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Derby 2018

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  • #1362515
    GingertipsterGingertipster
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    so no doubt the official handicapper is wrong, I am wrong and the whole of the rest of the world is wrong. If Dee Ex Bee fails again and is dropped further it will be because there was something wrong with him. The Epsom race will always be the one where he ran to form, despite it being notorious for not suiting plenty of horses.

    There are two reasons a handicapper brings a horse’s mark down, Steve. One is if thinking the horse no longer capable of the form it once produced. If in the handicapper’s opinion Dee Ex Bee is no longer capable (after three runs) of his Epsom form, then he would be right to bring the horse’s mark down. ie As I said, it could be temperament and not race conditions that is stopping DXB from showing his form. So if that’s the handicapper’s opinion then he’d be right to drop him now. However, Dee Ex Bee is yet to have the same conditions – a truly run race at 12f (or a 14f race that isn’t necessarily truly run) with give in the ground – since Epsom. Therefore imo it is premature to drop his mark. Once having the opportunity of racing under suitable conditions of course his rating should be lowered if failing to perform to his Derby rating.

    The other reason a handicapper can bring a mark down is if thinking the original valuation of form was wrong. You appeared to believe the rating for finishing second in the Derby should be the “steady” 110. That’s what I thought was wrong. If the steady 110 is not your assessment then disregard the next paragraph. I’ll include it anyway because it shows my thinking to my previous post.

    Bringing DXB’s rating down to as low as 110 does not imo fit in with the rest of the race. In horse racing form there are indeed many outliers, but imo to be one there must be a reason to be an outlier. eg One held up in an overly strongly run race or ridden prominently in a slowly run race or making its move at any time when the pace is weakest – can all mean a horse achieves a position/rating higher than its actual ability. I saw no possible reason for DXB to be an outlier in the Derby. That doesn’t mean there wasn’t one. Please, if you know why he should not be rated as being 1 1/2 lengths inferior to Masar; I’ll be glad to hear it. If there is no reason then to bring Dee Ex Bee’s rating down to 110 the rating of Masar must imo also come down. Because you are saying Dee Ex Bee’s original rating is wrong, Masar’s must in turn be wrong. In contrast, had you been claiming DXB is no longer capable of that rating then Masar’s rating could remain unchanged.

    Epsom not suiting some horses has nothing to do with it, it did suit both Dee Ex Bee and Masar.

    value is everything
    #1362516
    GingertipsterGingertipster
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    • Total Posts 26551

    I am happy with the assessment I gave. The Official Handicapper and The Racing Post both awarded Dee Ex Bee less than he achieved at Epsom. I do not feel I have misled forum readers with my honest opinion and what’s more Saxon Warrior not reaching the level I had hoped for has zero relevance, other than being a dig at me in an attempt to devalue my input.

    You should be happy with your assessment, it is your assessment after all. If you have misled forum members am sure it was unintentional.

    When someone once held such a lofty opinion of a horse and now has a fairly low opinion, it does show how much their own opinion of the horse has changed. So imo is relevent.

    I do wonder if our subconcious minds are trying to devalue form if we have a bad result betting-wise in a race. Just as – as you know – I backed the first, second and third in the Derby. Need to be aware I might do the opposite. Got to fight our subconscious sometimes. It’s not a dig, just an observation. As punters we all need the abiliy to change our opinions from time to time when results show our original thoughts were probably wrong… And should be proud of doing so. That’s not happened to me with DXB yet, doesn’t mean to say it won’t given time. :whistle:

    value is everything
    #1362538
    GingertipsterGingertipster
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    • Total Posts 26551

    My worry is that Dee Ex Bee’s best win was in a 12 grand race at Epsom on heavy and he finished in front of 3 non stayers and a slow boat at Epsom again in the Derby.

