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As much as I love Brentford Hope he’d have to improve a hell of a lot to mix it in grade 2’s
Even more shocking is his price at around 7/2
He’s not a slick hurdler and you wouldn’t want him fighting out a finish
Imagine he wins this, wherever next Champion Hurdle…
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
I think you’re underestimating handicap form, Nathan…
And he’s both a much better jumper and genuine racehorse these days.Value Is EverythingI hope you are right Ginger.. his run over in Ireland was better granted. However all his runs previously to that he’s always been near enough odds on or strong fav. He backs out of a battle more often than not. Will be put under pressure hurdling against slicker hurdlers. Out battled against hardened better quality of horse 🐴
Pleasing to read you rating him at this level because he is a favourite of mine, I just feel he needs to step up quite a bit at this level.Charles Darwin to conquer the World
I do rate him, Nathan.
At 10/1 Brentford Hope did well off a mark of 143 to get as close as 5 lengths trying to give 8 lbs to the all the way winner Daddy Long Legs in that handicap in Ireland. Beating the rest pretty easily. Winner went on to win a Grade 3 by 16 lengths.
Before that, Brentford Hope jumped well for most of the way, made very slight errors 3 out and two out when winning @ 5/2 in a Class 2 handicap at Haydock carrying 12-0 off a mark of 140. Travelling through the race with ease and quickening after the last.
Before that, at 11/10 won a Class 3 handicap at Newcastle off a mark of 135. Jumped well and made all, again displaying a fine turn of foot after the last.
Before that, at 11/8 was second at Newbury in a Class 3 handicap off 134. Came there going well at the last, couldn’t find a stride and made his only error there which in a slowly run race possibly cost him. However, he also took a strong hold in the race and that imo played a significant part in his downfall. Not having as much to offer in the closing stages.
Before that, yes he often appeared not to get home when 3rd in the Gerry Fielden at Newbury when 9/4 fav. But had been put up 11 lbs since winning his previous start.
The shortish odds have imo been to do with his progressive profile rather than being in poor races. 5 wins in the 9 runs since Derham has had him is a good strike rate. He’s settled better in his last couple of races too. Still can make an occasional slight mistake because he does not give the obstacles much air, but that in itself can be an asset especially on goodish ground like he’ll probably get on Saturday – as he’s quick. The sharp 2 miles of Wincanton could easily play to his strengths.
Brentford Hope is no Champion Hurdle winner, but would not need to be getting 6 lbs from the likes of Nemean Lion and Rubaud. Probably won’t need to step up much – if at all. With the latter odds-on and Brentford Hope 7/2 I’ll be hoping to be on Brentford to score the winner with a saver on the draw.
Value Is EverythingOnly four runners now so no each way.
If you’d like lay me some 11/4 win only…
Value Is Everything3 runner race now
Does Brentford Hope need a bigger field and a fairly decent gallop to settle in behind?
Fingers crossed for him would love to see him have a grade 2 to his nameCharles Darwin to conquer the World
Good point Nathan. Brentford Hope may well be a bit free if the other two don’t set a good pace. His two rivals both usually lead, so hopefully they’ll go a good pace despite the small field. That said, the two others could get together and organise a slow pace over the first couple of furlongs or go off fairly quick and then slow it right down.
Value Is EverythingAspire Tower for me. His form over hurdles at two miles is very solid. I can’t see Rubaud giving him 6 pounds. A Brentford Hope should be a big danger tough. Second at the Punchestown Festival while giving weight to Daddy Long Legs is good form.
Aspire Tower 9/2
Brentford Hope on the flat and over hurdles seems to prefer more cut in the going than what it looks like it will be tomorrow 😕
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
His best performance was last time out, Nathan. His second to Daddy Long Legs on only “Yielding”. Penultimate start’s time also suggested good-soft… So he does not need soft / heavy over hurdles. Although there is always a possibility “Good” going won’t suit; his action is more of a good ground horse than soft… I always think Jumping “Good” is closer to Flat Good-Soft anyway.
For the Flat campaign, I think you might be judging too much on wins. His 3 1/2 lengths 4th in a listed race at Windsor probably the equal to his soft ground victories. Winner that day Century Dream went on to be beaten less than a length in a Group 2 on his next start. Windsor form well and truly franked by Century Dream beating the Windsor 2nd Top Rank by almost the same distance. Brentford Hope himself on his next start a 3 lengths second in a Chantilly Group 3. The winner there Victor Ludorum had come from being beaten only 2 1/4 lengths in the Group 1 D’Ispahan, and 2 starts later placed in the Moulin. Incidentally, the horse who beat Century Dream in the Group 2 was Tilsit, who’d come from being beaten only a head in that same D’Ispahan. Windsor was officially Good, but the time beat the Racing Post Standard by 0.4 seconds, so I’d say pretty much definitely true good-firm. The Chantilly race also a bit quick to be as the official good-soft.
So yes, there is a chance “Good” jumping ground won’t suit him, but the chance of it doing so is less than you might think… And IF acting on the surface then the added test of speed Good ground on a sharp track brings should be in his favour.That said, Rubaud has the better chance.
Value Is EverythingI’ll be surprised if Brentford Hope runs today. Derham quoted in the Post “if it’s remotely quick, then he won’t run”.
Well the going at the last meeting on Oct 27th was good, good to firm in places, going stick 6.6.
Today the clerk says it’s good, but going stick is 6.7.
Lies, damned lies and going reports.
Jumping (true) good-firm would be more of a worry for Brentford Hope.
Value Is EverythingIn an alternative universe, this race would see Champion hurdle class horses lining up…..
Brentford Hope got closer than I expected him to considering the going, the small field and losing momentum at the last hurdle, still in with a chance after that but not the strongest finisher and He did have the weight in his favour.
if circumstances pan out in his favour (going and pace) I think perhaps he can mix it at grade 2 level
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
Yes. Going to the last thought Brentford had a chance – seemingly going the better – but even without the mistake I still made Raubund favourite to win. Knowing how much they tend to find for pressure. Although I do believe less of a test of stamina suits BH.
Value Is Everything
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