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He has a good will to win attitude which is something that is difficult to factor into figures and due to stay in racing next year so who knows where his rating will end up.
Let’s just enjoy watching him achieve it.
Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...“Well I think you’re doing yourself a disservice.
We disagree about loads of things, but I’ve got you down as a good judge overall who knows his stuff and my money would be on you making your betting pay long term.
No one’s paying you an actual salary to handicap horses but if you’re making your betting pay you’re employing yourself.
A long-term winner is no amateur”.————————————
I was talking about handicapping, not whether a punter wins overall or not.
I’ve used Timeform to make good enough profits over the years not to be worth as serious handicapping (and the time involved) like you’ve obviously put in Ian.
Using Timeform Race Passes means a punter can do his own – amateur – handicapping alongside and still be a “long term winner”.
Value Is EverythingLooks to me like Desert Crown has been given a revised OR of 123 with 3lb of that being ease of victory.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"The usual inflation with that organisation – they’re worse than Germany in the 1920s, or, err, the UK….NOW.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I think the real reason why they stopped publishing the annuals wasn’t that it was no longer economically viable but because every horse would be rated 110 or more on the flat and 160 or higher over jumps at this rate.
Thanks for supplying those numbers, btw, I find it interesting to see how these various organisations rate these races then compare them with my own.
I rate bare form and I had come up with the exact same figure for Hoo Ya Mal as the BHA, but I only have Desert Crown on 120, though unsurprisingly with a +.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Am interested to know what you rate Yoo Ya Mai and Westover, Ian?
Value Is EverythingWhat do you rate or what do you think Timeform should have rated the first three, Glad’?
Value Is EverythingI actually feel sorry for anybody trying to rate this derby. The winner no doubt is a very good horse but is some way below the best winners. I dont think he is at the level of golden horn australia or camelot. Even beaten horses like cracksmam and japan to me were better. Clearly far too many ran below par as was shown when the second is 150/1. Time may show that the first three were really good but im not convinced.Well know soon enough when they run against their elders. Thats the beauty of racing. Weve no idea how much horses can suddenly improve.
It was only his third run in the Derby. Derby winners aren’t usually meant to win Derbys after only 2 runs apparently so one would expect he will only get better as the summer goes on. He could only beat what was put in front of him on the day.
The same connections had Kris Kin who won the Derby on his 4th start. He didn’t get better, possibly a bit moody.
Different circumstances there perhaps as they hadn’t realised he was good till he won at Chester. Improvement is not always a given though.Same trainer had Workforce who like Desert Crown won the Derby on his third start and went on to win the Arc.
Strangely Workforce also won the Derby from a big priced horse, 100/1 shot First Sight.
Value Is EverythingHe also had Shergar, who never even made it to Paris after a catastrophic trip to sunny Doncaster, but I think Stoute’s learned a bit since those days.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Nashwan didn’t do too badly after beating the second Terimon (a 500/1 shot) with similar ease.
Terimon went on to win the International Stakes.
…Albeit it is the 25/1 shot Westover should have been second with more luck in running. Suspect he will go on to better things too. Currently 15/8 fav for the Irish Derby ahead of Stone Age. Have backed Westover for the Leger @ 9/2.
Timeform rate Hoo Ya Mal 120, Westover 124p. His trainer Ralph Beckett’s previous St Leger was rated 124 (121 + rhe mares 3 lb allowance) for winning the Leger.
Value Is EverythingShergar had double the runs of Desert Crown going into the Derby.
Kris Kin had one more than DC before his.Kris Kin’s winning performance was not rated as highly as Desert Crown’s and was beaten by two (better) bloody good horses in the King George in Alamshar and Sulumani and then another two in the Arc – Dalakhani and Doyen. So I’d say Kris Kin did as well as expected – at least in the rest of his three year old career.
Value Is EverythingI’m baffled as to how he’s already being dismissed as an ordinary derby winner. It may well be that the form falls apart with the also rans doing nothing but he won wit( such ease that it’s either that, in that case, he has to prove it again somewhat or the form does get franked (more likely) which nails him as well above average
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