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So another weekend gone, and Mullins stranglehold on the festival gets even tighter. now all the talk is on round 2 of the Mullins 4 – Min, Douvan, Faugheen and Annie Power but I can’t help but think right now there’s a great chance to get some nice ew accumulators in those races. Ladbrokes are also offering betting without the fav Supreme, Arkle and Champion Hurdle.
So who would your ew acuumulator consist of? For me I’m coming down to:
Supreme – Buveur D’Air
Only raced the once but it was a hot race beating the odds on Wait For Me and travelled with ease throughout. The forms been franked several times and another win by Wait for Me at Kempton tommorrow can boost it again. There was a worry that he hadn’t been seen since and all was not well but apparently all he’s ok and he’s entered to run again this Friday. A good run could see him 2nd/3rd fav and looks very classy. Henderson has a good record of places horses in the supreme and I prefer him over Altior, albeit Altior has done well. Only concern is a possible preference for soft ground? Yorkhill & Tombstone the other contenders for me.12/1
Arkle – Vaniteux
This is going to cut up very badly! Douvan with good reason is going to scare the majority off, possibly the best they’ve ever had and described as a different species!! He’s my certainty of the meeting but again ew value especially as he may scare so many off its only 2 places on the day. I think Nicky will be scared off and see the JLT as L’ami Serges race. All winter he’s been talking/joking about Mullins and avoiding his horses. Add in the fact Killultagh Vic is fav for the JLT and he was brushed aside by LS last year so he’ll fancy his chance. I think Shaneshill, GLV, Sizing John, Bristol De Mai all go JLT. So that leaves Vaniteux and Ar Mad. AM just had the beating over Christmas but that track would have played to his strength and the uncertainty over left handed tracks means I’d fancy Vaniteux to reverse that form. Placed 4/5 times at Cheltenham. At a big price Fox Norton could be an outside to grab a place.8/1
Champion Hurdle – Arctic Fire
Placed in the race last year and a good run today to finish second to the Machine. I was shocked his price wasn’t trimmed slightly afterwards as he looks an each way shoe in (though I thought the same last year with Jezki!
). He’ll be ridden to finish strongly at the end and with the English contenders lacking he’s got a great chance to follow Faugheen home. 8/1
Mares – Polly Peachum
This looks the hardest one to call for me. As often the case it looks a weak division with a stand out mare(s) of Mullins. A couple of my possible each way fancies were lacklustre on Saturday – Aurore D’Estruval, Rons Dream, Desert Queen and The Governesss all falling back. Bitofapuzzle is a contender if she’s reverts back to hurdles after falling last time out but that looks unlikely. Cannon Fodder could be a big price but I’m left with last years runner up. Ran a great race and very nearly won. Will be her last race before retirement and this is a confirmed target. Beaten when odds on on season debut but won on her next start on heavy ground (beating several of these) – something that is not ideal so looks in good form and should come on for spring ground.12/1
£5 EW on the above pays just under £400.
Mullins will have at least two mares line up in the mares hurdle. Probably three, Annie Power, Petite Parisienne and Morning Run being the most likely in my opinion. I wouldn’t rule out morning run at 25/1 of coming second or third. Just look at what jennies jewel managed to do to all the so called good British mares, and I believe morning run is a far superior horse to jennies jewel. On that basis morning run is a horse I would put in an each way line.
P.S he might also run gitane du berlais but that horse is useless as is petite Parisienne, and it would be considered not more than a selling hurdle if either of those two were considered each way bets for the mares race.
Good post photo_finish and I’d agree with 3/4 of those (I’m really keen on Buveur D’air) but Garde La Victoire is the best e/w value in the Arkle @ 16/1.
We know he’s going for this race and was closely matched with Vaniteux over hurdles yet has more jumping experience and will see the hill out better.
Incidentally Ladbrokes went 4/1 Arctic Fire in the w/o market straight after the ICH yesterday which with the NRNB protection was one of the greatest e/w bets you’ll ever see. Idiots.
Lee
Ar Mad
Peace & Co
Traffic Fluide
Altior
Saphir Du RheuJust noticed your on page 7 of the racing post
Critical here that you genuinely feel you have winners identified, otherwise place accum way to go
I did the following about 4 weeks ago
Shantou village 16/1
Seeyouatmidnight 14/1
Alpha des obeaux 16/1
Killultagh vic 12/1So far so good…
Also for the place accum only:
Modus 6/1
Nichols canyon 3/1
Road to riches 5/1
Petit mouchoir 6/1Potentially ropey!
Ar Mad
Peace & Co
Traffic Fluide
Altior
Saphir Du RheuJust noticed your on page 7 of the racing post
That’ll make a nice change from The Police Gazette :)
That’ll make a nice change from The Police Gazette
[/quote]
Haha
Must say that I agree with your quote also.I know these are anti-mullins, but I have included some WM that are not ridiculously short favourites: Day 1, I am going:
Supreme – Tombstone – 14
Arkle – Ar Mad – 14
Champion Hurdle – Arctic Fire – 9
Mares Hurdle – Polly Peachum – 12
£25 returns £2000Bachasson – 33
Arkle – Ar Mad – 14
Champion Hurdle – Arctic Fire – 9
Mares Hurdle – Polly Peachum – 12
£25 returns £4000The horses that get placed in the Champion Hurdle will be those that keep well off the pace, the ones that lay up with Faugheen will get burnt out and will never be seen again.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Fingal Bay looks a good shout, narrowing the field had a section on him on this weeks blog backing up the theory of many that there’s a big prize lurking somewhere soon and also highlights how much an undulating track like Cheltenham could be ideal.
Great shout on traffic fluide.
Lot of calls for Ar Mad – I’m uneasy about the trainers doubts over left handed tracks and I’d also be concerned he’ll Go off in frontt, get in a battle with Douvan and suffer with the likes of Vaniteux and GlV picking up the places – can anyone convince me otherwise why he’s the best place bet? Wilsonl – I’m going to have another look over GLV’s form as you make a good case
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