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Must have got on Deauville just in time by looks of it…..
Unless he ends up in France..
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Maybe we are overanalysing it
When someone as modest and unlikely as Gosden describes a horse as “freakish” we should all sit up and take notice.
Yes, the prices have changed.
Strangely enough, the fact that William Hill are the only firm offering 1/5th the odds a place hasn’t changed.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Having got all three colts Classics wrong I may well decide to sit this out rather than make it a four timer. As I said the bookmakers seem intent on making that an even more attractive option.
Anyway here’s my few thoughts.
Firstly, as everyone has said there is no standout which would always lead me to look for something at a longer price.
Given their inexperience I couldn’t have either of the front two at the prices. I would slightly prefer US Army Ranger as he looks as if he might be the more tractable. Heavy ground didn’t stop the horse in his maiden so something akin to good to soft shouldn’t really be an excuse.
All the juice has probably been sucked out of Cloth Of Stars. I doubt he is any superstar but of course he might not need to be.
Ulysees is a joke price. I don’t remember too many people shouting about him before Midterm was eclipsed. It is not even as if he is unbeaten. Even in an ordinary field he really should be 20/1.
Deauville has contracted perhaps because as Ginger suggested the threat of rain has led to the belief that Moore may take the ride. I can’t help thinking that if he was really fancied he would already have been that much closer to Wings Of Desire in the market.
Moonlight Magic landed the Derrinstown but they finished in a heap and perhaps he benefited from the run of the race. He initially cocked his head to one side when asked to win his race. Any rain would be a distinct negative and the stable form is not that great so probably not a given to confirm the form.
Massaat as I said elsewhere looks the part but it didn’t look a strong Guineas and in all likelihood he will actually need to improve for the step up in trip. It must be debatable whether he will even appreciate ten furlongs.
Harzand displayed a willing attitude to take the Ballysax but it is not that hard to see him getting lost on a quicker surface. It seems very unlikely that the Epsom ground will be heavy.
On their Chester running Port Douglas is a better horse than US Army Ranger. Despite his more exposed profile he should clearly be closer to his Chester conqueror in the market. Any rain would look to be a negative.
Idaho looks something of a rogue to me and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he ends up with a squiggle to his name. The preliminaries might be an ordeal.
Red Verdon is another horse who looks a shocking price. Yes, he is progressive but surely two small field handicap wins don’t make a Derby winner?
Of the others the clear standout for me – assuming he gets the green light – remains Algometer. Goodwood wasn’t anything like ideal but he again showed a very willing attitude to see off a classy looking Godolphin horse. Any rain should help his cause.
The Lingfield Derby Trial looked a very ordinary renewal and although Bravery has a pedigree that suggests he might well improve for a trip he will certainly need to.So at this stage my not very confident suggestion would remain Algometer with a possible saver on Port Douglas if the ground were no worse than good.
After the watching the trials again I am drawing to the conclusion that the Dante is the best run trial this year (as last).
Still not completely made my mind up yet but WOD is looking a better bet every day. He will stay and can only improve. Slight negative is that I don’t think he will get good to firm. Think it will be good ground both days although Sat is brightening up. Other slight negative is the size of the field but Gosden has described him as a very cool customer.
4 days to go
Compare it to 16/1 Port Douglas. Although PD appears “value” on “form” (if you’re judging purely one horse against another) other things including “sectionals” and fact he’s a front runner. Will he be a pacemaker going off at too fast a pace, sacrificed to make the sectionals favour other Coolmore horses? 16/1 doesn’t look so tempting, making me look elsewhere.
Or may be Port Douglas won’t run at all, very weak on betfair.
Value Is EverythingI could have done without the amount of rain they had, but I still
couldn’t be happier with MOONLIGHT MAGIC. It seems the closer we get
to the race, the more doubts there are arising from those at the front
of the market.Jim Bolger said “Moonlight Magic is in good form and on target for Epsom.
I don’t think the ground will get much worse than good, and I’ll be happy
if it is good.”Even if there is a bit more cut than “good” I wouldn’t be too worried, as
he has won Y/Sft and Gd/Y at 2. He wouldn’t want it worse than that, as his
only poor race was on heavy, but I don’t anticipate that it will be as bad as
that come Saturday. Having said that was a poor run, Bobby Bluebell mentioned
earlier on this thread that Bolger commented after the Ballysax that he had
a dirty scope, which might in part explain the run.14s, taken earlier, is looking good at the moment, and the 12s on offer now,
still looks value to me.Been looking at some of the videos/sectionals
A lot of people have said how impressive cloth of stars is
However when you look at a video of his win at Chantilly then compare it to Pour Moi (who won his derby) or Visandar (who came fifth in his) when they won the same race, then there’s no comparison. Cloth of stars nothing like so impressive. I’ve heard the jockey and trainer say he’s a different type to Pour Moi, translation: he’s not as good?!
Nothing US army ranger has done of the track or clock screams out at you. He ran considerably slower in his final two furlongs in his Chester vase win than Ruler of the world did when winning the same race. Granted, it was a different day but the ground was similar. Ruler of the world went off a much bigger price in his derby as well having won the Chester vase by six lengths.
Wings of desire was impressive on the clock at York. I think someone already posted a link to an article that Simon Rowlands wrote about that performance. Visually he doesn’t blow you away but the two extra furlongs almost certainly will bring about some improvement
Massaat does well on the clock which you’d expect but pedigree wise just can’t see him staying.
