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The ante-post market really hasn’t taken off but I think Shuil Royale probably put up the best performance so far this season and should be favourite so the 20/1 represents the current value. Very similar pedigree to last year’s winner being by Kings Theatre out of a very useful staying mare.
As mentioned on another thread Henderson has several potentially useful types but most have only done it once (on right-handed speed tracks) and given the trainer’s thoughts on the race they are unbackable ante-post.
Look out for a horse called Divine Rhapsody who is trained by Philip Rothwell. Won his sole bumper start in the big Goffs land rover bumper at Punchestown last year in impressive style. Ran very green with lots of improvement expected. The runner up that day is as low as 20/1 for the Cheltenham bumper despite being beaten comprehensibly by the winner.The form is rock solid with the 2nd,3rd,4th,and 5th all coming out and winning their bumpers after this race. You could do alot worse than take some of the 33s at the moment!!
Look out for a horse called Divine Rhapsody who is trained by Philip Rothwell. Won his sole bumper start in the big Goffs land rover bumper at Punchestown last year in impressive style. Ran very green with lots of improvement expected. The runner up that day is as low as 20/1 for the Cheltenham bumper despite being beaten comprehensibly by the winner.The form is rock solid with the 2nd,3rd,4th,and 5th all coming out and winning their bumpers after this race. You could do alot worse than take some of the 33s at the moment!!
Had a look and although he did win nicely there are a few downsides – started at 33/1, hasn’t run since so lacks experience even if the Festival bumper is the target and he hasn’t subsequently had a setback, pretty ordinary pedigree and those who have franked the form were not doing anything that what was unexpected judged on SP’s.
I’ve a small e/w bet on both bold optimist because i like Elliott and he thinks the horse is going to be top drawer and also Cheltenian,given a terrible ride in his only race and subsequently sold for around 200k
so big things are obviously expected,trained by Philip hobbs now and holds an entry friday at Kempton so i’ll be interested in seeing how he runs! 
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I backed Knights Pass (12/1) a few weeks ago and have just added Oscara Dara (33/1) of Alan Fleming’s to my portfolio.
- Total Posts 17716
The ante-post market really hasn’t taken off but I think Shuil Royale probably put up the best performance so far this season and should be favourite so the 20/1 represents the current value. Very similar pedigree to last year’s winner being by Kings Theatre out of a very useful staying mare.
As mentioned on another thread Henderson has several potentially useful types but most have only done it once (on right-handed speed tracks) and given the trainer’s thoughts on the race they are unbackable ante-post.
Shuil Royale is, according to the Sporting Life website, going to be sent over hurdles in the next two or three weeks.
A strange decision.
The ante-post market really hasn’t taken off but I think Shuil Royale probably put up the best performance so far this season and should be favourite so the 20/1 represents the current value. Very similar pedigree to last year’s winner being by Kings Theatre out of a very useful staying mare.
As mentioned on another thread Henderson has several potentially useful types but most have only done it once (on right-handed speed tracks) and given the trainer’s thoughts on the race they are unbackable ante-post.
Shuil Royale is, according to the Sporting Life website, going to be sent over hurdles in the next two or three weeks.
A strange decision.
The quote the following day was the horse was to go straight to the Festival bumper.
I was very surprised the 20/1 wasn’t taken but any idea to go hurdling at this stage would be bonkers rather than strange.
Look out for a horse called Divine Rhapsody who is trained by Philip Rothwell. Won his sole bumper start in the big Goffs land rover bumper at Punchestown last year in impressive style. Ran very green with lots of improvement expected. The runner up that day is as low as 20/1 for the Cheltenham bumper despite being beaten comprehensibly by the winner.The form is rock solid with the 2nd,3rd,4th,and 5th all coming out and winning their bumpers after this race. You could do alot worse than take some of the 33s at the moment!!
Had a look and although he did win nicely there are a few downsides – started at 33/1, hasn’t run since so lacks experience even if the Festival bumper is the target and he hasn’t subsequently had a setback, pretty ordinary pedigree and those who have franked the form were not doing anything that what was unexpected judged on SP’s.
I don’t understand… On the one hand you are knocking Divine Rhapsody for being too big a price on the day he wins, but also knocking the subsequent wins of the horses he beat because they were too short a price?
Look out for a horse called Divine Rhapsody who is trained by Philip Rothwell. Won his sole bumper start in the big Goffs land rover bumper at Punchestown last year in impressive style. Ran very green with lots of improvement expected. The runner up that day is as low as 20/1 for the Cheltenham bumper despite being beaten comprehensibly by the winner.The form is rock solid with the 2nd,3rd,4th,and 5th all coming out and winning their bumpers after this race. You could do alot worse than take some of the 33s at the moment!!
Had a look and although he did win nicely there are a few downsides – started at 33/1, hasn’t run since so lacks experience even if the Festival bumper is the target and he hasn’t subsequently had a setback, pretty ordinary pedigree and those who have franked the form were not doing anything that what was unexpected judged on SP’s.
I don’t understand… On the one hand you are knocking Divine Rhapsody for being too big a price on the day he wins, but also knocking the subsequent wins of the horses he beat because they were too short a price?
There is a difference between ‘knocking’ and pointing out a few things that you may or may not choose to consider if you are thinking of backing the horse. Not unheard of but rare for a very good horse to be sent off 33/1 even on debut so there is the chance it may have been a freak result. We don’t know until he backs it up. As for the horses franking the form I was only suggesting that they were achieving no more than the market suggested they would.
So it devalues the form of a race if you win it at long odds, and it also devalues the merit of a win if it comes at short odds?
I always enjoyed the Bumper but a couple of years ago I reviewed my records and they were truly woeful. No winners since Montelado and a very bad Profit/Loss (-27pts).
I then adopted a different policy in 2009…I totally ignored all articles, form, analyis and comments (i haven’t read any of the above ..sorry) on the Bumper and on the Sunday evening before the festival I sat down and watched the video of every runner in every race available, and then made my choice based exclusively and who did it ‘in the eye’.. This produced
Dunguib 2009 2pts, doesnt sound impressive now but he was 7/1 on the Sunday
Al Ferof 2010 1.5pts ran well (10/1) but well beaten ultimately.P/L of 12.5pts profit.
A tiny sample, I know, but in a race where there is no real collateral form, no worthwhile speed ratings and with lack of stable information (on my part) I honestly believe this is quite a good approach and I will be employing it again this year.
Just a little update on the above. The Racing Post has run a feature on the owner’s of Shuil Royale but no mention of the decision not to run at the Festival? Shoddy journalism or is the previously announcement not set in stone?
The market for this race appears more volatile than ever. Seemingly horses are being shortened up on little more than a commitment to run. Knight Pass is almost favourite by default, two easy wins but the actual form is nothing to get excited about. Not sure who is backing the Hobbs horses – all appear woefully underpriced. The 8/1 Cheltenian offered by Fred Done must have been one of the worst ante-post prices offered this year. The Persian Snow bubble was burst yesterday and Fingal Bay should be amongst those at 33/1 bar. It seems Henderson may have committed Ericht to the race – he has probably done enough to be favourite – but Mono Man is likely to bypass the Festival despite halving in price yesterday. No news of Hit THe Headlines.
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