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Can’t rule him out – good value for his OR of 116 based on his seven-length demolition job of Hoo Ya Mal (105) at Newmarket.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I would say that given how keen he was its unlikely hoo yah mal ran to his mark in that race
Which makes the 116 look a bit on the generous side
Fair comment, though he did win quite easily.
I haven’t backed him – I’m not sure looking at his pedigree he will be suited by stepping up to 1m4f.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Yes he’s out of an oasis dream mare so far from guaranteed
One of the big questions for me is will desert crown stay?
Loads of speed on the dams side
He clocked a furlong a fraction above 11 seconds in the Dante which is very fast, will a horse that fast stay 12f or could he be a roaring lion type?
I’d also be worried about the way he hung to his right, he does that at Epsom He will be hanging into the camber which will slow him down
I wouldn’t be surprised if he did what roaring lion did, win the Dante get outstayed in the Derby and then win the eclipse
“One of the big questions for me is will desert crown stay?”
Desert Crown’ mum has produced winners over 1 mile 3 and 1 mile 4. The dad we know about. I’d be surprised if he didn’t stay.
Those two horses were 70 rated yaks though Mike
The other two horses she’s produced had more ability and were quicker
Almost all of the best horses the damsire produced were sprinters and milers.
And he seems to have inherited a good bit of speed
There is obviously a very real chance that he is just an exceptional horse and will be able to carry that speed over 12f
If he does I suspect we have the Arc winner on our hands
Anthony Van Dyck had a good bit of speed on the dam side I seem to recall, but Galileo helped him with the necessary stamina. If the dam side don’t do it with Desert Crown, the sire probably will.
Desert Crown won the Dante going away and might, like Golden Horn, be a colt who isn’t necessarily bred to stay 1m4f but does.
However, he’s a short enough price and I see plenty of speed and no quality stamina on the dam’s side of his pedigree.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Its a very tricky derby as usual. Bluegrass to me is the key. He was last down the straight and ran on really well suggesting that he will be a leger horse. He also was keeping the distance with himself and the winner roughly the same suggesting to me that it was that rapid furlong that put the race to bed. I do suspect dc will struggle to stay a truly run derby and im sure aidens horses will ensure this will happen. Im not sure star of india will stay and may end up in the eclipse. Changing of the guard will stay all right but i suspect will make the running. United nations to me is the joker. Hes improving rapidly and improved for the step up at lingfield. Westover is also being overlooked. To me its stone ages race to lose and will desert crown be able to pass him. We will soon find out. Cue a 25 to 1 winner.🤣
18 declared – United Nations not among the 18.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"11.5 Nations Pride at Betfair Exchange seems fair to me – on my numbers he’s only got a pound to find with the favourite
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"“Those two horses were 70 rated yaks though Mike
The other two horses she’s produced had more ability and were quicker
Almost all of the best horses the damsire produced were sprinters and milers.
And he seems to have inherited a good bit of speed”.————————–
The sire of Desert Crown is Nathaniel who although fully effective at 1m2f, stayed 1m4f extremely well and was expected to stay even further had he been given the chance. At one point ante-post favourite for the St Leger.
Sire of all Desert Crown’s siblings that I can see is Archimpenko who was best at 1m to 1m2f.
The dam-sire Green Desert “Almost all of the best horses the damsire produced were sprinters and milers”, has very little to do with it when the dam herself Desert Berry showed little of that outright speed. Her three races (two at 1m2f) winning the third at 1m. The dam Green Desert was mated with in order to produce Desert Berry was Foreign Language (by miler Distant View) who also stayed a mile well…
So The dam’s side of the pedigree is of a miler.
When mated with the 1m – 1m2f Archimpenko she produced:
Flying Thunder – Effected from 7f to 1m.
Cu Chulainn – Best form in a 1m3f maiden.
Capla Crusader – Effective from 1m to 1m2f.
Rose Berry – Effective from 5f to (admittedly only on her last of 40 starts) 7f.With Desert Crown’s siblings, Rose Berry is a bit of a standout as far as speed / stamina limitations go. Fact she wore a hood for the vast majority of starts suggests she was a more up-tight individual – types that tend not to stay as far.
S0 with Archimpenko as the sire Desert Berry’s foals are pretty much mile to mile and a quarter horses – therefore as far as stamina goes taking after their sire.
With the difference between Archimpenko and Nathaniel as his sire – although not absolutely certain – I’d expect Desert Crown to stay further than any of Desert Berry’s other foals… And – if taking after their sire as much as his siblings – is very likely to stay 1m4f… Especially with how he settled in the Dante and when taking into account the trainer is one of the best in the business at settling his horses.
Value Is EverythingThe other Nathaniel’s out of Green Desert mares who have an official rating of 80+ (there are only three) all recorded their highest OR at 1m 4f or greater.
Extremely small sample but cause for a bit of confidence that the fav will stay.Sir Michael seems confident and the stats appear to back him up.
Of the last 40 Dante & Musidora winners beaten at Epsom how many
failed to stay but would have been good enough?. Roaring Lion
of course but no others in my betting lifetime.
History is suggesting that quality is the main issue for the
York winners.
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