Fillies' Mile 2019

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  • #1465788
    Marginal Value
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    • Total Posts 635

    Mike007 – Not bred for the oaks unless a breeding expert can prove me wrong.

    Will Quadrilateral have enough stamina to win The Oaks? With pedigrees, there never will be any proof, only a range of probabilities.

    Using the Dosage System for analysing pedigrees (see explanation at: https://www.onlinebetting.com/horse-racing/horse-bet-types/dosage/) that has been around for a long time now, the data suggests that she will stay the distance.

    For those who have not come across this system before:

    The calculation for the Dosage Index (DI) gives a number that says 1.00 is a perfect balance between Speed and Stamina. The closer to zero the number is, the more emphasis there is on stamina.

    The calculation of the Centre of Distribution (CD) gives a number that says that 0.00 is a perfect balance between Speed and Stamina. Negative numbers favour stamina, postive numbers favour speed.

    Quadrilateral’s figures are:
    DI = 0.68
    CD = -0.22

    The last three Oaks winners’ figures are:

    Anapurna
    DI = 0.67
    CD = -0.13

    Forever Together
    DI = 0.71
    CD = -0.05

    Enable
    DI = 0.60
    CD = -0.19

    So that particular system says that there is some evidence she has the pedigree profile of a typical twelve furlong horse.

    However, all systems which purport to use pedigree to predict speed, stamina or best racing distance for any horse have flaws; it’s a very imprecise science. Also, pedigree is not the only determinant of whether a horse is a stayer or a sprinter or anywhere in between.

    #1467820
    KevMcKevMc
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    • Total Posts 1109

    Powerful Breeze was the best horse in the race for me. Doyle got there far too soon and i think she was idling as much as maybe tying up a touch in the soft ground (and after her antics pre-race as Jac has said).

    I had a decent swing at the 14/16s available after this race and the 7s PP have gone is more the kind of price i’d have her sitting at.

    Quadrilateral for me is an Oaks filly all day long. Very soft ground over a mile on Friday and she only managed to get up in the last 50 yards after the one in front idles. That doesn’t shout Guineas to me. Should be faster ground and more pace on i’d imagine come the start of May, can see her staying on into 3rd or 4th in the 1000 with a lovely eye towards the Oaks.

    Took some 12s about her for Epsom post-race, thought she was a stand-out contender for that at this stage.

    #1467839
    LD73
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    • Total Posts 1313

    Pedigrees can be misleading – none of Quadrilateral’s 3 siblings have raced beyond 8.5F but then they were all by speed sires in Bated Breath, Kingman & Oasis Dream respectively.

    What we do know is that right across the board Frankel is imparting stamina into his offspring in abundance and the dam herself Nimble Thimble won over 10F and was also related to several winners at (and over) 12F and actually even had a full brother who won over hurdles at 2m2F.

    For me, she is much more likely to win an Oaks over a 1000g but if there is some cut in the ground at Newmarket next May (not unheard of) she would be in the mix (maybe a case of another Oh So Sharp she just got up in the shadow of the post).

    I am not sure the hit the front too soon angle is the reason Powerful Breeze was beaten, as she was in front pretty much at the same point in the May Hill at Donny albeit on a flat track and quicker ground – out of the two she seems more of the out and out miler.

    #1467886
    Mike007
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    • Total Posts 1149

    Will see if she handles the dip next May. Hopefully it was just ground/inexperience this time. If she dont she won’t win an Oaks regardless of breeding as won’t handle Epsom.

    #1467887
    Mike007
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    • Total Posts 1149

    Will see if she handles the dip next May. Hopefully it was just ground/inexperience this time. If she dont then i doubt she wins an Oaks regardless of breeding as won’t handle Epsom.

    #1467892
    KevMcKevMc
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    • Total Posts 1109

    She handled the dip fine on Friday, what makes you query that aspect Mike?

    #1470191
    Mike007
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    • Total Posts 1149

    I read she was off the bridle going into the dip that was all.

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