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On a line through bluegrass same form as piz badle so still not sure he should be so short. Looked a bunch of non stayers as bluegrass was last then passed most of the field. Don’t think it changes that much to the Derby picture. I suspect its who handles Epsom the best. I’d imagine Stone age will lie up with the pace behind changing of the guard and probably a pacemaker then will kick on at the three furlong pole. If he gets the rail will take some stopping.
Also it’s who comes on the most from their last run. Pizza badle must come into the reckoning. Dante winners have flattered to decieve crecently.Will desert Crown change that. Looks a belter of a race. My one worry for desert crown is inexperience especially if its tactical.Was it just me or did he drift a bit right handed today? Started off fairly in the middle and then wandered off to his right before Kingscote got him straight again. Probably greenness but I wouldn’t want to see that in a horse prior to Epsom with the hustle and bustle and the big crowd and then there is the course itself. The other thing is the jockey. Some people are not bothered at all who is riding, others are the polar opposite. I’d be in the middle myself. If the horse is good enough and a lot better than its opposition it’ll win whoever is on top but if its closely matched on ability or the race is very tactical then of course jockeyship comes into play. I did some digging as I suspected he didn’t have many big race wins. Kingscote has been around the block for a while now and he’s got 2x Group 1’s on his CV, Havanna Grey and Brown Panther. If the horse is good enough it probably won’t matter but I’d rather have a Moore or Dettori or Buick if it gets messy.
The time looks good vs the Middleton but the finishing speed %’s tell the story there 105.84% for Desert Crown which I think is a bit quicker than par, they crawled in the Middleton, Lilac Road came home 113.74% which is much quicker than par and partly why the time was so much slower than the Dante.
“If the horse is good enough it probably won’t matter but I’d rather have a Moore or Dettori or Buick if it gets messy.”
Hence my earlier comment about Kingscote keeping the ride. I hope he does but I do not think it would be the greatest surprise in the history of racing if he got jocked off. Mr “Everyone Look At Me” Dettori does not have an obvious ride lined up, unless he is pencilled in for Changingoftheguard.
Marquand was jocked off English King in favour of Dettori, although that was always likely given his owner’s link to Dettori via Stradivarius.
I was more impressed with Stone Age than Desert Crown.
I rate Desert Crown as high as 117 on form but only 109 on time today.
Given he’s 2/1 forumites are entitled to put his credentials under the microscope, but I think he will be ok on the day at Epsom.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Is it just me but does stone age look so reminiscent of reference point. Relentless galloper who i think will be really hard to peg back if he gets a clear run in the derby. Looking back at his second in france last year he was overtaking the winner a few strides after the line. Love these type of frontrunning horses. Teenoso was similar as well.
Slip Anchor and Reference Point made all in The Derby.
Teenoso didn’t – like Shergar he sat handy and was sent on early in the straight.
But, while a mudlover at three, Lester Piggott did pretty much make all on Teenoso in the King George on quick ground the following year, Piggott setting out to make it such a stern test it wasn’t until Swinley Bottom that His Honour, Sun Princess’s pacemaker, was able to briefly get by him.
I like Stone Age loads – I’ve taken 3/1 (think he’ll go bigger now tbh) – but my numbers tell me Desert Crown has the slight edge on him as it stands and IMO has the greater scope for improvement.
Should be a great race.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Teenoso indeed didnt lead from the front in the derby but kicked on at the top of the straight iirc. He led for virtually all the king george. Dont think he was a mudlover as such just liked a little ease in the ground. Im sure the king george was on goodish ground. Im not sure weve seen the ceiling of stone ages abilities and who knows how much he will improve for the extra two furlongs. I hope he does go out a bit then ill be increasing my bet considerably. It will be a case of catch me if you can. I honestly cant see him getting caught if he handles the camber. As aiden loves to say hes a very high cruising speed and im not sure desert crown will match him on that score. All about oponions of course A few irish experts are tipping star of india to swoop late. Whats the odds one other of aidens swoops late like wings of eagles.
Checked the going on teenosos four year old career and he ran on good going in france then won the king george on good to firm setting the second fastest time in the history of the race presumbly behind grundy. Just goes to show that horses can,sometimes,defy what we thought of them.
I was there when Teenoso won the King George.
Great ride from Piggott and terrific effort on the ground from the 4yo, who had won The Derby on a different surface the previous year.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"“Whats the odds one other of aidens swoops late like wings of eagles.”
Or makes all, like Serpentine. 🤔
I think the front two in the betting are both thrive at 1m4f and both set a pretty good standard, form wise, so I’m not expecting a surprise this year.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Ian, I am biased to Desert crown, any reason you can see why
he may not act on the course. I seen him at Nottingham, and he was. “Big lump” last autumn and he seems to have filled out.Unless already proven on Epsom Downs, or at a similar track like Lingfield Park or Brighton (but no Classic trial there any more) or Chester at a push as it’s at least constantly on the turn, there is always a slight question mark about horses going to Epsom.
But I think it’s overplayed.
A horse with a high level of form is likely to travel well within itself for most of the race and that helps it handle the track.
I’d say more horses handle Epsom than don’t.
There are two ways of rating the Dante – through OR 112 Royal Patronage in which case Desert Crown is clearly good enough already to win a bang average Derby, or through third-placed Bluegrass which means the form is no better than various other trials.
But I see no reason why Royal Patronage hasn’t run to his best and Desert Crown has beaten him comprehensively.
And this is only Desert Crown’s second run and his trainer has plenty of form for landing The Derby, including taking the Dante route to Epsom.
I know it’s boring, but I can’t see beyond the front two in the betting – Stone Age won well at Leopardstown and will presumably lead or sit handy at Epsom then kick on early in the straight and looks the only danger to me.
But I think Desert Crown will pick him off in the last two furlongs.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I would never worry about Epsom for any horse if connections decide to run. What examples are there of fancied horses not handling the track in the Derby and it was predicted beforehand?
Desert Crown if the going is fast, Stone Age if the going is soft.
“Desert Crown if the going is fast, Stone Age if the going is soft.”
Ryan Moore: “The last time I rode him (Stone Age) was on heavy ground in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere and he didn’t like it. It was nice to get him on some good ground.”
Agree the “will it handle Epsom” thing is overplayed.
For modern racegoers, doesn’t it derive from Dancing Brave getting beaten? Partly caused by him hanging down the camber when asked for his effort before straightening up and only just failing to haul back the winner.
Personally I think it was the doubt about him staying that contributed more to his defeat. If he had been ridden as if he was a certain stayer, I believe he would have won.
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