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When I saw this thread I went away to do some maths. Here are the results.
Horse Racing = loss of 41% of my overall stake on this discipline
Golf = profit of 22%
Football = profit of 27%
Miscellaneous (including X Factor
) = loss of 20%I stake about three times as much on football as I do horses/golf and about ten times as much as I do on miscellaneous events so my overall profit is around 10.5%
Quick example;
Horses = 100 staked – 59 returned = -41%
Golf = 100 – 122 = +22%
Football = 300 – 381 = +27%
Misc = 30 – 24 = -20%Overall = 530 – 586 = +10.5%
I only bet smal stakes though, so a 10% profit equates to about a few nights out
I would need a 100% profit for a cheap holiday and about a 5000% profit to get to the Bahamas for a few weeks
If only I could stick to football and golf. Why do they have to have racing every day
Mike
Hello,
In order to attempt to make a profit during the flat season one has to discipline oneself.
Firstly, there ARE fixed races’ out there, so it is important NEVER have a bet in a race that has prize money to the winner less than £12K (you could set the threshold at whatever you like really. I used £10K, but have added £2k this year)
I may be wrong, but where the win money is attractive, fiddling may be reduced, plus horses’ do seem to run to form, and not "run up the field" to lessen their Handicap mark.
Try it for a month, you will find that there should be no excuses, outside injury, if your horse doesn’t win… the best horse generally wins..
regards,
doyley
I dont think there are actually that many fixd flat races, it is very seldom I would see a result that really shocks me. All racing is fixed to an extent, that is why you so often see horses backed across the boards, and horses drift massively because (if the gamble is legitimate) connections fancy that horse more than others fancy theres, and likewise when horses drift they are largely unfancied (or sometimes jsut from connections that dont gamble). The running of horses that are unfancied and ones that are strongly fancied makes a betting medium which is to an extent fixed towards a conclusion which goes against the form books.
However I dont think that it is really fixed anymore than that, even in races that are worth less than £5,000. But generally the lower the level of racing you go then the more chance that a horse who has never shown anything can find that little bit extra, get his act together, and piss over the field. Likewise the higher up in class you go the less margin for error there is, if you get boxed in a class 5 the he could still recover from it if he is a decent enough horse. In a group1 if you get boxed in, break badly, are mistimed, ridden incorrectly etc. then the chances are you will have to pull ou something really exceptional to get over it.
I have loads of different rules over the flat, like Doyley says it is better to stay disciplined. I for one don’t mind backing in the lower class races, because if you can find progressive sorts then you can get some sure things where they dont even have to throw in a decent performance to win and sometimes you can be getting some good odds too.
Bulwark
You commented that you rarely see a result that shocks you, and that is also my experience. And it seems that that was the case over fifty years ago, too – when looking through some threads in the "systems" section I came across this quote from a booklet of which I’ve now bought a copy ("The Judgement of Form", Marvex, 1950):
"… very seldom does the result of a race so confound the form student that he tears his hair; he may be surprised by a result but he has only to get out his form books to find substantiation therein in 99 cases out of a 100."
I also agree with you about race fixing. I tend only to watch races in which I’ve found a bet, and naturally am focused on what I’ve backed. From that narrow perspective I’ve almost always thought the race have been fair: indeed only once in many years have I felt that my selection might have been "pulled" (and that was in quite a valuable Flat handicap).
) = loss of 20%
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