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Sorry to sidetrack the thread.
At the time of writing I believe William Hill were top price on just five horses. Now, of the horses at 20/1 or under Sky Bet are top price on 7 horses, the same as William Hill.
Each to their own but most people do not back in the way you do. Most people would rather back a couple each-way rather than five or more horses win only. Most people I believe would be pretty foolish to be choosing to back with the only firm offering standard each-way terms.
I suspect rather than offer something different Hills feel they get away with screwing their less clued up punters.
Are they really “screwing their less clued up punters” by offering them bigger prices on far more horses Stilvi? 😆
Or is it just a case of the less clued up punters wrongly believing they’re getting screwed?According to Oddschecker Hills are still equal top price on 10 of the runners, that’s far more than any other bookmaker!
I have not got ANY problem with LOADS (the vast majority) of bookmakers offering shorter odds for more horses – for the “benefit” of punters more concerned about the place part of their bets than win part. I find it a shame you and others believe one type of punter should have EVERY bookmaker betting in YOUR favour.
Betting to smaller over-rounds is NOT only in favour of punters like me who want to bet more than one horse WIN ONLY. It is in favour of EVERY WIN ONLY punter, because they have a better opportunity of backing their horse at a bigger price. Some punters do bet win only on outsiders too…
…BUT NOT ONLY THAT; sometimes (and I am among them) EACH WAY punters would rather take a BETTER price for the WIN part of the bet and accept the 1/5th the place – rather than take SHORTER odds with 1/4 odds for a place.
Value Is EverythingI have lumped on two against the field with sky bet playing 5 places. Wide open derby this year so have gone for double figure prices.
Deauville- 11/1 ew- Loved his trail, he looked professional, I think he will be ridden prominatlly again and should Finnish in the top 5.
MASSAAT- 16/1 ew- I’m willing to take the risk he will stay the trip and also Finnish in the top 5. He wasn’t stopping and ran on well in the 2000 Gs, he has a touch of class. 16-1 is to big
Happy punting!
I want to throw my money at a real outsider in this but history dictates that anything much over 7/1 doesn’t win but often places, so I’m going with CLOTH OF STARS today with an each way on Massaat and Algometer because I love grey horses…
Just enjoy the race.Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I don’t think that this year’s Derby is as Open as people might be thinking, 21 of the last 22 winners had won one or both of their previous 2 races, 7 horses this year fail on that trend. Another 2 drop off by not finishing in the first 3 places in their previous race, whereas all of the last 22 winners had done that. The last 17 winners have all had an SP of 8/1 or shorter, so keeping an eye on the odds might be a good thing and could reduce the final “trends list” to 2, 3 or 4.
I’m going for Cloth Of Stars each way, a question mark of whether he will get the distance but has been consistent and done well on a softer surface. Watching yesterday I got the feeling that it was quite wet around Tatt’s Corner and he could have the ability to make his move while others try to navigate the slippery surface.
If you’re backing each way, remember to shop around but be careful with some of the offers, i.e. first 5 places only pays 1/5th of the odds for a place whereas other pay a quarter for first 4. A tenner each way on a placed horse at 10/1 pays back £30 for 1/5th or £35 for a quarter odds. (The win part pays the same)
Good luck
Most open Derby I can remember. After changing my mind a good dozen of times since the field has been made official, I think I’m going to side with Deauville in this one. I quite fancy him to reverse the form with Wings of Desire. He was having his first run for a long time, had a fairly tough trip wide of the leader with no cover, and found himself in front for a very long time on that very long York run-in. If Spencer can get a good spot from the wide draw, I think he will be in with a big chance. I will probably have back-up bets on Harzand and Cloth of Stars as well.
That said, I definitely wouldn’t mind seeing US Army Ranger winning it. I think he’s the (only?) one potentially with superstar quality. I won’t be having massive bets, so my main hope is to see an above average winner of the race even though that doesn’t look incredibly likely beforehand.
I don’t think that this year’s Derby is as Open as people might be thinking, 21 of the last 22 winners had won one or both of their previous 2 races, 7 horses this year fail on that trend. Another 2 drop off by not finishing in the first 3 places in their previous race, whereas all of the last 22 winners had done that. The last 17 winners have all had an SP of 8/1 or shorter, so keeping an eye on the odds might be a good thing and could reduce the final “trends list” to 2, 3 or 4.
