- This topic has 26 replies, 12 voices, and was last updated 11 years, 9 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
A very grey area as far as I’m concerned but now that the ‘unofficial’ Arkle entries are in and it is reduced to 8 runners, if I take an e/w ante post price today and there are only 5-7 runners on the day, will I still be paid out to 3 places ?
Depends on the bookmaker perhaps ?
Lee
Whoever the bookmaker is WilsonI, you get paid at whatever the terms were
at the time the bet was placed
. So even if it is reduced to 3 horses on the day you still get paid for finishing third.
Value Is EverythingWhether betting each way ante-post is sensible is another thing. Some would not dream of backing a horse win only ante-post at less than 5/1, yet are in reality taking far shorter than that for the place part of each way ante-post betting.
Each way bets virtually doubles risk if the horse does not run. Possibly better to use win only and then lay a bit back later on if and when the horse shortens. Most horses eventually taking part in ante-post races start at a shorter price than weeks or months ago; because often 50, 100 or even 200 horses have been reduced to may be 10. Finding a runner is part of the skill.
Punters need to be careful betting ante-post in general. Ante-post victories may look exceptional, 20/1 winners available on the day @ only 100/30 etc. may seem brilliant. But punters also need to look at how much they lose through ante-post non-runners. Ante-post punters with the 20/1 winner may feel they’ve got outstanding value compared to those taking 100/30. However, it all depends on their other ante-post bets…
If a punter has had 1 point ante-post bets on say five Cheltenham Festival races, all @ 20/1. Say only one 20/1 shot runs, (
important, getting one run for the over all 5 point investment
) and wins, returning
21 points
.
If another punter has not invested in any ante-post betting and instead backs that same horse using the same
over all 5 points stakes
@ 100/30 it returns
21.66 points
. Getting a better return on investment than the ante-post punter.
Value Is EverythingWhether betting each way ante-post is sensible is another thing. Some would not dream of backing a horse win only ante-post at less than 5/1, yet are in reality taking far shorter than that for the place part of each way ante-post betting.
Each way bets virtually doubles risk if the horse does not run. Possibly better to use win only and then lay a bit back later on if and when the horse shortens. Most horses eventually taking part in ante-post races start at a shorter price than weeks or months ago; because often 50, 100 or even 200 horses have been reduced to may be 10. Finding a runner is part of the skill.
Punters need to be careful betting ante-post in general. Ante-post victories may look exceptional, 20/1 winners available on the day @ only 100/30 etc. may seem brilliant. But punters also need to look at how much they lose through ante-post non-runners. Ante-post punters with the 20/1 winner may feel they’ve got outstanding value compared to those taking 100/30. However, it all depends on their other ante-post bets…
If a punter has had 1 point ante-post bets on say five Cheltenham Festival races, all @ 20/1, an over all outlay of 5 points.
Say only one 20/1 shot runs, and wins, returning21 points
to his/her
over all 5 points outlay
.
If another punter has not done any ante-post betting and instead backs that same horse using the same
over all 5 points stakes
@ 100/30 it returns
21.66 points
. Getting a better return on investment than the ante-post punter.
One thing you fail to mention in your above example Ginge is that The ante-Post Punter has 5 horses in 5 different races running for him with a potential return of 100 points,that gives the Ante-Post Punter a far better ‘Value’ bet than just the one horse on the day punter.Of course the thrill of seeing your Ante-Post horse progress through the season culminating in it running in your target race and even winning as fav like you say then the thrill of such a feat far outways the victory on the day punter.Just a small point of conjecture there Ginge,I’d hate to think people think what you say is Gospel!
I wouldn’t touch Ante-Post betting Wilsonl, it’s a mugs game!
Wait till the day, it’ll see you fine.
One thing you fail to mention in your above example Ginge is that The ante-Post Punter has 5 horses in 5 different races running for him with a potential return of 100 points,that gives the Ante-Post Punter a far better ‘Value’ bet than just the one horse on the day punter.Of course the thrill of seeing your Ante-Post horse progress through the season culminating in it running in your target race and even winning as fav like you say then the thrill of such a feat far outways the victory on the day punter.Just a small point of conjecture there Ginge,I’d hate to think people think what you say is Gospel!
