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I very much like the chances of Noble Alan in this, each way especially. He really impressed at Perth and I thought he was given a very moderate and over confident ride at Cheltenham after that. He has a fair bit to find on ratings but only 3 of the runners are miles ahead and there are clearly question marks on some at the sharp end of the market. He looks to be improving quickly to me, the stable are still in fine form and they have had success (win and place) in the race previously at big prices, notably with The French Furze.
Very likeable improving horse, who hopefully is better known to his jockey now. I will take a chance at 40/1 e.w. on the dead eight.Not surprised to see the 5/4 going about Punjabi. Henderson’s horses are absolutely flying and Punjabi will like the conditions. Blue Bajan only just gets 2 miles and would need good ground in order to put emphasis on speed. Harchibald is probably on the way down and wouldn’t want ground on the softish side of good anyway plus he doesn’t battle and he’s an old monkey. Sublimity is the only one I can see making a race of it but Punjabi finished in front of him twice last season and I can’t see why he shouldn’t do so again. The rest aren’t good enough surely?
Buying money isn’t it? Famous last words?
I’ve just taken the 17/2 or thereabouts available about Blue Bajan, more in hope than expectation.
I can’t have Harchibald or Sublimity at around 4/1 on this ground after a break, and I think Punjabi is a gross horse who is always likely to come on for the run, regardless of how the stable is performing.
Font hasn’t helped the Noble Alan form, Tazbar wants much further, and the rag is the only other potentially unknown quantity (so I’ve had a very small saver on him).
If The French Furze was running, he’d have a reasonably handy chance of collecting.
With the Henderson stable in this sort of form, I think it will be safe to assume that Punjabi is probably more ready than he has been on previous reappearances. This is an exceptional start he’s having after all.
Blue Bajan would be the e/w bet of the season so far if the ground was g/s or better imo and as much as I like the horse, just can’t bring myself to back it on the going.
A more forward than usual and improving Punjabi on ground he loves, will surely take some beating here.
Sad really as I can’t see Sublimity or Harchibald being happy with a move to Sandown or Chepstow. These stiffer tracks surely won’t suit either.
They have decided to re-route the Fighting Fifth to Wetherby this Saturday.
The race will not be reopened and the five-day entries will stand from the original race,so there are ten entries at the moment, although, there were only eight going to post for the Newcastle race, with Beau Michael and Degas Art the two that didn’t stand their ground. The going is good-soft at the moment. But with the north, in what feels like the grip of the ice age at the moment, the going is likely to change. I hope they have a bit more luck at Wetherby than they did at Newcastle.
Good battling effort there from Punjabi, i thought Sublimity might have been getting past him at one point coming down to the last fence, but very good battling win for the Nicky Henderson trained horse.
We will know more after the Christmas Hurdle though.
I never thought for a second that Sublimity would get past Punjabi Henderson’s horse is a tough bugger. Good performance from the first two in a slowly run race on bad ground connections of both can be pleased.
Don’t think Punjabi was suited by the slow pace there.
Having said that, I regret not putting Sublimity in my 10 to follows. Still looks capable of running to his very best. His young trainer deserves a great deal of credit. From what I saw on TV looked fit (unlike last season). Do wonder whether Sublimity has a slight temperament flaw though. Don’t know if he truly wants to go through with his effort.
Mark
Value Is EverythingDon’t think Punjabi was suited by the slow pace there.
Having said that, I regret not putting Sublimity in my 10 to follows. Still looks capable of running to his very best. His young trainer deserves a great deal of credit. From what I saw on TV looked fit (unlike last season). Do wonder whether Sublimity has a slight temperament flaw though. Don’t know if he truly wants to go through with his effort.
Mark
I echo your concerns Mark. Contrast that with Punjabi who you know will fight. Perhaps its a fraction harsh on Sublimity but when it came down to a battle today I could only ever see one winner and I struggle to see Sublimity winning another Champion Hurdle he looks odds on to get outbattled up the hill.
Do wonder whether Sublimity has a slight temperament flaw though. Don’t know if he truly wants to go through with his effort.
Mark
I do actually think the same, from seeing the race again.
I have always said Sublimity doesn’t get 2 miles but before you start biting my head of I haven’t seen the race yet. But getting caught in the last strides and failing to go though with it sounds oh so famliar.
12/1 for the Champion Hurdle? They have got to be kidding surely. Beaten 3 times by Punjabi who is expected to improve for the run. His stable companion is regarded as much superior, Sublimity will not get up the hill, anyway hasn’t got the class to even bother these young hurdlers come March when they will all be spot on…….wouldn’t back him at 50/1.
I have always said Sublimity doesn’t get 2 miles but before you start biting my head of I haven’t seen the race yet. But getting caught in the last strides and failing to go though with it sounds oh so famliar.
12/1 for the Champion Hurdle? They have got to be kidding surely. Beaten 3 times by Punjabi who is expected to improve for the run. His stable companion is regarded as much superior, Sublimity will not get up the hill, anyway hasn’t got the class to even bother these young hurdlers come March when they will all be spot on…….wouldn’t back him at 50/1.
I think it shows here that you havent seen the race. He definitly did not do a harchibald here and for me was not travelling much better (a carberry type ride can be decieveing) than the winner. I also strongly believe that last years champion hurdle was all about stamina. I never saw so many horses out with the washing from so far back therefore he did remarkable well to finish where he did for a complete non stayer.
That said, I think he won a champion hurdle partly due circumstance for the race and as a flat horse, he didnt have the constitution to make much racing. He will always be threat IMO and 12 to 1 is about right for me at.
SHL
I’m glad I haven’t seen the race was it foggy? or do you have a very long livingroom and a very small TV?
Unless Carberry borrowed a mask from Ethan Hunt that was Andrew McNamara ridng Sublimity.
Genuine mistake and I take your point…what was it again?
You want 12/1? be happy to lay you all you can muster at 200/1 because if he wins it’s very likely you will think it was Denamn in the Gold Cup and not collect
Fists, I have to disagree with you here, punjabi is probably THE speed horse in the champ hurdle market IMO, the way he finished out last years champ hurdle which was really slow IMO and one that many couldnt get into, suggested to me that although he probably doesnt get 2miles generally but at a slow pace he can finish like a train.
Today he got a race that worked out exactly like that and he got his head in front of sublimity who to be fair was as game as you like to come out with the winning margins as they were. I would expect sublimity to prove the better of the two out of the race and where I wouldnt be flocking to lump on Sublimity at 12-1, it really isnt a bad price, and Sublimity is one who I would be happy to have on my side at cheltenham with a better prep than he had last year, new trainer and all.
For the record, many people slate sublimity (like many have with katchit) as a weak chmap hurdle winner, but with conditions in his favour, I dont think theres one horse in the champ hurdle market that sublimity couldnt stick it to, and I too am on Binny.
I suppose I could consider 12-1 on Sublimity for cheltenham, because if he is still that price come march I would happily back him at it.
Having stood up for Sublimity last season citing poor preparation and fitness, having seen the race today I just don’t think he’s 100% genuine. He travelled all over Punjabi and did stay on, but lost the race by hanging. He’ll need a properly strong pace to have any chance in the Champion IMO and the 16s is just about right at this stage.
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