I’m going for Cloth Of Stars each way, a question mark of whether he will get the distance but has been consistent and done well on a softer surface. Watching yesterday I got the feeling that it was quite wet around Tatt’s Corner and he could have the ability to make his move while others try to navigate the slippery surface.
If you’re backing each way, remember to shop around but be careful with some of the offers, i.e. first 5 places only pays 1/5th of the odds for a place whereas other pay a quarter for first 4. A tenner each way on a placed horse at 10/1 pays back £30 for 1/5th or £35 for a quarter odds. (The win part pays the same)
Good luck
Oops !! I meant first 3 places paying 1/4 or first 4 places paying 1/5th.
Ended up backing three in the end, Wings of desire, cloth of stars and ulysses
fingers crossed
Ok I know it means nothing as they were being led around the stables, but watching the morning line today I thought Ulysses, Moonlight Magic and Deauville looked particularly good in their coats
Us Army Ranger didn’t impress me as much looks wise, but again was only a brief look I got of him and may be a different story in the parade ring
I do think having a good temperament is a huge advantage on the day, the crowd will be particularly excitable with it being such an open race and I think a few of these might just boil over, that’s the worry with Cloth of stars that he might get a bit sweaty, I think Wings of desire and Ulysses look particularly laid back and US Army Ranger also strikes me as being quite a relaxed type
my “mad money” is on Red Verdon to place at around 6/1 (33/1 the win).
owned and supplemented by Ronny Arculli (ex-Chairman of HKJC) and named to echo both his most famous horses:
River Verdon (only ever winner of the HK Triple Crown):
http://www.hkjc.com/english/racing/OtherHorse.asp?HorseNo=BG302
and more recently Red Cadeaux, with whom owner / trainer farmed the place in many top races.
@thejudge1….It’s funny but I keep getting a niggly feeling that I should put a small bet on Ulysses just for the silly idea that it’s a great name for a Derby winner, this has usually worked out and along with what you just said about him looking laid back on the Morning Line has convinced me..oh well find out later.
Just about to watch the Morning Line before racing gets underway…good luck judge and all.
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Stately, plump Buck Mulligan came from the stairhead, bearing a bowl of lather on which a mirror and a razor lay crossed.
Deauville out to 18/1 in a place!
Has he had a poor flight/trip over?Value Is Everything@thejudge1….It’s funny but I keep getting a niggly feeling that I should put a small bet on Ulysses just for the silly idea that it’s a great name for a Derby winner, this has usually worked out and along with what you just said about him looking laid back on the Morning Line has convinced me..oh well find out later.
Just about to watch the Morning Line before racing gets underway…good luck judge and all. Yes he does have a lovely head on him as well and a great nature… his Dam won her oaks on similar type of ground to today so fingers crossed. Also looked very impressive in his most recent gallop which you can watch on the racingpost website
The buck mulligan reference is presumably because he’s a character in a little known book by James Joyce
Wings Of Desire for me,I make him a 3/1 shot.I am a bit worried that he was 6/1 today.
If you go to back a certainty always buy a return ticket.
Stately, plump Buck Mulligan came from the stairhead, bearing a bowl of lather on which a mirror and a razor lay crossed.
though the name may rather have been after the Alfred Lord Tennyson poem:
” …..my purpose holds
To sail beyond the sunset, and the baths
Of all the western stars”[viz all the Sea the Stars progeny] ? ;o)
@thejudge1….It’s funny but I keep getting a niggly feeling that I should put a small bet on Ulysses just for the silly idea that it’s a great name for a Derby winner, this has usually worked out and along with what you just said about him looking laid back on the Morning Line has convinced me..oh well find out later.
Just about to watch the Morning Line before racing gets underway…good luck judge and all. Yes he does have a lovely head on him as well and a great nature… his Dam won her oaks on similar type of ground to today so fingers crossed. Also looked very impressive in his most recent gallop which you can watch on the racingpost website
Saw Ulysses at Newbury, impressed me as a top class horse in the making. Think it was Jonni I was with who asked “would he go for the Derby after that”? I thought from many trainers – yes – but it wasn’t normally something Sir Michael did. Fact he’s gone for it is a big positive. However, would Ulysses be going for this if Midterm ran well in the Dante?
Suspect not. This might come a bit too soon in his development, asking a lot to improve so much in one go. So 9/1 looks a bit short to me, but you never know.Good luck Jac/Judge
Value Is Everything
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