I have mentioned the 5 horses in 5 races, important thing Gord is the number of horses
eventually taking part
. As I said, if
only one
of the five 20/1 horses take part then the value is not what it seems, ie the one 100/30 shot returning more money. The ante-post punter does not "have five horses running for him" if only one horse turns up. If two or more 20/1 shots
turn up
(not neccessarily win) then the ante-post punter has obviously got better value than the one day of race 100/30 bet.
What I am saying Gord, is the ante-post
losing bets
need to be taken in to account when considering whether each
individual punter
does well at ante-post betting. It isn’t just about getting the odd 20/1 winner that’s only available at a fraction of those odds on the day.
Value Is EverythingI don’t normally bet AP, especially e/w but for me Overturn is an absolute steal e/w for the Arkle @ 7/1 with Laddies and effectively offers a free win bet.
Especially with the unofficial dead 8 declared at present, Captain Conan likely to go for the Jewson and similar routes potentially becoming Arvika Legionniere and Oscars Well.
Overturn isn’t too far behind Simonsig – if at all and no way should one be odds on and another 7/1.
Simply cannot see Overturn being outside the first three.
Lee
I don’t normally bet AP, especially e/w but for me Overturn is an absolute steal e/w for the Arkle @ 7/1 with Laddies and effectively offers a free win bet.
Especially with the unofficial dead 8 declared at present, Captain Conan likely to go for the Jewson and similar routes potentially becoming Arvika Legionniere and Oscars Well.
Overturn isn’t too far behind Simonsig – if at all and no way should one be odds on and another 7/1.
Simply cannot see Overturn being outside the first three.
Lee
Not really the topic, but if I were having one ante-post e/w bet this year (which I’m not!), Overturn would be it.
His facile defeat of Conquisto yesterday puts him right next to Simonsig form-wise and he’s probably achieved the same as his best hurdles runs on that basis. Jumps really, really quick which is key for The Arkle and
must
be considerably shorter on the day.
Mike
I don’t normally bet AP, especially e/w but for me Overturn is an absolute steal e/w for the Arkle @ 7/1 with Laddies and effectively offers a free win bet.
Especially with the unofficial dead 8 declared at present, Captain Conan likely to go for the Jewson and similar routes potentially becoming Arvika Legionniere and Oscars Well.
Overturn isn’t too far behind Simonsig – if at all and no way should one be odds on and another 7/1.
Simply cannot see Overturn being outside the first three.
Lee
Not sure where you’re getting the "dead eight" from Lee, there’s more than that entered.
I’ve backed Overturn for the Arkle too Lee (win only), but be a bit careful when thinking he’s a cert for the first three. Because the game has changed now there’s a 2m4f Conditions Novice Chase at the Festival. If enables the very best novices to avoid each other nowadays. Last year Overturn’s stable-mate Peddlers Cross was supposedly the each way certainty against Sprinter Sacre. I even backed Peddlers in Paddy Power’s "money back if Sprinter Sacre wins" market. Only to realise Peddlers needed to run for me to get my money back. Jumping ship to the Jewson.
At 7/1 the place part of an each way bet is virtually just a saver bet.
1 point each way wins 7 ‘/, 4 = 1.75 – win stake = just a 0.75 point profit. All for virtually doubling your risk for if he’s injured or runs in the Jewson.
In my opinion a better bet is backing win only. Without the place part of the bet you could even risk say a quarter more than you would on the win part of an each way punt (eg instead of a £20 each way have a £25 win only… Then, if (as we think) the odds of 7/1 are very attractive – other good judges will also believe the same and take the price… Leading to the horse shortening up and us able to get out by laying Overturn back on the exchanges for our effective "free bet".
Another way might be to have the win bet @ 7/1 and then put a saver bet on the favourite on the day.
Don’t let me put you off having some sort of bet one way or the other Lee, because in my opinion 7/1 Overturn is outstanding value even with the Jewson worry.
Value Is EverythingIn my opinion a better bet is backing win only. Without the place part of the bet you could even risk say a quarter more than you would on the win part of an each way punt (eg instead of a £20 each way have a £25 win only… Then, if (as we think) the odds of 7/1 are very attractive – other good judges will also believe the same and take the price… Leading to the horse shortening up and us able to get out by laying Overturn back on the exchanges for our effective "free bet".
That’s the strategy, absolutely. It either doesn’t run or it shortens – although connections are touting another run before Cheltenham which may shorten/lengthen the price.
Don’t agree that one is ‘doubling the risk’ backing each-way as I would halve the unit stake.
The point is moot anyway as I believe each-way betting is generally the preserve of those rather too fond of musical theatre.
