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Just seen that Cloth of Stars has been supplemented. That’ll do for me!
I was pleased to see that as well. I took a chance that they would supplement him as I felt 25/1 was too big in an open year.
Aidan still has seven in the mix and that tells me there is very little faith in any of them, including US Army Ranger.
I would be looking to take the presumed number 1 and probable mount of Ryan Moore on and if I were a bookmaker on the day.
I would feel (In the immortal words of Glaswegian comedy show “Chewin’ The Fat), like a bit of a “Fannybaws” if I couldn’t go 6/1 on US Army Ranger.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Question for all
How relevant would the sectional timings be for the Dante or any other trial for that matter? The trials are run at a lot slower pace and horses will have much more in their locker come 3, 2 or a furlong to go. Some respected observers are into their sectionals. WOD sectionals are quicker than golden horns (read that somewhere, I’ve not actually timed them). When I watched last years Dante back when GH stormed in Graham Cunningham just kept repeating “What’s the time?”.
Frankie doesn’t come across as positive as he might be on WOD. This is a concern. I (like most) just get get a solid angle on this race
Usually trials are slowly/steadily run, but not always Wasps.
There is not much relevence in the sectional timing of the Dante. It was not slowly run or overly fast, but just right – “truly run”. Gave no advantage to prominent (Deauville) or hold up horses (Wings Of Desire). That said, being truly run means it did favour stayers at the trip – ie more for those effective at 1m2f to 1m4f rather than speedier 1m to 1m2f sorts. Given Wings Of Desire and Deauville’s breeding they are likely to be at least as effective at 1m4f, former has already won over the distance. I’ve backed both. Hopefully it’ll be a sound surface to suit WOD.
Simon Rowlands piece on sectional timing of the Dante meeting is worth noting.
https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/features/sectionals/sectional-debrief-2016-york-dante-meeting-1452016Chester Vase was run steadier. So although Port Douglas probably should have won the race – as it was run – being far less strongly ridden in the final 50 yards and gave 4 lbs to the idling winner, so “on form” comes out of the race a “better horse” than US Army Ranger… In my opinion he’s missed his chance of beating the more highly regarded stable companion. Port Douglas had the advantage of being given a 3 lengths lead in a less than truly run affair. Added to that, he is far more exposed, 6 runs to US Army Ranger’s 2. Latter’s home reports suggest he’s probably capable of better form than so far shown in public too. However, US Army Ranger is 4/1 which looks very poor value and – I agree with Steve – one to take on. Compare it to 16/1 Port Douglas. Although PD appears “value” on “form” (if you’re judging purely one horse against another) other things including “sectionals” and fact he’s a front runner. Will he be a pacemaker going off at too fast a pace, sacrificed to make the sectionals favour other Coolmore horses? 16/1 doesn’t look so tempting, making me look elsewhere.
Value Is EverythingThe only horse to win pulling away from a previous Group 1 winner in a time only surpassed by Pour Moi. Trained by a Genius and will appreciate the step up in trip.
Cloth of stars Max Bet Win 7/1 NRNB
Good luck all :)
I see William Hill going 1/5 the odds for a place in the Derby. Every other firm on Oddschecker are 1/4 odds for the place.
The Racing Media should be drawing punters attention to this and shaming William Hill into falling in line.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I must admit this is the first derby I can remember where I’m seriously debating not having a bet.
Looks a complete lottery.
Looking through the favs I would say
US Army ranger is overhyped and didn’t impress at Chester. Did nothing so far in his two runs that suggests he has the kind of acceleration you need to be a derby winner
Same with Wings of desire for me. A solid horse but I just wonder if he has the brilliance to be a derby winner.
Ulysesses could just be overhyped
That leaves Cloth of stars, who I think is the most solid one. Impressed at breakfast with the stars so we know he likes the track.
Pulled like a train in the criterium as a two year old but still finished a running on second. Has stepped up on that this year. Think in a stronger renewal he could be passed over but in such a poor year he has very strong credentials indeed.
Looking further down I can’t have Massat as a derby winner at all, don’t think he’ll stay. O’Brien has a lot of other runners and can’t be bothered to list them all but it will probably be the same story, when he has so many runners he rarely wins, it’s not rocket science
Moonlight magic also solid but they were gaining on him I thought in the final furlong at Leopardstown, over further that would be a concern for me
No it’s cloth of stars, all in
I see William Hill going 1/5 the odds for a place in the Derby. Every other firm on Oddschecker are 1/4 odds for the place.
The Racing Media should be drawing punters attention to this and shaming William Hill into falling in line.
Is this really against the punter’s interests Steve?
William Hill are best price on 16 of the 18 runners (although joint top on most, so it’s not quite as good as that fact suggests). Suspect the reason for the two at shorter prices is heavy liabilities. One of the two they are shorter on is US Army Ranger @ 7/2, so doubt they’d get much each way interest in that one anyway. The 1/5th odds enables a bookmaker to give bigger prices on more outsiders – which is good for some punters, particularly Win Only, but also each way punters who prefer better odds for the win part of the bet. Their top prices include all 14 outsiders priced from 12/1 to 200/1, they can only afford to do this because liabilities for the places are less with 1/5th odds.
