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His full brother Eagle top was a close second in the King George on soft ground.
I guess the thing with Wings of desire is to get him now. He’ll possibly go downhill later in his career like his siblings did, but all his relatives seemed to win something big in their early days, and Eagle top improved massively on what he had done the first time he was asked to go a mile and a half at a decent pace. Wings of Desire will have those conditions for the first time on Saturday and has achieved a lot more going into the derby than Eagle top had going into the King Edward stakes.
Put the Eagle top that won that King Edward in this years derby and I reckon he wins doing handstands. Is wings of desire as good? Or better? We’re about to find out.
The thing that concerns me with cloth of stars is that he’s had seven runs already- is there much improvement to come? Maybe he doesn’t need it.
Visually he didn’t blow me away and neither did any of the other trial winners either- I guess this is what makes it such an intriguing (or infuriating
) renewal, as it’s very difficult to be confident about anything.From everything that Aidan has said, they appear to have a lot of confidence in USAR’s ability, but his serious lack of experience means that they can’t have the same confidence as for Camelot or Australia. After all, his race on debut was a non-event (run in in slow motion as Aidan described it) and the horse learned nothing. Chester was his first proper race. There must still be a chance that the horse doesn’t run.
Wings Of Desire will go on the soft no problem. He’s by Pivotal and related to horses like Eagle Top who all but won the King George on softish.
“Work” is a completely different thing, some horses never shine in theirwork and according to Gosden Wings Of Desire is very much like that.
I think he is very much the horse to beat on Saturday.
I think everyone sees Pivotal as the sire and immediately thinks soft ground will suit. If that was the case why have Sariska and Eagle Top spent most of their careers running on a much sounder surface?
When Wings Of Desire made his debut you’d be expecting him to be suited by a soft surface given breeding.
Dam Gull Wing relished soft ground and dams sire In The Wings acted well on a soft surface too.
Wings Of Desire’s sire Pivotal’s progeny often like the surface, but nowhere near always.
Gull Wing’s dam Maycock’s Bay produced Sariska (to Pivotal) who also won the Irish Oaks on very soft going.
WOD’s sister The Lark was an unlucky 3rd in Talent’s Oaks and Park Hill winner on Good-Soft.
Brother Eagle Top was second in an officially “soft” ground King George, but the time was only 2.65 seconds slower than Racing Post standard. And with other races on the card of a similar time including the International Handicap just 2.51 secs slower – seems to suggest the true state of the ground somewhere between good and good-soft. I certainly would not be in a rush to back Eagle Top on genuine “soft” ground. Not that the words “genuine” and “Eagle Top” go together well.It’s good to look at sire, dam and siblings particularly when there is little evidence of suitable ground conditions while looking at a young horse, but the evidence is mounting.
If it were only the fact Wings Of Desire came on such a lot from a soft surface debut in a short space of time – I wouldn’t be too bothered.
If it were only Wings Of Desire’s “Breakfast With The Stars” unimpressive work on rain softened ground – I wouldn’t be too bothered.
If it were only his trainer saying Wings Of Desire “prefers fast ground” – I wouldn’t be too bothered.
If it were only the fact Wings Of Desire’s action is not that of a soft ground performer – I wouldn’t be too bothered…But it’s not only one, it’s all four… So I am bothered.
Wings Of Desire’s going requirements are not certain yet, I don’t dismiss breeding, but what the actual horse has done/does and to a lesser extent the trainer’s opinion – gives me the impression Wings Of Desire is probably better on a sound surface. Do think he could easily be the best horse in the race and with my ante-post bet will be very glad to be proven wrong.
Value Is EverythingThe soft ground is a concern for WOD for the reasons GT has stated above. However drying conditions will takeover now and I’m expecting good ground come 430 on Sat. If the warmer weather comes quicker (21 on Sat) we may even have good, good to firm in places (unlikely but a slim chance)
http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd?event_id=17352424&category=0
Moore to ride US Army Ranger and Algometer to run.
Robin Of Navan is available at as high as 10/1 for the French Derby, if anyone feels Cloth Of Stars can land the Epsom race and pay a compliment to the runner up to Andre Fabre’s colt last time.