Mike
When a Bookmaker tells you the worst bet they take is an E/w Single that tells me its the best bet a punter can place. Ante-Post betting seperates the Men from the boys as you have to endure months of anxiety and for many they just cant hack it! Personally speaking ‘Wilson1’ I’m rather excited about having a pile of Ante-Post vouchers on
Dawn Approach
for the 2000gns at 20/1.I will say this though I’d rather lose them early rather than at the last minute like I did on
Age of Aquarius
! that was a sickener as he’d have run away with the Leger that year.My advice is if you fancy a horse Ante-Post,take the price and back it e/w.I backed
Lycius
at 40/1 to win the 1991 2000gns and he was pipped by ‘Mystiko’ but at least I got 10/1 a place and that at least ensured a profit.
We can all quote big prices we’ve taken/won Gord. How many more times are we going to hear about your 20/1 Dawn Approach between now and May?
We all like to remember the good bets/days. It’s the non-runner losers that we don’t hear about day in day out from ante-post punters… The ones we all like to conveniently forget – that can (with some punters) outweigh the good bets/days.Have you ever counted up the stakes on your ante-post non-runner losers Gord and added those stakes to your ante-post winning bets – to find the real value in them.
eg. Like I said, if out of five 20/1 ante-post bets only one makes it to the race – means a punter is in reality taking less than 100/30 on the one horse to race.
Value Is EverythingI wouldn’t touch Ante-Post betting Wilsonl, it’s a mugs game!
Wait till the day, it’ll see you fine.
I concur, any bookmaker worth their salt should welcome you with open arms for such a bet, for as much as you want.
If they don’t, they have either got a screw loose or are yellow to the core and trading under a false description.I wouldn’t touch Ante-Post betting Wilsonl, it’s a mugs game!
Why is it ‘a mugs game’?
Mike
As I said I don’t normally bet ante post OR e/w for that matter, let alone combining the two.
I’ve been betting for 30 years now since a young lad and I can honestly say this is the first time I’ve ever placed an ante post e/w bet – in fact it’s only my third ante post of the festival. The first was placing a free £25 I’d been given by 888 on Grandouet for the champion hurdle, the second a WIN only on Tidal Bay @ 28s for the world hurdle as soon as I read the news of Big Buck’s injury and now Overturn E/W @ 7/1.
The latter mainly because of the reasons Ginge states, in so much that I can easily see the Arkle cutting up badly with Captain Conan and one or both of the Mullins and Harrington horses entered elsewhere.
Overturn on the other hand only has one race as his target and barring injury, he’ll turn up – yes he’s entered for the Champion Hurdle but surely that was only precautionary.
Even if all of the leading contenders do turn up I’d have doubts about Arvika on the quicker ground and Oscars Well’s jumping at the pace Overturn will likely set.
Simonsig is actually my idea of the winner but IMO a lot of people are getting caught up on the "next Sprinter Sacre" bandwagon and while he may well be, he has yet to convince me with his jumping – unlike his stablemate – and it will be severely tested in the Arkle.
In all reality, the probable outcome is that he’ll come there swinging and quicken away up the hill but aside from his jumping there is a niggling doubt in my mind going back to his Sandown defeat by Fingal Bay last year. Yes, he possibly didn’t see out the trip but he failed to find anything when looking all over the winner and if that is any slight semblence of character trait then he’s going to have his work cut out to go past a hugely determined animal like Overturn.
I did consider win only with a view to laying off but for whatever reason, laying horses just isn’t in my nature. Maybe because the money is secondary and it’s the evaluation / picking a winner I like.
The irony is I work in investment banking and would have no problem short selling so it must just be a love of the game
Another option was the available even money on the machine for place only but I’m happy with my bet.
I don’t like talking amounts so let’s say my stake as a ratio is £5 e/w plus £1 win meaning that if he only finishes placed I’ve got my stake back but if he wins I’ll be the one with my face plastered to the window of the new C4 studio.
Far better value in my eyes than taking odds on about a novice at the festival with over 8 weeks to go and barring an accident there’s no way Overturn will be 7s on the day. Plus any unfortunate incident becoming Overturn between now and March could just as easily happen to Simonsig and should it do so, McCain’s horse would be vying for favouritism on the day – again IMO.
Incidentally, not quiet sure about the ‘unofficial’ declarations on the RP. Only 8 runners quoted
Lee
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.