- This topic has 380 replies, 46 voices, and was last updated 2 years, 4 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Regarding Goldspur Ken Pitterson does a column on ATR and he was not particularly complimentary about him as a physical specimen after Sandown
You can never quite tell whether a horse will get Epsom or not, but I can’t help but think Luxembourg looks and feels like – although his name isn’t exactly thrilling – the sort of horse who should win the Derby or come incredibly close.
Maybe something will come up through the trials, but I think a bet on him at this stage is not the most foolish idea.
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
Agree, Luxembourg has an awkward action but it’s not as if he’s odds-on.
Bloody good Guineas, imo Luxembourg would have won many renewals.
Don’t need to believe he’s anything like a probable winner to back him.
At 5/2 I’d say he stands quite a bit better than a 29% chance of winning.
Value Is EverythingShould be an informative week with New London (chester) and Walk of Stars (lingfield) both set to run
“Bloody good Guineas, imo Luxembourg would have won many renewals.”
He needed a Guineas like the one his sire won. I doubt Camelot would have won his year if there had been a top class miler in the field.
Agree he is a worthy favourite for Epsom. I suppose it depends what happens in the trials but I can see him getting well backed into a fair bit shorter than 5/2 on the day.
Your point about his sire went through my mind as I wrote that last post, CAS.
Value Is Everything“Regarding Goldspur Ken Pitterson does a column on ATR and he was not particularly complimentary about him as a physical specimen after Sandown”
I went to the pre-parade area to get a good look at Goldspur and a colt who hadn’t been that imposing an individual when I saw him at Epsom last year had made negligible physical progress to my eyes.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Jason weaver did a very good analysis of Luxembourgs race and he will be very hard to beat at Epsom. I can see him dropping down to ten furlongs after the Derby as I think that might be his optimal. I think he could certainly still be very competitive at a mile as the clicking of heels couldn’t have helped. The lads looked well chuffed with the run though so Epsom it is. Still gangly so probably grow a bit and strengthen up. Could be loads more to come and as a prep for Epsom they do say the guineas is the best Derby trial. We will know more after Chester. Changing of the guard could come into it
It will take something sensational in tbf Chester Vase, Lingfield Derby Trial or the Dante to even remotely threaten Luxembourg’s position as favourite for The Derby.
Both his pedigree and the way he ran on Saturday scream “1m4f” to me and I think he’s going to win The Derby easily.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"They’ll be hoping he doesn’t get drawn 1 like saxon warrior did
It’s still incredible how lucky adayar got last year getting that completely clean run down the inside that allowed him to win from the coffin box, he owes Ben Curtis beers for life for coming off the rail.
Saxon Warrior travelled a lot better than Luxembourg when racing at 1m, Mike.
Everything about Luxembourg shouts “mile and half”! to me too. Only on stamina sapping heavy ground would there be any doubt in my mind.He’ll be extremely difficult to beat if handling the track.
Surprised Luxemborg isn’t 6/4 now, let alone when the trials are all finished.
Value Is EverythingI doubt Luxembourg will be 6-4 once everyone sees the beast that is Walk Of Stars strutting his stuff on Saturday. ;o)
I didnt like walk of stars head carriage or the way he hung last time
Be interesting to see if that changes
The second also failed to frank his form despite being 30/100 in a longchamp listed race
He was a bit green on seasonal debut, didn’t know what to do once he hit the front. Connections are going to Lingfield for, what they (and me) hope, will be some valuable education, rather than running the flat track in the Dante which was the original intention.
Guys, New to the forum and really enjoy the views on all the topics. Just interested to read what your views are on Desert Crown for Sir Michael. I was at Nottingham when he won on debut and I was so impressed by the way he powered away in the final furlong. No idea if he has trained on, but timeform analysts are sure he will get the trip. Is this one under the radar?.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.