses have been running in races where the winners were awarded roughly the same RPR’s.

However consider this: 3.10 Fontwell

Helen Wood – 132 – 127 – 137 – Average 132
Alrafid – 112 – 109 – 118 – 113 – 115 – 111 – Average 113

As you can see Helen Wood has consistently been running in races where the winners have been awarded a higher RPR than Alrafid.

Now, as I stated I make no claims to whether you can use this in your system – it is nothing more than it is – as I explained the conditions under which I used it where very different. However, it is something you may wish to consider.

Btw, I only use the VDW staking plan on systems that produce a level stakes profit to enhance profits. I don’t use VDW itself – not clever enough to understand it.

I’ve got something you might be interested in re discipline – I’ll post it later.

[billion]

POMPETE

it is very kind of you to share and I do hope it brings about some constructive response.

It has given me a general idea of VDW and that old expresion of "class" or at least your idea of it and will I hope find time as to how to apply your ideas.

A good few years back I was in touch with the late Robin Lloyd, contributer to the Odds On magazine and early believer in how the computer could help find winners. He was a big fan of Top-Speed combined with win percentage plus total earnings in order to help him equate "class". There were possibly other elements but these were the only ones of which I am aware.

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Monday March 22

Just the one today having disregarded any anomalies such as joint top RPR or second fav. on Odds Checker.

Kelso 2.10 DR LIVINGSTONE + Tspd. Evens fav @ 1/1 Bet365

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Monday March 22

Just the one today having disregarded any anomalies such as joint top RPR or second fav. on Odds Checker.

Kelso 2.10 DR LIVINGSTONE + Tspd. fav @ 1/1 Bet365

LOST

Billy's Outback Shack

[Pompete]

Hi Billion

I thought you may be interested that Dr Livingstone is also a stand out with the ‘Class Factor’ added as well.

Here is my datasheet for the race (I’ve put some notes on it for you) 2.10 Kelso

I hope I haven’t jinked it for you now

[billion]

‘morning

POMPETE

I will have a look at your data sheet in a mo’ as I am interested in your ratings and it may give me a better insight into what you are doing and again thanks for sharing.

DISCIPLINE, oh dear, here I go again, I guess more out of boredom than fear of

missing a winner

.

Same scenario, RPR + Forecast Fav + Odds Checker Fav.
(But this time for handicaps where the prices should be better)

Wolv’s 3.50 SRDA @ 1/1

Wolv’s 4.20 MUNICH @ 3/1

Plumpton 5.00 PORTRAIT ROYALE @ 2/1

LOST

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

My compliments to you

POMPETE

for a very classy data sheet.

I think the headings "W" "I" etc. look to have got lost somewhere along the way, nevertheless it is very professional compared to my own work.

Billy's Outback Shack

[Pompete]

Sorry Billion, I took out the ‘sensitive stuff’ and it all got a bit squashed up.

The ‘Class Figures’ are under ‘Latest Form’ next to the ‘Race Type’ – the average is on top.

[billion]

Thanks again

POMPETE

You say (like me) you are a small stakes punter but can you say what % strike rate you are having at what average SP.

Billy's Outback Shack

[Formath]

Hi you two,
I hope you will not mind me sticking my oar in
My best advice would be to avoid betting in general at less than 6/4 as it is almost certain that over time you will not maintain a high enough strike-rate to profit. Even at 6/4 you will need around 50% to succeed.

[Author]

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