    Wouldn’t worry me, Steve. Can’t see why Dee Ex Bee’s “best win” matters, when it’s obvious he’s improved quite a bit in finishing second in the Derby. His “best win“ning form isn’t good enough to win the St Leger; but the form of being second in the Derby is good enough to win an average St Leger. My main worry is if conditions on the day suit.

    value is everything
    #1362564
    jackh1092jackh1092
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    • Total Posts 2312

    I’ve read these, but to be honest it was on a flight this morning at 5am- so i might repeat some of your views etc. but i will have my say on DXB.

    While i don’t think the 3yo’s right now are a monster bunch, i don’t think DXB has been done any favours at all with the way he’s been campaigned- to be fair this happens regularly with Johnston as he runs them very often, and i am not sure that suits top class horses as well as handicap types. It’s strange that MJ has ran him 3 times since The Derby yet comes out with this after Goodwood:

    4Aug18 Goodwood (12GF, RPR 111)
    Dee Ex Bee just doesn’t have the gears on fast ground over a mile and a half. They haven’t gone that quick, but straight out of the gate he’s been on and off the bridle. Silvestre said when he wanted to make some use of him at the top of the hill, he wasn’t quick enough to get into it. More cut and more stamina will give him a chance. The St Leger is still on. We wouldn’t go to the Voltigeur if the weather stays like this, but we’ll leave him in it if it comes up soft. Otherwise it could be straight to the Leger. He’s never disgraced himself even in conditions that aren’t ideal. Silvestre said there’s a big one in him when conditions are right – Mark Johnston, trainer.

    Has he only realised this since Goodwood? Not saying i expected him to run as badly the 4 times since The Derby but i’d imagine he had a fair idea of his ideal conditions. Maybe he thought he was just better than he is?

    I personally would much rather take the DXB from his first 3 runs of the season than his last. I think over 1m4 he needs a truly run race, and the last two races haven’t quite been that. That’s risky as it’s altogether possible he won’t come back as good due to being raced a lot in conditions he obviously hasn’t enjoyed as much.

    I think he’s still in with a shout in the Leger and good to soft or worse would give him a better shout again.

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1362576
    GingertipsterGingertipster
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    • Total Posts 26551

    You’re right that Mark Johnston runs his horses more often than most trainers in conditions not thought condusive to their best conditions, Jack. Whether that is going or distance or both. Agree with most of what you say. Personally, if running at the meeting at all I wouuld’ve liked Dee Ex Bee to have gone for the Goodwood Cup.

    Before the Gordon I saw an interview (think it was with MJ’s son). They apparently thought beforehand DXB may well need give in the ground to produce his very best, but it wasn’t a definite. Horses can win without being at their very best. They hadn’t intended to run DXB again on good-firm but because so few runners were declared they thought might as well give it a go. Which imo makes fair sense.

    Timeform now rate Cross Counter just 2 lbs below Masar and ahead of DXB’s Derby performance. So even if DXB had been at his Derby best Cross Counter would (in their view) still have won. But that’s in hindsight. Had Cross Counter not improved a good deal (from the time before in an Ascot handicap to Goodwood’s Gordon) then DXB’s below par Goodwood run would’ve still been at a level good enough to win the race. So in many ways that justifies running.

    Like Ireland and France, DXB was soon pushed along and there is a possibility of temperament, ie repeated racing on going a horse dislikes can indeed leave a mark. However, I think the probability is he’s ok. Seemed to me still trying hard at the end of the race. Most likely needs both more give in the ground and stiffer test of stamina; possibility just one of those two things will be enough. ie For three year olds 1m4f in early June is a fair test of stamina. Some horses will be effective in a truly run 1m4f with give in the ground in early June because it puts the emphasis on stamina… But need either further or softer ground (or both) as the year progresses; Dee Ex Bee seems one of them.

    value is everything
    #1362580
    stevecautionstevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8280

    Epsom not suiting some horses has nothing to do with it, it did suit both Dee Ex Bee and Masar.

    I am not talking about those two. It’s beaten horses who did not do their best at the track, that can inflate the reputation of those who DID handle the track that I am talking about.

