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Derby 2020

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  • #1492835
    Cork All Star
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    • Total Posts 537

    It is also worth noting that English King got very warm before the race, down his neck and he sweated badly between his legs. His jink certainly did not help but I still think Dettori was much too far back. He should have been placed at least.

    Serpentine may well be the best but is he that good? He only managed to finish fifth in a maiden on 12th June, yet just over three weeks later he wins the Derby by five and a half lengths! Even allowing for an unusual year, that simply does not seem credible to me. And if Coolmore knew he was that good, Moore would have been on him.

    #1492838
    Cork All Star
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    • Total Posts 537

    It is well worth a look at the sectional times on the Racing Post site. They confirm Serpentine won the race with the pace he injected into the race between the 5f and 3f poles when he was freewheeling downhill. They let him get too far clear.

    The fastest horse in the final 3f was English King, 2 seconds quicker than Serpentine. However, he simply had too much ground to make up.

    Was English King poorly positioned? Or was he just too slow to get into the race when it mattered and just bought easy lengths late in the race? Given how strongly he finished, they have to go to Doncaster.

    The evidence shows the other jockeys failed to cover Emmet McNamara’s race winning move in the middle of the race. Simon Holt called it right in commentary when he said Serpentine was 12 lengths clear and not stopping.

    #1492841
    Frenchy15
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1307

    Comes down to interpretation of trends but it was a listed/grp3 derby quality and we should’ve treated it as such.

    The winner was staring us in the face actually when you consider the first 5 in the market were breaking solid trends and stats to win

    #1492845
    mickeyjp
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    • Total Posts 676

    All the chasing pack were way too far back. The fact that they couldn’t get past the second or third shows this. That or they weren’t good enough. No way English king beats Santiago or serpentine in the Leger. He’s a group 2 horse at best I’d say. Time will tell if the winner is a very good horse or not.

    #1492847
    jackh1092jackh1092
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    • Total Posts 2850

    100% agree Krypton.

    While I would probably rather just see what English King can do over 12f, I disagree that there’s “no way”. I’d side with the chasing pack were way too far back.

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1492859
    Illavim
    Participant
    • Total Posts 103

    Well done Emmet, rode the race perfectly to suit his horse. Some of the other jockeys could learn a thing or two from him.
    Interesting info from sectionals, and good interviews with connections on Luck on Sunday.

    #1492862
    Clints
    Participant
    • Total Posts 191

    Well done winners.

    As others have already mentioned, Serpentine definitely wasnt a pacemaker as he won in the same fashion lto and which is why his odds were only 25/1.

    I agree it was a rather disappointing race but as the classic saying goes “you can only beat what’s in front of you” and for Serpentine that was the winning post!

    Time will tell how good the form is.

    #1492864
    ham
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    • Total Posts 2568

    Cork, i seen the writeup on the sectionals, was there not only a .12 sec difference between mogul and EK? i dont like that stat on the last 3f it favours the pack too much and forgets the winner, he wasnt all out in the end, that was clear for me, he still couldnt get placed, the two infront of him did not give him that much rope

    Not to mention EK and everyone else were fully at it 3f – 3 1/2f out,

    The move he made on the bend was unmatched, they all tried to do it but no one picked up like him, if he was closer to the pack and did it for me he would only have went further away.

    Thought it was both a great performance from the horse and a perfect ride to use that speed round the downhill bend

    Wouldnt have backed him pre-race but im sure given the dim view of the outcome youll get a nice price on him against the same field next time and ill be backing him.

    #1492870
    Ghost of Rob VGhost of Rob V
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    • Total Posts 742

    This Derby was like a WTF cross between the 1986 Derby and Frankel’s 2000 Guineas. I think most of yesterday’s jockeys came down with Starkeyonavirus.

    #1492874
    Cork All Star
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    • Total Posts 537

    I do not really have a dim view, I think he is a good horse who got an excellent ride. I believe there were a lot of similarly good horses in the race who got moderate tactical rides.

    Serpentine may well beat them again but he will not beat them in the same manner. They will never give him that much rope again.

    It is amusing that on the sectional, Serpentine ran the slowest final 3 furlongs in the entire field. It did not matter – he won the race earlier.

    He is good but he is not a superstar. The only one on display yesterday ran an hour and a quarter earlier!

    #1492886
    ham
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    • Total Posts 2568

    The sectionals epsom posted where also innacurate apparantly so theres that too

    #1492915
    TheTinMan87
    Participant
    • Total Posts 138

    I’ll leave the full sectional debrief to the maestro Simon Rowlands on Monday on ATR because he’s far more qualified than me to interpret the data but what I can see just looking at the basic numbers is that no matter what you think about the Derby, the winner from a pure time perspective would have finished around 2.5L behind Love in the Oaks, she’d be entitled to 3lbs in weight which is worth another 2L at the trip as well. That said Love from a sectional perspective has run much closer to the par for Epsom than Serpentine who is flat out at the finish, his closing 3F the slowest in the Derby and not only that slower than Love, Ennistymon, Frankly Darling and Queen Daenerys in the Oaks. So with that in mind, considering how inefficiently he’s run his race, his time isn’t bad at all and he must be a decent horse at least. That isn’t to say I think he’d have won the Derby regardless of how it was run, but the point is who are we to say he wouldn’t have won the race if it had been run different, the point is it wasn’t and the jockey took full advantage of the circumstances. It is wholly unsatisfactory as an outcome because it leaves us none the wiser as to where we stand with these 3 year old middle distance colts in terms of their ability relative to one another let alone to their elders.

    #1492972
    Frenchy15
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    • Total Posts 1307

    The track was favouring front runners most of the day, the first 3 in the derby were the first 3 about 7f out. Summer romance was front running, the handicap winner was very prominent also. Serpentine maybe the best horse in the race still though because the rest of the field is crap at 12f. 8-10f races this year are very interesting some really good horses, but that was very poor in quality and utterly forgettable as a race. Don’t agree with the EK comment about the start whoever said that. He jinked slightly to the left, so what? Still finished 5th. It was a completely different test for him. lingfield was super fast ground and they went off super quick. His RPR best after 4 runs is 113. That is listed quality and he may very well be only as a good as that. Mogul is we still carrying a little bit in fairness but he’s still well short of top quality

    #1492980
    jackh1092jackh1092
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    • Total Posts 2850

    Given how this race was run, i think you’re jumping the gun here big time. Sea The Stars wouldn’t have caught Serpentine if ridden like EK, Mogul or any of the others Frenchy. That is a fact.

    https://www.attheraces.com/blogs/sectional-spotlight/05-July-2020/breaking-down-the-derby-and-oaks

    Simon Rowland’s summary FWIW.

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1492983
    colosus68
    Participant
    • Total Posts 150

    Guys

    I have watched a lot of racing in my days and I just hate races run like that.
    Most enthusiasts want to see a few horses in with chances on the run from the bend.
    This Derby was over way out. Any good horse man knew they were gone.

    We all love a bit of action and we saw none in the Derby.

    I had no bet in it so was delighted with that.

    The sooner that race is forgotten the better.

    Dont get me wrong I am a very positive man but that race was a farce.

    Colosus

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