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Ebor 2009

Home Forums Big Races – Discussion Ebor 2009

Viewing 17 posts - 1 through 17 (of 20 total)
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  • #12350
    moehat
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8373

    I know it’s difficult to work out without knowing for sure which horses are running, but I’ve got eyes on stalks from looking at this race. I know all the stats but I’m currently talking myself into horses that don’t fit in with the trends because I like them! Hits Only Vic [not classy enough; needs softer ground]; Munsef [too old but what a smashing horse]; Sesenta and Speed Ticket [not a race for Irish horses].Also Opinion Poll and Above Average. As is patently obvious I’ve not studied flat handicaps a great deal, but I’m having lots of fun with it. But obviously need help….

    #244320
    moehat
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8373

    I’ve backed Waldvogel twice marb, at 50’s and 33’s; he’ll either get placed…….or tailed off

    ..but just imagine how excited I’ll be if he wins!!! [ok I’ve only backed him ew 25 pence..yes pence at 50’s and pushing the boat out, 50 pence ar 33/1]. Cumani usually has a horse in the first 6, so I should get a run for my money.

    #244367
    Peruvian Chief
    Member
    • Total Posts 1931

    Gutted to see Wells Lyrical miss the cut – thought he was a very interesting candidate after running a blinder off a joke pace in the Pitmens last time out. Bet connections are ruing not picking up a penalty somewhere along the line and sneaking in.

    Will have to side with Munsef now – working mans price, progressive again (after being regressive!). Still 7lbs lower with his penalty than when highest rated some time ago – i think he’ll go close, and even if one of the hotpots lurking possibly a stone well in (AOB’s?) hack-up i reckon he’ll finish in the money.

    #244420
    moehat
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8373

    Does highest drawn stalls mean 1-7? If so the O’Brien horse looks unbeatable.

    #244426
    Stacelita
    Member
    • Total Posts 202

    The bookies love this kind of race because its hard to gauge all of the runners form and although changingoftheguard is improving and being well backed there are at least 4/5 horses who can beat him.He’s not value at the curent price

    #244437
    Gerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    Moe, the Number 1 stall is nearest to the inside rail on lefthand tracks such as York.

    #244610
    Zarkava
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4691

    The trends haven’t been much of a pointer to anything this month so far but they put Changingoftheguard and Manyriverstocross forward as the best hopes. With the latter drawn 20 and the former one of O’Brien’s few horses for the Ebor meet, I’m happy to go along with the ante-post gamble.

    #244613
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Deutschland (18/1) and Magicalmysterytour (25/1) for me.

    #244622
    Lewey
    Member
    • Total Posts 140

    I think the value has gone but I like the profile of Red Merlin.

    #244623
    thehorsesmouth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5552

    Doubt I’ll have a punt in this but I’d love to see Sesenta win. She is tiny but that doesn’t stop her. With a light weight, she should go close.

    #244639
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    How does the reserve system work in this? Does the reserve get in if there’s a non-runner tomorrow morning?

    #244652
    moehat
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8373

    I’m not sure why Sesenta’s price has been drifting today; I thought maybe there was a doubt about her running. I backed her last week but was going to have another bet today until I saw her price. My best win would be Waldvogel; the horse I’d love to win is Hits Only Vic along with Sesenta..disappointed that Munsef isn’t running because I wanted to see him. I still don’t understand the draw bias because I read that the last 8/11 winners were from a double digit stall. All in all I’ve probably backed most of the runners and if I break even I’ll be happy because I’ve had a smashing week studying the form of all of the runners. So excited I probably shan’t sleep tonight. Also, are the claiming jockeys allowed to use their claim, because if they do Sesenta won’t even know she’s got a jockey on her back?

    #244754
    thehorsesmouth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5552

    Yes, Gary Carroll is allowed to use his claim.

    It was interesting on Get On that Mullins couldn’t really pick one out of his two runners. Could be that he just doesn’t fancy either of them!

    Just had small e/w bet on Sesenta @ 33s

    #244756
    Goldikova
    Member
    • Total Posts 1537

    I took

    changingoftheguard

    the other day due to likely improvment and it’s handicap mark. So that’s where my money went. I just wonder if they haven’t run him for a while because they’re happy with the handicap. I could be totally wrong. If i was looking for an outsider it would have been

    Desert Sea

    . Looking at the bottom end of the odds,

    Som Talla

    looks alright at 50s, but might just end up being target practice from a couple out.

    #244774
    blackfingernail
    Member
    • Total Posts 108

    I’ve backed Waldvogel twice marb, at 50’s and 33’s; he’ll either get placed…….or tailed off

    ..but just imagine how excited I’ll be if he wins!!! [ok I’ve only backed him ew 25 pence..yes pence at 50’s and pushing the boat out, 50 pence ar 33/1]. Cumani usually has a horse in the first 6, so I should get a run for my money.

    lol, placed or tailed off, what else could happen.

    #244781
    Goldikova
    Member
    • Total Posts 1537

    Doubt I’ll have a punt in this but I’d love to see Sesenta win. She is tiny but that doesn’t stop her. With a light weight, she should go close.

    Hope you eventually put something on it mate.

    Well in aswell Moe.

    #244785
    RedRiot
    Member
    • Total Posts 870

    Not to be unfair on the winner, but Changingoftheguard to me looked the best horse in the race, and was unfortunate not to win from what he had to endure, reared in the stalls and then missed the break losing a few lengths, then found himself stuck in a maze of horses and finished like a bullet.

    WH and Ladbrokes must be happy they dont have to pay out thee to mystery punter.

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