    That condescending style of yours does little to endear you to anyone. You bore me. “Mr Stick To My Own thread” Your word cannot be trusted.

    That’s your lot. No more replies, it’s just repetitive and boring. Yawnsville.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1362587
    GingertipsterGingertipster
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    • Total Posts 26551

    That condescending style of yours does little to endear you to anyone. You bore me. “Mr Stick To My Own thread” Your word cannot be trusted.

    LOL You’re confusing me with someone…

    When Jack welcomed you back to the forum in the 2 year old thread, you responded with:
    “I’ll only be posting on this thread on occasion Jack and only then until I can be confirmed as a Cat fosterer”.

    …And as I said, I am keeping to my own thread on the Tipping And Research section where I posted that.

    I am not talking about those two. It’s beaten horses who did not do their best at the track, that can inflate the reputation of those who DID handle the track that I am talking about.

    Which horses are you on about Epsom not suiting? :unsure: Roaring Lion and Saxon Warrior acted at Epsom, they just didn’t run to Eclipse form because they didn’t quite stay. 5th placed Hazapour blatantly didn’t stay either after travelling really well through the majority of the race – so can’t see that he didn’t act at Epsom. So are you talking about Delano Roosevelt not acting at Epsom – beaten 11 1/2 lengths in 6th? :unsure: If you are talking about any of the above then reputations of Masar and Dee Ex Bee have not been inflated as you put it; because their ratings already take in to account the third, fourth, fifth sixth etc were all below their now bests (and are already rated as such). That’s why I said Epsom not suiting horses had nothing to do with Dee Ex Bee and Masar’s rating.

    I’m only expressing a point of view about horse racing that is often the opposite to your point of view. That’s all. Get over it. I am entitled to an opinion just as much as you are. Stop throwing your toys out of the pram and accusing me of all sorts every time I challenge your opinion.

    All TRFers want to express opinions on this discussion forum. Personally I enjoy intelligent discussion with anyone having a different opinion to mine, as I believe most do too to a large extent. It saddens me that you don’t, Steve. Only wanting to express your opinions without allowing people to disagree with you – is not a discussion. Stop pontificating.

    value is everything
    #1362589
    GingertipsterGingertipster
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    • Total Posts 26551

    That’s your lot. No more replies, it’s just repetitive and boring. Yawnsville.

    Is that a promise? LOL

    Yes, all this accusing me of getting at you every time I respectfully challenge your racing opinion is indeed repetitive and boring… And every time I need to defend myself from this abuse is am sure repetitive and boring to everyone else too. We agree on something! :yahoo:
    I don’t want to see you go from this forum, Steve; truthfully I enjoy reading what you have to say about horses even when we disagree. Actually, the fact we have both backed Calyx, Quorto and Too Darn Hot for next year’s Classics shows we agree on more than you’d think. But why mods can’t just delete any post where your mood/paranoia gets the better of you – is beyond me. It would stop all this boring, repetitive stuff and return the threads to their proper subject matter.

    I’ve had enough of your abuse. :bye:

    value is everything
    #1362590
    GingertipsterGingertipster
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    • Total Posts 26551

    Bye Steve. ;-)

    value is everything
    #1362635
    KrisKris
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    • Total Posts 468

    I’m hoping to see more improvement tonight from Christmas, when he runs at Tipperary.

    I don’t like trying to pick out Classic horses the year before, as I think so much of it is guesswork until the latter stages of the season, but I thought I would throw his hat into the ring. He would have to be a slow burner, as his feeble debut, was only erased last time, but I thought that that win was full of promise. Thankfully he isn’t listed and I won’t have to lose any money right this minute.

    #1362665
    stevecautionstevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8280

    Goodness me. What a load of twisted rubbish. Three posts required on one subject and all of them edited.

    That’s an unhealthy obsession right there. :wacko:

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1362840
    GingertipsterGingertipster
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    • Total Posts 26551

    Paranoia

    value is everything
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