The interesting one on the clock is Red Vardon. Now he ran the final few furlongs quicker than the first few home did over a mile in the silver bowl later in the card. He was eased down as well in the final furlong
Granted it’s possible the pace collapsed in that race but you can see why they supplemented him.
Is Algometer a definite runner?
He is still among the 16 left in the French Derby.
Aidan took eight of his 10 out of the French Derby, leaving only Bravery and Black Sea in the field. Perhaps he is going in mob handed at Epsom then.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Is Algometer a definite runner?
He is still among the 16 left in the French Derby.
No, we are still waiting. Having suggested that stamina is his strong point it would seem a pretty strange decision to drop back in trip, even if the ground was soft. It is increasingly looking as if will be on the soft side of good at Epsom.
Bit surprised he hasn’t contracted given that 33/1 NRNB is available although Bet365 have trimmed their offer. He could easily go off 16/1.
Been looking at some of the videos/sectionals
A lot of people have said how impressive cloth of stars is
However when you look at a video of his win at Chantilly then compare it to Pour Moi (who won his derby) or Visandar (who came fifth in his) when they won the same race, then there’s no comparison. Cloth of stars nothing like so impressive. I’ve heard the jockey and trainer say he’s a different type to Pour Moi, translation: he’s not as good?!
The time of cloth of Stars race was just over Pour Moi’s course record time and possibly beat a very good horse in Robin of Navan who could be the French Derby winner.
Mr Dunlop on twitter seemed very relieved that Cloth of Stars was running at Epsom.
Does anyone else take the view that when Aiden has a lot of runners in the derby that’s normally a sign that none of them are any good?
I certainly take that view Judge. Not to say that none of them can win, just that he doesn’t know which one. I really can’t be having the Bolger horse – it looked a poor race to me last time – I respect Andre Fabre a great deal but I don’t think this one is a superstar. He may be good enough in what doesn’t look like the best of years. For me WOD has bags of potential over the longer trip as long as it doesn’t get too wet and Maasaat has the class to be involved if he stays.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Does anyone else take the view that when Aiden has a lot of runners in the derby that’s normally a sign that none of them are any good?
Throw as many darts as you can and one may stick in an open Derby. If their was a Golden Horn type he may not have taken the scatter gun approach as much. I take Deauville as their best now.
Does anyone else take the view that when Aiden has a lot of runners in the derby that’s normally a sign that none of them are any good?
Team Coolmore always have a great deal of middle-distance, well bred animals with Classic potential; far more than anyone else. Therefore every year they’ll have horses with potential but sometimes don’t run them all.
When AOB/Coolmore has a stand out performer – one that has (or almost has) already put up a performance of the quality needed to win a Derby… he runs that one, may be with one or two helpers. Keeping others with “potential” for future races.
When AOB/Coolmore does not have one who’s already put up a performance of that quality… he runs anything with possible potential to improve in to one of Derby quality…
That’s just common sense placing in what is the most important 3 year old race of the year..
A lot is made of him winning when one or two turn up; but it stands to reason when they have one with the form already good enough (often a short priced fav) – they will win it far more often than with their bigger priced horses. Does not mean we should rule out a Ballydoyle win.
Value Is EverythingI certainly take that view Judge. Not to say that none of them can win, just that he doesn’t know which one. I really can’t be having the Bolger horse – it looked a poor race to me last time – I respect Andre Fabre a great deal but I don’t think this one is a superstar. He may be good enough in what doesn’t look like the best of years. For me WOD has bags of potential over the longer trip as long as it doesn’t get too wet and Maasaat has the class to be involved if he stays.
Agree about the Bolger horse Joni, if you look at the race 66/1 pacemaker Saafarr was hanging on to 3rd until very close home. Winner tracked the pace and in a better position than most. Moonlight Magic is improving, but as the race was run could be flattered.
I do like the Fabre horse. May be not a “superstar” but highly unlikely to need to be one to win this year. All he needs to be is up to Group 1 quality. Am a little worried about temperament. I saw a recording of the Criterium:
It shows Cloth Of Stars at the start – bit nervy – considering free in the race and coming from virtually last… did well to finish as close to the enterprisingly ridden winner Robin Of Navan. Obviously goes well on soft ground and despite what happened stayed on well in the 10f 2 year old contest (so should stay unless pulling. Settled better in the Greffuhle:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCENAoJk4Hw
Fairly comfortably getting revenge on Robin Of Navan on firmer ground despite being one of the first under pressure. Looking like one who’ll be suited by further provided he is again amenable to restraint.
Kick Me! Am thinking of backing Barca!
As you know, am on Wings Of Desire and was pretty confident until the ground changed. Gosden said a firm surface suits and having seen WOD on “Breakfast With The Stars”:
…Unimpressive on a softer surface – seems to confirm the feeling he’s not as good on a softer surface. I’ve laid half of my bet back.
Massaat goes on a soft surface, if he’d been pushed along early in the Guineas before staying on – I’d be interested. But he travelled well at a mile and on what looks to be a soft surface Derby it’s likely to be akin to a 1m5f faster ground race in stamina terms. Massaat is unlikely to stay “1m5f” imo.
On a soft Surface Cloth Of Stars may well start favourite imo.
Deauville and Cloth Of Stars will probably be my main bets now.
If it keeps raining and turns soft or heavy will look at Harzand and Algometer at bigger prices.Value Is Everything
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