I noticed one or two in this thread who felt Robin Of Navan my be favourite for the French race but that lies with John Gosden’s Foundation who will have his form evaluated by Wings Of Desire and Deauville on Saturday. The cautionary word on Foundation is that conditions in France seem set to be similar to the ones he struggled on in the Craven at Newmarket.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Deauville blue again on oddschecker, they haven’t heard that Frank Spencer is on board.
He’ll probably hold him up last and do that tactic he uses on the all weather and go around the entire field at Tattenham corner.Blackbeard to conquer the World
Deauville blue again on oddschecker, they haven’t heard that Frank Spencer is on board.
He’ll probably hold him up last and do that tactic he uses on the all weather and go around the entire field at Tattenham corner.I am very pleased with that news Nathan, he’s normally quite good on prominent runners like Deauville…
And if Frank is in front, at least he won’t just wave Ryan/US Army Ranger through like weak finisher Seam(ful)us.Value Is EverythingHow do you see the race unfolding tactically ginge…..?
Blackbeard to conquer the World
At a guess Nathan…
Unless Shogun is there as pacemaker I’d be surprised if Port Douglas doesn’t lead. Algometer and Deauville should be fairly prominent and if I were Stoute I’d want the inexperienced Ulysses to not have too many horses around him. Massaat raced towards the fore at Newmarket, but over this trip may be held up in an attemt to eek out stamina. In contrast, if I were Weld, I’d want the stayer Harzand more towards the front than last time – in first half of the field but will he be able to maintain that pitch? Moonlight Magic could well race in the first half too, Red Vernan in second half. Accross The Stars somewhere in mid-div. Biodynamic getting in the way. US Army Ranger will probably be further back than at Chester (tracked pace/stable companion in Vase), may be in mid-div this time unless stable companions set out to deliberately make an overly strong pace – in which case Ryan (and Jamie on Deauville) may settle in the second half with Wings Of Desire and Cloth Of Stars. Idaho could go anywhere, but suspect Coolmore will want one at the back in a “pick up the pieces” position – just in case they go an overly strong pace in company with Humphrey Bogart.
Value Is EverythingGiven its unique cambers, would soft ground at Epsom affect young horses much more than on other tracks?
I would have thought Epsom isn’t exactly a positive for an inexperienced horse (and some experienced ones) whether the ground is good or soft. I guess a tired horse might roll about that bit more on soft ground but the key factor would be the ground itself.
The prices this morning are awful.
Suddenly US Army Ranger is the second coming again now that we know Ryan is on board.
I think the rain put paid to any notion that he might ride Deauville. Despite winning on heavy ground on his debut, Aidan O’Brien went into the Racing Post Trophy telling us that he didn’t want soft ground, as he felt it didn’t suit the horse. On the day his fears seemed borne out as the horse was disappointing.
I think Deauville is way too short in places now with that in mind.
Some of these Micky Moose firms keep going 12/1 on Cloth Of Stars and that’s the value of you can get a proper bet on it.
Elsewhere there are maiden and handicap winners at silly prices. Algometer at 33/1 is at least some semblance of a bet worth making, although I don’t think it was much of a race he won last time out.
Other than that Wings Of Desire at 5/1 is the best of a bad bunch of prices. I find it hard to fathom that he’s only half a point shorter than maiden winner Ulysses in some places across the boards.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Looking at the forecast we should be free of any significant rain. I’m pretty sure the Derby will go off with good ground. It’s also pretty blowy round these parts today and with sunshine forecasted this pm we may get goodish ground tomorrow.
Waiting for morning prices now. Will any of the layers go 11/2, 6s for WOD? Here’s hoping so.
Port Douglas is likely to be at the head of the field and if he gets an easy lead will definitely be placed. Deauville I think will sit a couple of lengths behind port Douglas and if the ground dries out then with normal improvement from the Dante will go very close. Cloth of stars will probably sit mid division then try and come through. Will he do a pour moi. French form isn’t that strong to me so I doubt it but he may just be improving rapidly. Wings of desire I have to say I have my doubts as he struggled to get past deaville who will strip a lot fitter this time. Us army ranger to me looks the most like winner as he should improve a lot and will definetely stay the trip. Idaho looks the spanner in the works and undoubtedly can be in the shape up. It’s the toughest Derby to predict i can remember and can see a bunched finish. Aiden will have two or three there or thereabouts but whether it another sea the stars where his horses filled 2nd to 5th we shall see.
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