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Eider 2020

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  • #1482088
    Venture to CognacVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 17025

    One of my yearly traditions, not picking the winner of The Eider. Philson Run was a long time ago.

    https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/37/newcastle/2020-02-22/749558

    https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/vertem-eider-handicap-chase/winner

    It’s not often I’ll look to a market leader this far out, but I find it hard to be negative about Bigirononhiships. I liked the way he went about it in The Borders National, which showed this trip to be ideal for him. I’d imagine the rest of the season revolves around this, and the 8lb rise looks fair.

    I’ve been following Geronimo for a while, but he ran just “ok” at Haydock last time. I’ve question marks over the trip, and he also holds an entry for Haydocks National Trial, so highly unlikely that he’d be an early bet, but I’m still interested, especially with what he’s shown round here.

    Another with question marks over the trip is Glittering Love, but he was very progressive last year, and he was in process of running a big race when tipping up here behind Geronimo.

    Last but not least are the Irish pair, Killer Miller and the winner waiting to happen, Out Sam.

    Happy to leave be just now though.

    Shortlist
    Bigirononhiships 10’s
    Geronimo 14’s
    Out Sam 20’s
    Killer Miller 25’s

    #1482136
    Lemons68Lemons68
    Participant
    • Total Posts 426

    I’ve had an early bet here.

    Calipso Collonges at 14-1, I think he’s got a proper chance of taking this.

    #1482324
    All Jeff
    Participant
    • Total Posts 165

    Smooth Stepper doesn’t deserve to be the rag here. He’s not necessarily jumping out as the winner, but I don’t think he deserves to be 33-1, on his last 2 runs. I’ll bet a few pounds on him in the next week ew probably.

    #1482337
    He Didnt Like Ground
    Participant
    • Total Posts 361

    See The Dutchman is now in Tristan Davidson yard ,be interesting to see if there’s still a horse there

    #1482949
    All Jeff
    Participant
    • Total Posts 165

    I think I’ll have an early bet here on Crosspark at 16-1. I was going to wait until Monday, but having missed out on a probable Non Runner with Smooth Stepper, I’ll put a few pounds on.

    If Smooth Stepper doesn’t have too hard a time of it today, then I might look at him again if he made the line up.

    I also like Cle En Main at 20-1. If he doesn’t run at Punchestown on Tuesday, I’ll bet him early for this.

    #1482976
    All Jeff
    Participant
    • Total Posts 165

    VtC, you have to look at Donna’s Diamond here surely?

    #1483023
    Venture to CognacVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 17025

    Yeah, thought crossed my mind Jeff, but surely not after that today. I’d probably have to cover him if he went, but surely not after today?

    More to the point, what about Smooth Stepper now? Again, probably not, but you never know.

    #1483057
    BigGBigG
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6578

    I’m with Jeff here, I think that Crosspark at 16/1 with William Hill is
    a decent bet. I’ve mentioned before that he broke my heart, and didn’t do my bank
    balance any favours, when he nabbed Mysteree on the line in this last year. He
    nearly made up for it when 2nd in the Scottish national. He had 11lb lumped onto
    him as a result of those 2 races, but he was pulled up in two of his last 3 and only
    8th in the other, the Tommy Whittle. I backed him in that race, and before he hit
    the 3rd last hard he was in with a shout. He was given an easy time after that and
    coasted in 8th. He’s drooped 6lb and that puts him back on the same mark he was runner
    up in the Scottish National. This has obviously been a target so you can forget his
    recent poor form. I think he has a very real shout here.

    #1483062
    Lemons68Lemons68
    Participant
    • Total Posts 426

    I’m still happy with Calipso Collonges, but I’m adding Financial Outcome At 33-1 ew. He did it really well last time, and I think he’s very definitely overpriced.

    #1483068
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1464

    I’d be concerned about the ground for Crosspark. Isn’t he a good/good to soft horse at this level?.
    Should be well handicapped by the time Ayr comes round again if, as I suspect, he continues to struggle in the testing winter ground.

    As for the rest, there will be some horses going up in class and up in trip, and difficult to know how they will get on.

    The one I like in this is Prime Venture. I liked the way he was staying on at the end the of the Welsh National and is just 1 pound higher. In this field I would hope he would be able to be competitive. He needs the winter ground and I imagine with the weather as it is he will get it.

    He ran over 4 miles plus once before and unfortunately lost a shoe, still managed 4th though.

    #1483152
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1464

    Top weight is OR136. Poor race for a class 2. Must be the weather.

    #1483177
    Venture to CognacVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 17025

    Killer Miller would definitely be my main hope here, but with running at Punchestown tomorrow, I’ll concentrate on Donna’s Delight.

    Don’t know if I’ll bet him Antepost, but he tempted me at 10’s.

    #1483191
    BigGBigG
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6578

    Crosspark doesn’t head here now so I’m taking the chance that the very progressive
    Glittering Love at 16/1 but boosted 18/1 PP can take the extra distance in his stride.
    In not much more than a year he’s soared 33lbs up the handicap and hopefully he’s
    not finished yet. He was a bit tapped for toe last time at the course in 3rd over
    2m 7 1/2f, but wasn’t running out of steam so the extra distance could bring more
    out of him yet. Nicky Richards won this 2 years back with an old favourite of mine,
    Baywing, and he has taken exactly the same course with GL, running him in a 2m 7 1/2f
    race at Newcastle 3 weeks before the Eider. Baywing had only once gone beyong 3m
    (3m 2f) so Richards has carefully chosen the same route for GL. I think there’s a
    lot to like about his chances.

    #1483339
    moehat
    Participant
    • Total Posts 7810

    Is it this weekend? Mike’s up north at the moment and he said they’re expecting really bad weather over the next few days.

    #1483467
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1464

    Prime Venture has a 7lb claimer on. So will run 6 pound lower than in the Welsh National. Never backed the claimer’s rides before so don’t know if she’s any good.

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