Are you saying William Hill should be “shamed” in to “falling in line” by offering shorter prices for outsiders Steve? Because that would be the inevitable result.
I personally do not want bookmakers to bet the same way, there are plenty of bookmakers with smaller prices/bigger over-rounds offering 1/4 odds for punters who want it. William Hill’s 1/5th odds give punters a choice.
Just wish they’d give me an account to profit from their bigger priced outsiders. :lol:
Value Is EverythingI see William Hill going 1/5 the odds for a place in the Derby. Every other firm on Oddschecker are 1/4 odds for the place.
The Racing Media should be drawing punters attention to this and shaming William Hill into falling in line.
Is this really against the punter’s interests Steve?
William Hill are best price on 16 of the 18 runners (although joint top on most, so it’s not quite as good as that fact suggests). Suspect the reason for the two at shorter prices is heavy liabilities. One of the two they are shorter on is US Army Ranger @ 7/2, so doubt they’d get much each way interest in that one anyway. The 1/5th odds enables a bookmaker to give bigger prices on more outsiders – which is good for some punters, particularly Win Only, but also each way punters who prefer better odds for the win part of the bet. Their top prices include all 14 outsiders priced from 12/1 to 200/1, they can only afford to do this because liabilities for the places are less with 1/5th odds.
Are you saying William Hill should be “shamed” in to “falling in line” by offering shorter prices for outsiders Steve? Because that would be the inevitable result.
I personally do not want bookmakers to bet the same way, there are plenty of bookmakers with smaller prices/bigger over-rounds offering 1/4 odds for punters who want it. William Hill’s 1/5th odds give punters a choice.
Just wish they’d give me an account to profit from their bigger priced outsiders.
That’s misleading Ginge.
They’re bigger because yet again they are one of the last bookies to go NRNB.
They are a two-bit bookie nowadays and I didn’t lose a seconds sleep the day they barred me.
Aidan has seven entered in the Derby and some of them won’t run. He has said he intends to have some in the Epsom Derby and some in the French Derby.
There is little point in having a horse at a slightly better price if it is then a non-runner and you lose your money.
With other firms than William Hill you are getting 1/4 the odds each-way and money back if your horse doesn’t run.
Just trying to offer my opinion here. I am sure readers can make their own mind up whose opinion makes more sense.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’m not big on the flat but I watched Cloth of Stars last two races on Youtube this morning and was very impressed.
In the Prix La Force he had to make up a lot of ground on the enterprisingly ridden runner up on heavy going and he did so comfortably under hands and heels in the manor of a very good horse.
In the Greffulhe he quickened up very smartly after getting a crack from Barzalona and settled the race in a matter of strides against another smart horse who will probably go off favourite for the French Derby.
Andre Fabre is one of the shrewdest trainers out there and if he has convinced the owners to supplement him,he must believe he has a serious chance of winning the race.
He’ll do me,had him at 7’s NRNB with Paddys.
Bookmakers not exactly making it tempting to have a bet.
Looks like four horses (Deauville, Harzand, Idaho and Red Verdon) have been carved up today. Presumably, tipsters have put up four different horses. Maybe they can put up a different four tomorrow? It was debatable if there was any value in the first place.
That’s misleading Ginge.
They’re bigger because yet again they are one of the last bookies to go NRNB.
They are a two-bit bookie nowadays and I didn’t lose a seconds sleep the day they barred me.
According to oddschecker, there are far fewer bookies going NRNB than there are all-in-run-or-not Wilsonl. So may be it is not my post that is misleading?
Value Is EverythingThe only horse they WH are a standout best price on at 17:32pm is Biodynamic
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Bookmakers not exactly making it tempting to have a bet.
Looks like four horses (Deauville, Harzand, Idaho and Red Verdon) have been carved up today. Presumably, tipsters have put up four different horses. Maybe they can put up a different four tomorrow? It was debatable if there was any value in the first place.
US Army Ranger friendless on betfair, out to 7.6/1. Bookmakers have pushed him out to 11/2 from around 4/1 this morning. Bookmakers may well be shortening horses because they fear one of the favourites won’t run. Or may be Ryan wil be on Deauville who’s been backed! The other favourite – Wings Of Desire – is also unlikely to be suited by a soft surface, so can understand why some outsiders have been shortened.
Also
With a lot of rain coming down at Epsom today and an overcast weather forecast – which may yet turn to a rainy forecast – placing an added emphasis on stamina. It is not surprising they are shortening those with form on a soft surface who are also likely to stay really well. Horses like the four horses you mention Stilvi – “Deauville, Harzand, Idaho and Red Verdon”. And yet, it could still be “good” ground, so can understand why they haven’t lengthened many horses yet. When there is uncertainty about the state of the ground over-rounds will increase. It is unfortunate, but if I were a bookie I’d do the same.
Value Is EverythingThe only horse they WH are a standout best price on at 17:32pm is Biodynamic
Prices have changed a lot from this morning Nathan.
Value Is Everything
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