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Did we see the Derby winner at Navan today? He was mighty impressive albeit on tacky ground.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
The Ghurka was impressive but the field was strung out like a Cheltenham race.
I decided to oppose Aasheq as I felt he was poor value and that his price was based on running behind the Derby favourite. At 2/1 The Ghurka looked the call.
Any US Army Ranger fans looking for a form boost were sorely disappointed as Aasheq was totally slaughtered in fifth place yesterday. Very little easing of the favourite took place in the aftermath and he remains a joke price for Epsom.
Claudio Monteverdi had beaten The Ghurka more than six lengths last time and although he is a more experienced colt, he is also green looking still. I feel he may also improve stepped up in distance and if The Ghurka is a Derby horse then Claudio Monteverdi surely needs considering as well.
The Ghurka seems the one for money of the two, with Claudio Monteverdi’s price very confused across the board from 40/1 down as low as 14/1.
It’s early days really but Idaho remains the one I like of Aidan’s at the moment and at the odds he is.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Claudio Monteverdi runs Wednesday. The 40’s on him are standout with betbright, who were a standout 33/1 on The Ghurka until this morning when I tried to place a bet they quickly changed to 16’s.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Absolutely Stevie, CM has to be considered after what The Gurkha did on Sunday. The Gurkha was a huge eye catcher that first time and it would be no surprise to me if he ended up being Group 1 material. He seemed very uncomplicated, travelled like a dream and quickened nicely on that ground. Apparently Ryan was very impressed. My worry is that he won’t be aimed at Epsom. In the immediate aftermath Aiden was talking about the French Guineas and saying that whilst he thought the horse would get 10f he wouldn’t be sure about 12. I guess time will tell and he has so may arrows to fire that a pecking order might bot be known for a little while. Totally agree though that US Army Ranger is a ridiculous price. Will be looking closely at the race on Wednesday hey Nath!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Claudio Monteverdi is 5/4 for Wednesday on the early shows. Gosden’s filly So Mi Dar is clear second best at 4/1.
O’Brien had 4 winners at Dundalk this evening, albeit mostly hot favourites, so the yard seem to be getting there.
With the ground very testing at Epsom and the fitness and experience of the favourite allied to proven abilty on the going as advantages, it will be a tough ask for So Mi Dar on her debut this season.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The ghurka was indeed a very impressive winner but the way the fav dropped out suggests it was very testing. To me Bhutan looks the most likely candidate from ballydoyle with cm and the ghurka very close behind. Cannot understand why the fav is so short and the others are double and treble the price. He must be burning up the gallops at ballydoyle. He does look like he will get better the further he goes. Ill wait until his next run before making my mind up.
I also like Bhutan most out of AOB’s bunch of maiden winners. The thing that worries me the most though is that he weirdly enough has no big entries whatsoever. I still had a tinyish punt on him for the Derby, but will need him to absolutely bolt up in a trial.
Coming back to the The Gurkha race, I don’t think too many conclusions can be drawn from it. There was the biggest pace bias I think I’ve ever seen during that Navan meeting. If you go and watch the replays again, you’ll see that every single winner got the front rail position and quite a few of these bolted up in similar fashion to The Gurkha. Meanwhile, those who found themselves in Aasheq’s position struggled badly. I would be surprised if that was the latter true showing. That’s not to say The Gurkha isn’t a quality racehorse in the making. I do actually think he’s a very promising horse, purely based on his debut run, but that Navan meeting was a particularly weird one.
Too early to tell and a derby full of bad ones at the moment. US Army Ranger looks the most likeliest winner at the moment and looks to be an out and our derby horse.
Claudio Monteverdi was woeful today and there’s no way he will be turning up for the Derby.
It’s the same story every year with these winners in the mud being backed for everything under the sun and then the reality sets in on better ground as better horses emerge.
It must be a blow to The Gurkha fans to see their horse’s conqueror perform so moderately.
I’ve stuck few more quid on Idaho, as I believe he may be one of Aidan’s that actually improves for better ground going forward.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The form of the Irish maidens run on heavy going are always going to be misleading but I do feel Bhutan and the ghurka look progressive types. As I said before we will find out how they have progressed in their next runs.
Actually not bothered at all by CM’s run today Stevie as it makes it more likely that The Gurkha will be considered! I honestly think TG is a far better long term prospect than the one today so won’t be losing heart just yet.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Actually not bothered at all by CM’s run today Stevie as it makes it more likely that The Gurkha will be considered! I honestly think TG is a far better long term prospect than the one today so won’t be losing heart just yet.
Sort of Irish Logic there Joni, I would rather have seen the form boosted myself, but each to their own.
The Gurkha could be anything of course but for now he is a maiden winner on bottomless ground and the stable still have to show their Derrinstown, Chester and Dante hand. The Gurkha could still end up about the fifth string for Epsom and at current odds I see no value, with several questions still to answer on quality, ground, course and even if he will actually end up being a runner on the day still to answer.
I passed on Claudio Monteverdi at 40/1 for the Derby as I felt he probably had at least six stable mates ahead of him. Aidan stated that Claudio Monteverdi was running here because they had several contenders to fit into the other trials, but it seemed clear that he came here as the least regarded of his troops, for a race that plays no part in the Derby itself these days.
It will be interesting to see where the Gurkha appears next but I would be wary of others laying their markers down over the next few weeks and making the odds on The Gurkha look a bit questionable.
It will be interesting to see if something emerges because there is nothing really coming to the fore in either Guineas this season. Good luck
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
well the 7/4 Midterm didn’t last long for tomorrow’s classic trial 10/11 best price now(only two priced up)
Us Army Ranger now a best priced 5/1 🙂
Derby entries scheduled to make their respective debuts this week. Epsom bound, perhaps unlikely, but a couple for future reference:
Ezanak – D Weld – H H Aga Khan
Sea The Stars – Ebaza (Sinndar)
24th April – Gowran Park
Derby price 100/1Monarch – A P O’Brien – Tabor, Smith, Magnier
Galileo – Secret Garden (Danehill)
23rd April – Limerick // 24th April – Gowran Park x2
Derby price 66/1This guy is a machine. All he does is work out and pick winners. Talk about fit. You should see him without his shirt off, serious side of beef.
Houseofparliament very impressive just now at Dundalk. A massive boost to Bhutan’s form that. I must admit I’m sitting on a small ante-post on Bhutan for the Derby, a very small one unfortunately because he doesn’t hold an entry. Really hope today’s form boost will push Aidan to run him in a Derby trial, where he will hopefully bolt up leaving them with no choice but to send him to Epsom.
Btw, would be careful about backing The Gurkha. I reckon he will head to France, Poule D’essai-Jockey Club in all likeliness.
I took it that Aidan wasn’t sure The Ghurka would get a mile and a half. My own feeling on the colt and Claudio Monteverdi was that they were probably numbers 5 and 6 approximately in the Ballydoyle pecking order.
Bhutan’s form certainly got a good boost there and it will be interesting to see where that one goes next.
Midterm won today and did it well enough without looking startling. It’s not exactly a key race for the Derby in recent times. I would imagine he’ll be upped in grade next time to get more experience before the Derby itself but I see little value at about 6/1 for The Derby now, with several trials still to be run. I would rather watch him win like Shergar unbacked than take those odds.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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